We have reached the midpoint of the 2022-23 NHL season – at least for the Philadelphia Flyers – and while things have been stale in terms of record and placement in the standings, the Flyers have improved mightily from their first 20 games. Head coach John Tortorella was brought in to instill a new identity, culture, and most importantly a system. It took a little longer than we had hoped for but with in-season injuries meshing with preseason injuries, the Flyers needed time to adjust.
Now, by no means are we applauding a team that is near the bottom of the standings in the normal sense. We have to look at the Flyers through a different lens, a more realistic lens, and we have to preface everything based on the minimal expectations that we had entering the season – let alone from the end of last season.
From games 1-20, the Flyers were 7-8-5, scored 50 goals, allowed 65, took 573 shots versus their 675 shots against, had a 14.9% power play, and had a 74.2% penalty kill. The next 21 games the Flyers posted a 9-10-2 record, scored 64 goals to 68 against, took 642 shots on goal versus 627 against, had a 16.7% power play, and a 77% penalty kill. We can also look at it from a different perspective because from games 21-31 – an extension to the losing streak they went through in the first 20 games – the Flyers went 2-7-2 before rounding out with a 6-3-0 record.
The eye popping difference between the 2 sets of numbers are the analytics. In their first set of 20 games the Flyers had a CF (Corsi For at even strength: shots + blocks + misses) of 865 to their CA (Corsi Against at even strength: shots + blocks + misses) of 1100, for a grand total CF% of 44. Conversely in their last 21 games their CF is at 1004 to their CA of 992 for a CF% of 50.3, which is a huge jump. They have created more chances for than against in their last 21 games but also they have created 139 more chances at even strength than their first half numbers.
Their FF (Fenwick For at even strength: shots + misses) in the first 20 games stood at 638 to their FA (Fenwick Against: shots + misses) of 791 for a FF% of 44.6. In their next 21 games their FF rose to 761 to an FA of 711 for an FF% of 51.7, another large jump. If that’s not enough, then we can also look at the improved faceoff numbers as the Flyers went from 44.9% to 47.5% and their oZS (offensive zone starts) rose from 45.8% to 52.5%. Might not seem like much but it goes back to their improved play at even strength, puck possession, and being able to create more chances.
The only number that has decreased is their PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage) as they started the year at 99.5 and it has dropped slightly to 99.2. That can however be tied to the fact that Carter Hart was otherworldly in the first month which kept their save percentage up while their shooting percentage was very much down. They have taken 69 more shots and allowed 48 less shots than their first half, while also scoring 14 more goals for and allowing 3 more goals against.
What’s even more impressive is that in their last 9 games that stretches from the 20th of December to the 9th of January, where they have gone 6-3-0, they have outscored their opponents 37-27, out shot their opponents 279-276, have a CF% of 51.0, FF% of 50.6, FO% of 49.3, oZS% of 56.0, and PDO of 103.6. This includes the 2 losses to the Toronto Maple Leafs and Carolina Hurricanes on back to back days where they fell just short of completing a 3 and 4 goal comeback in the third period respectively.
We can compare some of these numbers with their 2021-22 season since it could be split in 2: Alain Vigneault and Mike Yeo. In the first 22 games with Alain Vigneault at the helm, the Flyers were 8-10-4, were outscored 72-51, outshot 752-691, a 13.4% power play + an 82% penalty kill, a CF% of 47.8, FF% of 47.9, FO% of 53.7, oZS% 48.5, and PDO of 97.9. A lot of those numbers were inflated thanks to their 5-2-1 start and having players like Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier, and even Ryan Ellis for a short while.
Mike Yeo coached 60 games, went 17-36-7, was outscored 226-169, outshot 2033 to 1848, had a 12.2% power play + 72.9% penalty kill, a CF% of 46.6, FF% of 46.6, FO% of 51.6%, oZS% of 46.1, and PDO of 98.8. Without Claude Giroux, Derick Brassard, Justin Braun, and then partially without Carter Hart and Cam Atkinson, the Flyers finished the season 4-12-0 with similar analytical numbers regardless: CF% was higher at 47.8, FF% was higher at 48.2, FO% dropped understandably so to 48.8%, and PDO also dropped with Martin Jones playing the bulk to 96.3.
What do all these numbers actually mean? Well, for starters the Flyers were expected to improve in 2022-23 with a more healthy lineup – which meant Kevin Hayes, Sean Couturier, and Cam Atkinson were going to be ready for the season opener. Instead they only got a clean bill of health for Hayes and then started the season without Rasmus Ristolainen, lost James van Riemsdyk for 20 games, and had Scott Laughton and Travis Konecny miss some games as well. The younger players took a little longer to adjust to Tortorella’s system which has always been about puck possession, smart hockey, and aggressive nature. We have seen that transition in the past month, which is why they are finally winning games.
Other coaches, players, and broadcasters will tell you the Flyers are a tougher team to play against – which was the mission from the outset – and they don’t give up, they don’t let up, and their feet are always on the pedal even when the game looks lost. Some of their numbers have jumped up a staggering amount like their CF% and FF% – 6-7% – which just shows that they are creating more chances, firing more shots on goal, are in the offensive zone a lot more, aren’t as opportunistic as they first were when they were scoring 2-3 goals on 14-15 shots, and are also allowing a little less than before.
This isn’t a team that’s filled with talent, there are plenty of holes on both the offence and defence but Tortorella has done a lot with a lot less before and he’s doing that again here in Philadelphia. These were the improvements that we were looking for from the beginning of the season. Dollars to doughnuts, I don’t think anyone had the Flyers making the playoffs this season, let alone finishing in the top-20. They have an outside chance of that, which of course mitigates their percentage of landing the #1 overall pick in the draft lottery.
The Flyers will tell you they don’t care about that, they don’t care to tank, they don’t listen to any of that noise, and they’re just trying to improve as a club as they finally form an identity and culture – something that has been missing since the late 2000s and early 2010s.
