We all know the disparaging facts about the salary cap situation for the Philadelphia Flyers. It has been well documented for years, it was a problem under Paul Holmgren, his mess took 4-5 years to clean up under Ron Hextall, until Chuck Fletcher brought the Flyers right back into the pit.
Always near the top of the leaderboard in salary cap usage but at the bottom of the NHL standings, the Flyers have a very clear and concise problem and that correlates with the overpriced, overvalued, and overhyped players that the manic front office believed were the keys to the future.
When Kevin Hayes was scratched a few weeks ago, a lot was made out of the decision to bench your leading scorer at the time and then tangents formed to the idea that maybe there was some sort of friction and disdain between head coach and player. We are not dismissing that there could be problems between John Tortorella and Hayes, especially after the latter expressed his honest opinion on the subject matter, nor are we dismissing the idea that due to the friction that a possible buyout could be on the horizon. It would fast-track the Flyers into a rebuild they desperately need to commence and it would be the move to get the ball rolling. However, he is still a very serviceable player and sits second on the team in points after everything is said and done.
One name that should be talked about if buyouts are ever brought up is Rasmus Ristolainen. 99.9% of the fan base wouldn’t even bat an eye to the idea as he is currently in year one of five of a contract with a $5.1 million AAV. I think it’s safe to say we all know the background and history of Ristolainen as a member of the Orange and Black. To acquire his services, the Flyers had to first dump the contract of Shayne Gostisbehere to the Arizona Coyotes and in doing so traded a 2nd round pick alongside a 7th round pick to alleviate the cap space to make room for Ristolainen. The very next day the Flyers then traded a 1st round pick, a 2nd round pick, and Robert Hagg for Ristolainen from the Buffalo Sabres before the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, where the Flyers held the 14th selection.
The Flyers entered a bidding war they should have never been a part of and ended up winning the grand prize, which was a hulking rearguard who was analytically the worst defenseman in the NHL. Had they acquired him during the years between 2014-2018 when he was scoring points in the 40s and playing over 25 minutes a game, then maybe the price tag would’ve made a little more sense. However, he was coming off two downward seasons where the writing was on the wall in terms of his future in Buffalo. The Sabres no longer required his services with Rasmus Dahlin in the picture, he was costing them too much money, he had lost his mojo and scoring prowess after being dumped off the top power play unit, and they found a team willing to dole out a lottery selection and more.
He had a rough first season in Philadelphia as maybe the pressure got to him, considering the hate he received right after the trade was completed. However, his on-ice play was abysmal and it has only gotten worse to date. The Flyers doubled down all season long when it came to questions about whether or not they would trade him at the trade deadline or re-sign him long term. Chuck Fletcher was adamant that he was a part of the solution moving forward and without Ryan Ellis in the picture, how could they trade a right-handed shooting defenseman? There were rumours that he would’ve fetched something similar to what Florida traded to acquire Ben Chiarot, which was a first round pick, a fourth round pick, and a prospect, but Chuck wanted none of that and decided to extend him for 5 more years.
He just recently recorded his first point in his 28th game of the season, and he had maybe a good week and a half on the top pair with Ivan Provorov before really showing his true colours last week in their back-to-back set with the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Carolina Hurricanes. He was out of position, on the ice for several goals against, didn’t take his man, didn’t follow the right player, left his blindside unattended, and was in the wrong place on nearly every sequence. With another 4 years and $5.1 million against the cap each year, the Flyers should really consider getting out of his contract as his trade value might be at rock bottom with that much term still left to deal with.
At one point in time it was James van Riemsdyk’s contract that was the albatross of the team as he had several years left and a cap hit of $7 million dollars. However, playing on an expiring contract and actually playing well, his trade value is trending upwards as he is becoming a top trade deadline candidate. The Flyers will most likely retain half of his salary to get the best possible return as they walk into the summer $7 million dollars richer.
Now we’re left with 2 options, both could help alleviate cap space, but only one would help with cap space while making the defence better – addition by subtraction. Ristolainen has had his opportunities to win over the fan base, coaching staff, and front office and if you had to be 100% honest, you would come to the conclusion that he isn’t what he once was and that the Flyers have played him far too much in situations he isn’t comfortable playing.
Ristolainen is another Andrew MacDonald where his contract dictates his standing amongst the team and because he’s affecting the salary cap with his $5.1 million AAV, he is under a microscope on a nightly basis. He was never meant to be a top pair defenseman, he was never meant to be a top-4 either, but the Flyers prioritized him more than anyone else ahead of the 2021 NHL Entry Draft and they believed they could fix him and bring him back to his 40+ point glory days. Unfortunately, the Flyers are not a team that is equipped in taking on projects as we also witnessed that with Martin Jones last season.
At best, in his current state, Ristolainen is a bottom-pair defenseman who needs a more responsible partner by his side to allow him to be more aggressive with the puck. As big as he is and as slow as looks when he skates, he once had the offensive capabilities to exit the zone with the puck on his stick, man the top power play unit, and used his booming slap-shot to his advantage. That was when he was at the top of his game – I can’t stress enough the importance of understanding what the top of his game actually means – and looked like the top-4 defenseman who could earn upwards of $5 million. He had his flaws but they were overshadowed by his points and him being in Buffalo. It was believed that bringing him to Philadelphia was the change in scenery that was required to bring him back from the dead as he truly had a rough finish to his tenure in Buffalo.
Those days are long gone and now we are witnessing a Ristolainen that the Flyers have no idea what to do with. They have tried him on every pairing, he has played with Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheim, Justin Braun, and Nick Seeler, and while he might have a good game or two to start, he eventually falters into his trap where he gets caught on rushes, misses assignments, and turns the puck over. It is very unfortunate because the Flyers spent a lot to get him from Buffalo, spent even more to keep him long term, and rejected trade offers that could’ve recouped most of what was lost on that fateful draft day. The Flyers front office has really looked bad over the last few seasons in terms of assessing talent as they seem to be stuck in the glory days of bumper car hockey and no salary cap – especially the way they dole out money and term.
So while Kevin Hayes still has term remaining at a very high cap hit, his on-ice contributions outweigh those of Ristolainen. The centreman has had his fair share of issues this season as he has been benched twice and scratched on another occasion. However he is second on the team in points with 30, only 5 behind Travis Konecny, but his off-ice play has the coaching staff in tatters. We’ve seen him slow down the pace of the game when everyone else is moving at normal speed and his turnovers have become costly, while not heeding the coaching staff’s warnings.
Nevertheless, he alongside Konecny have been the heartbeat of the offence all season long, but Hayes also carries a cap hit of $7.142 million for another 3 seasons. He was the prize of the summer in 2019 with Chuck Fletcher working his first offseason with the Flyers. Given almost $34 million in projected cap space, he traded for his negotiating rights before signing him to a 7-year deal. The price tag was obviously too high but the free agent market is a tough place to negotiate, especially when you’re one of the top players available – you’re going to be entering a bidding war so be prepared to overpay.
Hayes hasn’t been bad by any means as he currently has 54 goals and 133 points in 208 games over the past 4 seasons. He scored 23 goals and 41 points in 69 games before the COVID interruption, then had 31 points in 55 games in the COVID shortened season, before scoring another 31 points but this time in 48 games in a season shortened by injuries. His last 82 games, he has 19 goals and 61 points, which would have him beat out his career-high of 55.
If a buyout were to be executed, here’s how it would go down: According to CapFriendly, a buyout would affect the Flyers with a $2.25 million cap hit next year, $4.75 million in the following 2 years, and then $1.6 million in the final 3 years. Essentially giving them a $4.9 million alleviation for next summer. Another route they could pursue would be trading him with salary retention. He is still a very top notch player as we’ve seen this season, almost putting up a point per game with one of the worst offenses in the NHL. Worst case, the Flyers would have his salary retention at 50%, which would only put his cap hit at $3.571 million and much more palatable for any team looking for a top-9 centre.
If they nixed the buyout idea and tried trading him, the rebuilding Flyers would get picks and prospects, which they desperately need and they would be able to get out of his contract in some way, shape, or form. 50% retention for a few years wouldn’t negatively impact a rebuilding team as much since they wouldn’t need to be spending up to the cap either. While Hayes is still serviceable for this organization, would getting rid of him at all costs be wise? Or do you hold onto his contract, announce a rebuild, and go through the arduous few years that remain with a high cap hit before dumping him off at the trade deadline, 2.5 years down the road.
Whereas with a Ristolainen buyout, the main issue is that it would affect the team for a few more years longer than Hayes, as they would be on the hook until 2030-31 season but the cap hits are somewhat more manageable. $1.391 million in 2023-24, $391,667 in 2024-25, $1.391 million again in 2025-26, $2.891 million in 2026-27, and then the final four years would have a cap hit of $1.791 million through 2031. It’s not necessarily a tradable contract anymore, so then the question becomes whether or not the Flyers should push through 4 more years of $5.1 million or 8 more years at a cap hit that would save anywhere between $3 million-$5 million within the first 4 years.
There are several options to ponder on, but I think at the end of the day a player like Ristolainen has disturbed the fan base to such a point, where the writing is on the wall. The biggest caveat is whether or not the Flyers announce a rebuild or not. This is not a team that is willing to go down quietly and if they keep Chuck Fletcher at the helm, you know he’s going to want another crack at the whip at a retool that he will label as an “aggressive rebuild” or an “aggressive retool” or a “stabilizing offseason” again.
The Flyers held onto MacDonald for several years before executing a buyout, but they were in a different state of mind with Ron Hextall at the helm. The biggest question to pose is whether or not it is the right decision to be on the hook for a contract 4 years after its completion – while also noting that the salary cap should be rising steadily from year to year.
If a buyout were the be executed this summer, the Flyers better be wise to the idea that Rasmus Ristolainen should be the option over Kevin Hayes. In the 4 years that he would technically still be under contract for, you are saving $3.7 million in 2023-24, $4.7 million in 2024-25, $3.7 million in 2025-26, and $2.2 million in 2026-27. Then you incur losses of $1.79 million for the next 4 years between 2027-28 to 2030-31. Whereas with Kevin Hayes and his remaining 3 years, a buyout would save the Flyers $4.89 million in 2023-24, $2.39 million in 2024-25 and 2025-26, before incurring a loss of $1.61 million in the 3 years between 2026-27 and 2028-29.
So you end up saving 72% in 2023-24 on Ristolainen compared to Hayes’ 68.3%, in 2024-25 you save 92.1% on Ristolainen compared to Hayes’ 33.4%, and then you save 72% on Ristolainen again in 2025-26 compared to Hayes 33.4%. You save 43% on Ristolainen in 2026-27 with Hayes turning into dead cap for the first of three years. However, the dead cap hits are eerily similar with Ristolainen coming in at -$1.79 million to Hayes’ -$1.61 million. So once again, you’re dealing with Ristolainen’s savings for one more year than Hayes but then have to go through 2 more years of dead cap.
The math makes it a little simpler if the Flyers do indeed buy out someone this summer. Hayes would be a shock to the culture and core as his termination would get the ball rolling on a rebuild since they don’t really have anyone who could fill in his shoes. His buyout would also affect the Flyers for fewer years than a Ristolainen one, but the latter saves you a lot more money than the former, which is a win-win for the Flyers. The dead cap numbers are negligible when you outweigh the pros and cons of each player and what they bring to the table. The Flyers could also keep both and try to run it back next year, you just never know with this front office and ownership group.
However, in saying all that, it might be the best option to admit your wrongdoings and walk away from the player you knew you shouldn’t have traded for and then extended.
