As we have already covered over the past few weeks, the first round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft could throw us a few curveballs but it all starts with the uncertainty that lies around Matvei Michkov.
The Russian phenom was at one point neck-and-neck with the sensational Connor Bedard, but then fell in around the 3rd pick range. Over the last few weeks, let alone months, the Russian factor is encompassing him like a dark cloud and there’s belief that he could drop out of the top-3 and perhaps the top-6.
Russians have been a case-by-case situation for years now but the only real issue surrounded Ivan Fedotov. Kirill Kaprizov and Ilya Sorokin made it over the pond after playing out their contracts in the KHL – something Michkov has to oblige by until 2026.
The top-3 is all but set in stone unless the Columbus Blue Jackets divert at the very last second: 1) Connor Bedard to the Chicago Blackhawks, 2) Adam Fantilli to the Anaheim Ducks, and 3) Leo Carlsson to the Columbus Blue Jackets. The San Jose Sharks, Montreal Canadiens, and Arizona Coyotes follow suit before the Philadelphia Flyers at 7.
Will Smith is almost a foregone conclusion in the top-5 and if Michkov is taken within these 3 selections, then one of Zach Benson or Ryan Leonard will be available for the Flyers. However as we near closer and closer to the 28th of June, Leonard might not escape the clutches of the top-6. If that is the case then Benson, Nate Danielson, Dalibor Dvorsky, and Oliver Moore will be the best forwards available.
We’ve covered stories on Will Smith, Ryan Leonard, Matvei Michkov, Dalibor Dvorsky, and Oliver Moore – seemed fitting to give Benson and Danielson a shout out with the possibility of either one being drafted at 7.
Going back to Michkov, he is supposed to attend the draft in person but Elliotte Friedman alluded to the fact that teams that went to Russia to meet him were turned away for appointments and could only catch him post-game for a brief conversation. Some believe he’s trying to influence his own draft stock to land in a preferred destination – Washington who picks #8 could be seen as that destination but once again, just rumours at this stage.
It seems laughable and almost crazy to think Michkov can drop that far and it would sting if the Flyers had a chance to draft him but chose to divert. Nevertheless, you can’t fault the hesitancy. It seems like most of the KHL prospects just need to complete their contracts before jumping ship to the NHL and everything should be fine after that.
Putting all that aside, if the Flyers have the opportunity to draft Zach Benson they should definitely give it some serious consideration. The Winnipeg Ice product scored 36 goals and 98 points this season after scoring 25 goals and 63 points last season in just 58 games. Benson finished 3rd in the WHL in points behind only Bedard and Chase Wheatcroft, was 7th in assists, and was only 43rd in power play assists showing that he’s very capable 5-on-5.
Tony Ferrari of The Hockey News: “One of the smartest players in this year’s draft class, Benson plays the game two or three steps ahead of the rest of the players on the ice. Whereas most players have a Plan A and maybe a Plan B, Benson usually has a Plan C, D, and E.”
Scott Wheeler of The Athletic: “He’s the kind of player who fills the stat sheet and elevates his linemates in subtle ways. Increasingly, I’ve been impressed by his agility in and out of breaks and cuts (his skating is an almost underrated asset for him and particularly impressive through his edges and crossovers, though he can get going the length of the ice, too).”
Corey Pronman of The Athletic: “He’s a responsible, detailed defensive player who is an asset without the puck. His frame, combined with a lack of separation speed, is a concern, though, for his NHL projection even though he’s got good quickness in tight.”
Chris Peters of Flo Hockey: “He challenges opposing players with aggressive stick checks and body position. What makes that skill even more effective is how quickly he can force turnovers and immediately make a dangerous play off a pass or shot.”
Recruit Scouting put him in as #4, EliteProspects, Bob McKenzie, and Dobber Prospects has him at #5, Consolidated Rankings and McKeen’s Hockey has him #6, Sportsnet put him at #7, and Craig Button put him in at #14. All the draft boards available on EliteProspects has him no lower than 9th, except for Button’s #14.
He stands in at 5’10 and only 159 lbs but is a magician with the puck, excellent playmaker, great vision, and his speed is top notch – which is always a boon for hockey teams that lack talented players. At one point it seemed nearly improbable that he would fall out of the top-5 but he will drop into the Flyers lap if other teams see Ryan Leonard as the better prospect.
If Michkov isn’t drafted in the top-6, then all bets are off because Benson will most definitely be off the table alongside Smith, Leonard, and the aforementioned top-3 locks. Should Daniel Briere and company balk at the incredibly talented Russian, that could leave Nate Danielson as a preferable choice.
The Brandon Wheat Kings product is coming off a season where he scored 33 goals and 78 points in 68 games. His numbers don’t stick out as much as some of the other players like Benson, Smith, Leonard, or even Riley Heidt, but Danielson is a strong centre, stands in at 6’2 and has plenty of time to grow into his frame.
Tony Ferrari of The Hockey News: “Danielson does an excellent job of providing defenders an outlet in their own zone before bursting through the neutral zone, building speed and generating chances off the rush. Danielson is a quick-strike attacker who plays a north-south game with developing confidence in his puck skill.”
Scott Wheeler of The Athletic: “Danielson’s a pro-sized, hardworking pivot who can skate and excels in driving through the middle of the ice, pushing tempo and playing with energy.”
Corey Pronman of The Athletic: Danielson is a well-rounded center who has a lot of NHL traits. He’s a big body who skates and competes well, which when combined with his offensive touch, allows him to be effective in a lot of situations.”
Chris Peters of Flo Hockey: “Danielson has a good frame, battles well, has a good understanding of how to play off the puck and has precision with the puck on his stick. He is not always flashy, but he is efficient.”
EliteProspects: “Danielson was a creator of rush offence, building speed beneath the puck, charging through the neutral zone with possession, carving the ice up with powerful, agile crossovers, and turning the corner on opposing defenceman. Equal parts natural speed as a skater and handling skill made that a relatively effective signature move for the Wheat Kings centre.”
Danielson is a more well-rounded prospect than the aforementioned offensive dynamos. He has good vision and playmaking abilities, has a good shot, but his strengths lie in his outlet passes, face-off acumen, and defensive game. He is very good off the puck, understands the game due to his high IQ, and has the ability to become a real two-way threat in the NHL. He might not come in with 95-100 points like the other WHLers but he will still put up good numbers mixed in with his strong two-way game.
A player of that ilk has driven Flyers fans crazy over the last decade and a half. Ron Hextall loved drafting his two-way players who were responsible on and off the puck but it rarely worked out in the long run. The Flyers have lacked game changers for that very reason but Danielson is rated as a extremely safe pick in contrast to Dvorsky and Moore – both of whom will also be available.
It won’t be a popular pick because the ceiling is higher for players like Dvorsky or the numbers are more present and prevalent with players like Moore. His advantages over a lot of the top-10 picks come in his size, his position, and his two-way game. There’s a good chance he can slide a little further down but it would be a shock if he weren’t selected within the first 11-12 picks.
Missing out on Smith, Benson, and Leonard would be tough to swallow and at that rate, I think you select Michkov no matter what. He is too good of a prospect to let slip away, especially to your divisional rival in Washington that has been a haven for Russian players and still plays host to one of the best of all time in Alexander Ovechkin.
With two picks in the first round, the Flyers can be “risky” with their 7th overall pick and still land a very good, safe, and talented player at 22.
Ending the night with Benson would be great, ending the night with Danielson is still going to be a plus for a pipeline that severely lacks top-end players right now. It all boils down to how teams 4-5-6-7 value Michkov and from there, the dominos will fall.
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