The sophomore slump is an ever-present danger looming for many players coming out of their rookie season, and with Tyson Foerster having bookended his in 2023-24, what can the Philadelphia Flyers expect from the 22-year-old in 2024-25?
The Alliston, Ontario native was drafted in the first round of the 2020 NHL Entry Draft when most teams had an incomplete scouting report with COVID-19 having put a stop to all things in March of that year. At the time of his selection, some had pegged the Flyers as reaching for Foerster, but Chuck Fletcher and company believed they found themselves their trigger-man on the power play for years to come.
What helped Foerster’s development more so than any of his predecessors in the Orange and Black was the fact that he was able to play and develop in the AHL despite not technically being of age. When the CHL suspended their seasons in 2020-21, many of the drafted prospects who were under the age of 20 were allowed to participate in the AHL. The following year in 2021-22, those very same players were given the opportunity to either return to the CHL or stay in the AHL, and Foerster, like many of the others, remained in the AHL.
While in the AHL however, Foerster dealt with his fair share of injuries and was limited to just 33 games between 2020-21 and 2021-22 with the Phantoms before returning for a 13-game stint with the Barrie Colts of the OHL. Nevertheless, we were given a glimpse of what he could bring to the table in 2020-21 when he tallied 10 goals and 17 points in just 24 games as a 19-year-old.
2022-23 was his first full season with the Phantoms and he finished the year by pacing the club in points with 48 and finished 2nd in both goals scored (20) and assists tallied (28). He also earned his way to the Flyers midseason for a short yet electrifying 8-game stint where he posted 4 goals and 7 points on top of receiving applause and admiration from head coach John Tortorella.
During his 8-game stint, Foerster averaged 16:34 TOI, was a plus-2, fired 15 shots, and finished 12 checks alongside recording 10 blocked shots. He went his first three contests without a point but finished on a high with a 5-game point streak and incidentally helped the Flyers win 4 of those games – setting the stage for an important training camp in September of 2023.
Fast forward to the regular season opener and Foerster not only made the Flyers ahead of Opening Night, but he also secured a top-6 spot relatively quickly. Offensively speaking, he started out very slowly, so much so that people were wondering why Tortorella kept benching or scratching Morgan Frost and Bobby Brink but not Foerster. The answer was simple; Foerster was an analytical darling.
In the first 20 games of the season, Foerster had just 1 goal and 4 points but was still averaging over 16 minutes of ice time a game. It took him 16 games to score his first goal of the season but his analytical numbers suggested that a turnaround was coming.
At the time of the slump, Foerster was at or the near the top in nearly all categories. Listed below are some of the more important analytical categories and his team rank at the 20-game mark:
4th in expected goals (3.9)
T-7th most takeaways (7)
4th in expected goals per 60 minutes (0.93)
6th in high danger xGoals (1.16)
1st in medium danger xGoals (2.12)
1st in on-ice shot attempt% (59%)
T1st in on-ice unblocked shot attempt% (60%)
3rd in on-ice goals% (68.2%)
1st in on-ice expected goals% (63%)
1st in relative expected goals% (15.3%)
1st in on-ice score adjusted expected goals% (63.4%)
2nd in on-ice score/flurry adjusted expected goals% (62%)
1st in CF% at even strength (53.5%)
1st CF% rel at even strength (6.1)
1st in FF% at even strength (55.4%)
1st in FF% rel at even strength (5.8)
He followed that up with 19 goals and 29 points in his next 50 games before ending the year without a point in 7 games. He wound up finishing the year with a 59.3 CF% and 60.1 FF% in all situations including a 54.1 CF% and 55.8 FF% at even-strength. His CF% rel and FF% rel were also sky high at 10.3 and 8.9, respectively. Overall, he finished tied for first on the team in Corsi and Fenwick, alongside Frost and Sean Couturier, according to MoneyPuck.com
Considering that 50% is an average score, Foerster blew the doors off its hinges with and without the puck, and for a rookie he still managed to score 20 goals on the season despite his slumps.
With the Flyers not having made many changes to their offensive personnel ahead of the 2024-25 season, a sophomore slump would be devastating. However, Foerster showed that even throughout his slumps and cold spells, he was able to help and produce in other facets of the game, which in part was a big reason why remained in the top-6 and continued to receive consistent ice time.
If the power play ever figures itself out, expect a lot of the Flyers personnel to see an uptick and increase in their individual statistics. Adding a modest 10-12 power play tallies would barely increase their paltry percentage but it would break the facade that the Flyers’ offensive players are “mid” at best. Their even-strength production has been magnificent over the years and of Foerster’s 20 goals, 15 came while playing even strength hockey.
It’s also anyone’s guess as to how the Flyers will rearrange their lines with the arrival of Matvei Michkov but they have a few options for Foerster that would help him thrive nonetheless. Playing alongside Couturier would give the Flyers two analytical darlings and would place one of their best shots side-by-side with one of their better playmakers.
If he were playing alongside Frost, that would give Foerster a lot more offensive freedom considering Frost is arguably their most gifted and creative centre – and was at least their most creative player before Michkov arrived. If placed alongside Frost, it could also be because they’d want a slightly more responsible forward on that line to mitigate the defensive lapses that could come otherwise.
Even looking at who could be his opposite winger, placing him opposite of Travis Konecny would fulfill a hard-working, feisty, 200-foot trio with Couturier down the middle, whereas playing with Michkov and Frost would give the Flyers two legitimate goal-scoring threats playing with their best offensive-minded centre.
Not forgetting Owen Tippett either, if he was placed opposite of Foerster then you have the two best shots and goal scorers on the team together; either which way, Foerster fits like a glove almost anywhere in the lineup and gives the Flyers a lot of versatility within the top-9.
Looking back at some of his fellow teammates and how they did transitioning from their rookie season to sophomore season, the odds are in Foerster’s favour to succeed.
Joel Farabee went from recording 21 points in 52 games as a rookie to 20 goals and 38 points in 55 games as a sophomore in 2020-21, Frost went from 16 points in 55 games in 2021-22 to 19 goals and 46 points in 81 games in 2022-23, and even Cam York went from 10 points in 30 games during his rookie season in 2021-22 to 20 points in 54 contests the following season.
Foerster has a real shot at completely avoiding the sophomore slump for a myriad of reasons. He has the backing and the confidence of the coaching staff, he has already shown his flair and skill during the first 8-game stint as well as his rookie season, and he will have a host of talented forwards to play with that could help him better his 20-goal campaign and enter the exclusive 30-goal club in just his second full season at the NHL level.
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MEET MATVEI MICHKOV AT DYNASTY SPORTS – OXFORD VALLEY MALL
Welcome Matvei Michkov to Philadelphia the only way that Philly can with our friends at Dynasty Sports! The Flyers rookie will be making his veryfirst appearance since joining the Flyers on Saturday, September 7th at Dynasty Sports’ Oxford Valley Mall location. The event will begin at 12:00 PM with Matvei signing autographs and taking photos with his fans.
