The Philadelphia Flyers have held onto the third and final spot in the Metropolitan Division for quite some time after jumping to an incredibly surprising 25-14-6 start to the regular season.
No one gave the Flyers a sliver of hope to make the postseason but as we enter the dog days of March, they are still in prime position to make the playoffs for the first time since the COVID bubble. But their recent slump has aided a few teams to catch up in the standings.
Since their hot start to the season, the Flyers have gone 11-12-3, while being outscored 95 to 76. After losing 5 straight games heading into the All-Star break, they came back and won four straight before essentially alternating between wins and losses. A big reason for their sudden drop in play is tied down to the fact that 3 regulars on the back-end were placed on IR one after the other and another was shipped to Colorado ahead of the trade deadline.
Rasmus Ristolainen last played on the 10th of February, Jamie Drysdale has been out since the 25th of February, and Nick Seeler has been out since the 4th of March. The Flyers had to trust two bottom-pair regulars with a heavier workload, they had to call up two prospects from the Lehigh Valley Phantoms, and they acquired a depth defenseman in Erik Johnson on the 8th of March to try and solidify the defensive corps with so many regulars on the mend.
Marc Staal re-entered the lineup the game after Ristolainen got hurt and has 3 assists in 15 games, is a plus-3, and has averaged 14:26 TOI. He has retreated back to the press box in the last week or so in lieu of Adam Ginning. Johnson has played in 7 games upon being acquired from the Buffalo Sabres and has averaged just a shade under 17 minutes a night, has no points, has a minus-5 but has 24 hits to go along with 14 blocked shots.
The three prospects have fared a little better than the veterans with Egor Zamula being thrusted into a larger role, skating 16:31 ATOI over his last 15 games to go along with 3 assists and a plus-2 rating. Ronnie Attard has 1 assist in 8 games to go along with a plus-1 rating and 19 hits while averaging just under 16 and a half minutes of ice time. Adam Ginning has seen the least amount of games but has 1 assist, 12 hits, and 5 blocked shots while averaging 16 minutes a night in 4 games.
There has been very little word on when the 3 injured defensemen might make their returns, but there was always the possibility that Ristolainen was going to be out a lot longer than the initial 2-3 week diagnosis and that Drysdale could have suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Nevertheless, they have had to truck through the gauntlet – with games against Toronto, Boston, Tampa Bay, Florida, Carolina – and have gone 4-3-1 with 2 more games remaining against Florida and the New York Rangers.
The Washington Capitals head into Sunday’s slate of games with 2 games in hand and are 4 points back of the Flyers and have a near identical record of 34-26-9 with 30 ROW. The New York Islanders thrashed the Winnipeg Jets – who are playing the Capitals today – yesterday by a score of 6-1 to end their 6-game losing streak and have 1 game in hand but are 6 points out. If we venture out to the Wild Card – in case the Flyers slip out of the Metropolitan Division – the Detroit Red Wings trail the Flyers by 3 points but have more ROW (34 to 32).
The Flyers and Red Wings each have 11 games remaining on the docket, while the Islanders have 12 and the Capitals have 13. Detroit plays Washington two more times while having no more games against either the Flyers or the Islanders. The Islanders only play the Flyers once more and the Capitals have 2 games against the Red Wings and a game against the Flyers to finish off the season on the 16th of April.
The upcoming schedule for all four teams are as followed (highlighted in black are current playoff teams):
The New York Islanders will play against:
New Jersey
Florida
Tampa Bay
Philadelphia
Chicago
Columbus
Nashville
New York Rangers
Montreal
New York Rangers
New Jersey
Pittsburgh
The Detroit Red Wings will play against:
Washington
Carolina
Florida
Tampa Bay
New York Rangers
Buffalo
Washington
Pittsburgh
Toronto
Montreal
Montreal
The Washington Capitals will play against:
Winnipeg
Detroit
Toronto
Boston
Buffalo
Pittsburgh
Carolina
Ottawa
Detroit
Buffalo
Tampa Bay
Boston
Philadelphia
The Philadelphia Flyers will play against:
Florida
New York Rangers
Montreal
Chicago
New York Islanders
Buffalo
Columbus
Montreal
New York Rangers
New Jersey
Washington
At first glance, the Capitals seem to have the more daunting schedule with only 4 of their next 13 games coming against non-playoff teams. Conversely, the Flyers play the least amount of games against actual playoff teams and have 4 games against bottom-5 clubs in Montreal (twice), Columbus, and Chicago.
Additionally, the Capitals have 2 more sets of back to backs, one on the 4th and 5th of April against Carolina and Pittsburgh and one to end the season against Boston and Philadelphia. The Islanders have 2 more as well, including tomorrow’s game against New Jersey and then another one to start the month of April against the Flyers and Chicago. Detroit has one set to end the season and both games are against Montreal.
The Flyers have two sets including tomorrow’s game against Florida and one on the 5th and 6th of April against Buffalo and Columbus – both on the road.
The Capitals enter the final stretch of their season sporting an 11-5-1 record in their last 16 games while outscoring their opponents 64-57. Most importantly for them is that Alex Ovechkin has been contributing offensively with 16 goals and 28 points in his last 24 games and 10 goals and 18 points during the aforementioned 16-game stretch.
The Islanders had a really good chance at catching up with the Flyers at the end of February and at the start of March when they won 6 straight contests. However, after that they immediately lost 6 games with just one of them going to overtime before they took down the Jets yesterday.
The Red Wings were also on a similar heater as the Islanders when they won 6 straight games from the middle of February right to the end of the month. Then the wheels completely spun off when they dropped 7 straight contests – being outscored 36-12. Since then they have gone 3-2-0 with wins against Buffalo, Columbus, and the Islanders to keep a hold on that final wild card spot.
So while the Flyers haven’t been able to string wins on consistent basis over the last little bit, especially compared to the start of their season, they have been fortunate enough to have their opponents fall under the same umbrella. The final stretch of the season is going to be a bumpy ride even with so few games against playoff teams. Samuel Ersson will be tasked to keep up with his heavy workload, the makeshift defense will need to stay strong as a cohesive unit until the reinforcements return, and the offense needs to be more consistent outside of the usual suspects in Travis Konecny, Owen Tippett, and Morgan Frost.
As of today, if the Flyers can hold onto to their position, they will entertain a first round matchup against the Carolina Hurricanes. However, the Hurricanes are neck and neck with the Rangers for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division, so there’s a real possibility we see a rematch of the first round from the 2014 playoffs if it’s New York.
If the Flyers slip to the Wild Card, the matchup possibilities change up a little bit as they could play either Boston, Florida, Carolina, or the Rangers depending on who wins out their respective divisions and whether not the Flyers claim the first or second spot with the Tampa Bay Lightning in the mix.
The biggest hurdle for the Flyers will be finding a way to get wins against divisional foes. They are 8-9-3 against the Metropolitan Division and have 6 intra-division games left. They are 0-2-0 against the Rangers, 1-1-0 against New Jersey, 1-1-0 against the Islanders, 1-1-0 against Washington, and 2-0-0 against Columbus.
There’s still so much hockey left to be played and a lot of positions that need to be locked up and solidified. If they Flyers can continue playing the way they have over their last 3 games – 2-0-1 against Toronto, Carolina, and Florida – they should be okay, but Sunday’s clash against Florida is going to be a big one in the standings especially with Washington and the Islanders in action as well.
