The 2022-23 regular season has come to a close, and the Philadelphia Flyers have officially finished 26th out of 32 teams and have the 7th-highest odds for the number one overall pick ahead of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft that will be held on the 8th of May.
Unlike previous years, the buzz around this draft is through the roof because generational talent, Connor Bedard, will be front and centre for whoever wins the lottery.
The basement of the NHL’s standings belonged to the Columbus Blue Jackets, Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks, and the San Jose Sharks – far and away the worst of the bunch as they barely scraped together 60 points. The 32nd-ranked Ducks finished 23-47-12, the 31st-ranked Blue Jackets finished the season 25-48-9, the 30th-ranked Blackhawks finished 26-49-7, and the 29th-ranked Sharks finished 22-46-16.
In other words, 32nd place gets you a 25.5% chance at first, an 18.8% chance at 2nd, and a 55.7% chance at 3rd. 31st place gets you a 13.5% chance at 1st, 14.4% chance at 2nd, 32% chance at 3rd, and 40.2% chance at 4th, and 30th place gets you an 11.5% chance at 1st, 11.5% chance at 2nd, 7.4% chance at 3rd, 40.7% chance at 4th, and a 28.8% chance at 5th.
The Blue Jackets pulled out an overtime victory against the Pittsburgh Penguins in game 81 to pull away from the Anaheim Ducks for 32nd place. The Blue Jackets probably didn’t expect the season to unfold the way it did, considering they made the big splash for Johnny Gaudreau over the summer. They had a laundry list of injuries to contend with and had only 7 players skate in 70 games or more, including 6 goaltenders making an appearance between the pipes. Patrik Laine only played in 56 games, Zack Werenski played in 13 games, and Jakub Voracek only played in 11 games and his contract was traded to Arizona – to name a few.
For the 26th-ranked Flyers, they have a 6.5% chance at 1st, 6.9% chance at 2nd, 44.4% chance at 7th, 36.5% chance at 8th, and 5.6% chance at 9th. The Flyers weren’t going to be good this year, but they also weren’t going to be as bad as some of the teams that were tanking for Connor Bedard.
As for the prospects who will be available after Bedard, there are several top-tier names, including Hobey Baker Award winner, Adam Fantilli. Matvei Michkov, Leo Carlsson, Zach Benson, Will Smith, and Oliver Moore are also up for grabs, to name a few.
If the Flyers Won the Lottery
With only a 6.5% chance at winning the sweepstakes for Bedard, the Flyers still have a shot and that’s better than nothing. In 2022, the 32nd-ranked Montreal Canadiens won the lottery and New Jersey jumped from 5th to 2nd. In 2021, the 31st-ranked Buffalo Sabres won the lottery with the Seattle Kraken jumping from 3rd to 2nd ahead of their inaugural season. In 2020, “Team E” that had a 2.5% chance at winning took claim of the first pick, 4th ranked Los Angeles jumped to 2nd, and 3rd ranked San Jose claimed the third pick. In 2019, the 3rd-last New Jersey Devils won the lottery, the 6th-last New York Rangers jumped to 2nd, and the 12th-last Chicago Blackhawks jumped to 3rd. The lottery has changed over the years, and they’ve made it so the bottom 3 teams have a better shot to claim their picks, but the Flyers would be in historic territory if they jumped from 7th to 1st.
Connor Bedard has been touted as the next big thing in hockey and he is likened to Connor McDavid. It’s hard not to fall for that narrative after he scored 12 goals and 28 points in just 15 games for the Regina Pats in 2020-21 when he was only 15 years old. He then scored 51 goals and 100 points in 62 games the following season and has only gotten better with 71 goals and 143 points in only 57 games this season. He added 10 goals and 20 points in 7 games during the playoffs – which was apparently not enough to advance to the next round – and let’s also not forget his historic World Junior Championship where he tallied 9 goals and 23 points in only 7 games.
For reference, McDavid scored 25 goals and 66 points in 63 games as a 15-year-old for the Erie Otters, then scored 28 goals and 99 points in just 56 games the following season, before finishing things off with 44 goals and 120 points in only 47 games. McDavid also added a ridiculous 21 goals and 49 points in 20 playoff games in his final postseason run with the Otters. Since then, he has been unstoppable with 303 goals and 849 points in 568 NHL games, including 21 goals and 55 postseason points in 37 games. If Bedard is anything close to McDavid, it would be the ultimate gift, and for the Flyers it would turn around their fortunes on a dime, however they only have a 6.5% chance.
If the Flyers Jump Up to 2nd Overall
Losing out for Bedard would hurt, but at the 26th spot in the standings, that was always going to be a longshot. Another long shot would be if the Flyers jumped from 7th to 2nd with a 6.9% chance of that happening. He’s no Connor Bedard, but Adam Fantilli is still an elite talent that would jettison the Flyers’ rebuild with a snap of a finger.
The Nobleton, Ontario native played for the University of Michigan this past season and ended up taking home the Hobey Baker Award, which is awarded to the best collegiate player in the NCAA. As an 18-year-old, Fantilli scored 30 goals and 65 points in just 36 games. He was tied for 1st in goals alongside senior Jason Polin of Western Michigan, and junior David Silye of Minnesota State. He was 5th in assists behind freshman Logan Cooley, sophomore Collin Graf, sophomore Luke Hughes, and freshman Ryan McAllister. He sat at the top in points with 65, 5 ahead of Cooley, while also possessing the highest points per game average at 1.81, which was 0.25 higher than 2nd-place Sean Farrell.
As a member for Team Canada at the World Juniors, he was relegated to the 4th line, which usually happens to first-timers in the U-20 tournament unless you’re Bedard or McDavid – but even Bedard wasn’t given preferential treatment in his first go-around. At 6’3″ and 195 lbs, Fantilli has one of the most NHL-ready frames in his draft class, he is a centre – which is the case for a lot of players in the top-7 – and he is far above the other remaining prospects to be the 2nd overall pick.
At one point during the season, there were some people placing Leo Carlsson above Fantilli and even a year ago, Matvei Michkov was almost rivalling Bedard for the top spot. Both players fell off, but it had more to do with the ascensions of Bedard and Fantilli than anything else.
Carlsson could be a sleeper pick and while his stats aren’t as eye-popping as Fantilli’s, let’s not forget he played in the SHL with grown men. For Orebro HK, Carlsson scored 10 goals and 25 points in 44 games, while adding 1 goal and 9 points in 13 postseason appearances. He added 3 goals and 6 points in 7 games for Sweden at the World Juniors and 10 goals and 17 points in 15 games for Sweden U20 in all international play.
Similarly to Carlsson, Michkov played for Sochi HC in the KHL and tallied 9 goals and 20 points in just 27 games. The competition is fierce, steep, and more challenging in the European leagues than they are in the junior circuits in North America. The KHL and SHL are as close to the NHL as you can get at this stage in their development, and both players are names to look out for should things change at the top of the leaderboard.
If the Flyers Land 7-8-9 in the Draft
If Bedard goes 1st, Fantilli goes 2nd, and Carlsson and Michkov round out the top-4, picks 5-9 become very interesting and it all boils down to team and possible fit. Will Smith, Zach Benson, Oliver Moore, Andrew Cristall, Eduard Sale, Dalibor Dvorsky, and even Ryan Leonard are all names to consider.
Standing at 6’0″/172 lbs and playing the pivotal position in centre-ice, Will Smith had a fantastic season for the U.S. National U18 team and the USNTDP Juniors. He scored 42 goals and 104 points in 52 games for the U.S. National U18 Team of the USDP and then added 15 goals and 42 points in just 20 games for the USNTDP Juniors of the USHL. He is committed to join Boston College of the NCAA in 2023-24. Many scouts tout him as one of the most gifted and talented offensive players in the draft. His puck possession, puck handling, deking, passing, and playmaking are off the charts. He is a strong skater, which is usually a hindrance for a lot of young potential draftees, and many have tabbed him as a “prolific” scorer.
Zach Benson, a C/LW for the Winnipeg Ice of the WHL, had a fantastic season, finishing 3rd in points behind Bedard and Chase Wheatcroft. In 60 games, he scored 36 goals and 98 points and was a ridiculous +68, which was 29 points higher than Bedard in plus-minus. He stands at 5’10” and only 160 lbs, but the diminutive forward is a top-6 ranked player in nearly every reputable list. Many scouts have pointed out his sensational two-way play, he’s energetic, and his work ethic is off the charts. He might not be the best skater, but his puck handling and shot should outweigh the one con. He’s also known to be one of the “smartest” players in the draft and that bodes well with a lot of general managers and coaches.
Oliver Moore is another member of the U.S. National U18 Team and the USNTDP Juniors. The 5’11”, 176 lb centre scored 26 goals and 64 points in 53 games for the U.S. National U18 Team and then added another 8 goals and 25 points in 23 games for the USNTDP Juniors. He has committed to the University of Minnesota in 2023-24. Some of the things that most scouts talk about with Moore’s game is his elite skating, sensational speed, and two-way game. Similar to Benson, Moore is energetic, his puck possession is fantastic, he has a great one-timer, and is very “clever”.
Andrew Cristall of the Kelowna Rockets improved from his breakout 28-goal and 69-point season from 2021-22 to a 39-goal and 95-point campaign in 2022-23. Standing at 5’10” and 170 lbs, Cristall is one of the few wingers in the projected top-10. He is known to be a “magician” with the puck, his playmaking and puck handling are one of the best of the draft, and his hockey IQ is believed to be at the top of the leaderboard as well. Many are worried about his size, but in the same breath they believe he can overcome his slight frame with the immense amount of skill he possesses. At 5’10”, he still has a lot to fill out, and luckily he’s only 18-years-old with plenty of time to do that.
After the 2022 NHL Entry Draft and the influx of Slovakians at the top of the draft, Dalibor Dvorsky will join Juraj Slafkovsky and Simon Nemec as top-10 picks from Slovakia. He stands at 6’1″ and 201 lbs, can play both the centre position and right wing, and spent some time in the Swedish 1st league with AIK. He scored 6 goals and 14 points in 38 games in the Swe-1 league but added 10 goals and 21 points for AIK Jr. in the Swe-Jr circuit. For Slovakia, he represented his country at the World Juniors for both 2022 and 2023 tournaments for a combined 2 goals and 5 points in 9 games. He is a prototypical power forward, uses his body and frame to his advantage, and while his stock has plummeted in recent months, many believe he has all the tools to be a steal in the 7-8-9-10 range.
Eduard Sale stands at 6’1″ but only weighs in at 165 lbs, plays the right wing position, and hails from the Czech Republic. He played in 43 games in the top-ranked Czech League for HC Kometa Brno, where he scored 7 goals and 7 assists for 14 points. He has slipped in the draft rankings, similar to Dvorsky, and part of that has to do with his diminutive size. He has shown great puck handling skills, puck possession is a forte, and has a great eye for passing especially on the power play along the wall. He’s got great skating ability, has great speed for someone of his size, and has soft hands. Offensively he’s gifted. but has a lot to work on in his defensive game and has plenty of time to build into his 6’1″ frame.
Another member of the loaded U.S. National U18 Team and USNTDP Juniors class, Ryan Leonard is a name that hasn’t gotten a lot of media attention, but he is very crafty, offensively gifted, and should be given a look if the Flyers drop to 9th. He scored 42 goals and 76 points in 49 games for the U.S. National U18 Team and then another 11 goals and 20 points in 17 games for the USNTDP Juniors. He has committed to Boston College next year to join Will Smith. He is known to have a lethal wrist shot, is a strong skater, has a ton of energy, and is essentially a very well-rounded player with offensive upside. Scrappy, competitive, and a good motor are usually ways to describe Leonard’s game.
Connor Bedard or Adam Fantilli would be the ultimate dream for the Flyers coming out of the draft, but even if they stay at 7th or drop a few spots to 8th or 9th, they should come out of it with a very good prospect to add to the current mix that already includes Cutter Gauthier, Tyson Foerster, Bobby Brink, Elliot Desnoyers, Emil Andrae, and Samuel Ersson.
If players like Carlsson, Michkov, Smith, or Benson drop from their projected lofty rankings, the Flyers should consider themselves very lucky as they will be able to draft a player that should turn their rebuild on a dime. Moore, Cristall, Dvorsky, Leonard, or Sale are good players as well and shouldn’t be seen as let downs if the Flyers drop a slot or two after the lottery.
All stats listed courtesy of hockeydb.com
