After last Thursday night’s loss to the Dallas Stars, you truly come to admire, realize, and appreciate what the NHL Entry Draft can do for an NHL club.
It’s not rocket science to understand that the more picks you have, the better your chances are at building for the future, but you have to pick the right players.
The Stars’ core was built in 2017 when they drafted Miro Heiskanen 3rd overall, Jake Oettinger 26th overall, and Jason Robertson 39th overall. The Philadelphia Flyers had 3 picks within the first 35 that same year and selected Nolan Patrick 2nd, Morgan Frost 27th, and Isaac Ratcliffe 35th.
Almost 6 years later, Robertson sits 4th in his draft class with 228 points in just 207 games and has a higher points per game average than the 3 players ahead of him in Elias Pettersson, Nico Hischier, and Cale Makar.
Heiskanen sits 7th with 200 points in 351 games, while Oettinger is 76-34-19 with a .916 SV% and a 2.44 GAA, including a scintillating 2022 playoff performance where he came just short in defeating the heavily favoured Calgary Flames – facing an average of 41 shots a game and held a .954 SV%. For further context, Heiskanen has 53 more points than Patrick (77 in 222), Frost (66 in 156), and Ratcliffe (4 in 10) combined.
The Flyers had 2 first round picks once again in 2018 and drafted Joel Farabee 14th overall and Jay O’Brien 19th. Almost 5 years later, the Jay O’Brien saga will be coming to an underwhelming and disappointing ending, and he is just one of 4 players drafted within the top-35 and one of 3 players from the first round to not have played an NHL game to date.
It wasn’t the most spectacular draft in terms of top-end talent, but the Flyers reached to draft the 32nd ranked North American skater – was originally ranked 44th mid-season. North American skaters (by ranking) taken ahead of him included Andrei Svechnikov (ranked 1st), Brady Tkachuk (2nd), Barrett Hayton (9th), Filip Zadina (3rd), Quinn Hughes (6th), Evan Bouchard (4th), Oliver Wahlstrom (7th), Noah Dobson (5th), Ty Dellandrea (25th), Joel Farabee (12th), Ty Smith (14th), and Liam Foudy (19th). Players ranked ahead of him that were selected afterwards included Mattias Samuelsson, K’Andre Miller, and Rasmus Sandin – and that’s just the North American skaters.
With 4 first round picks in a 2-year span, the Flyers should have been set and ready to roll. They also had 3 second round picks in 2016, for a grand total of 10 picks in the first 2 rounds in a 3-year span, and they only have 3 players to really brag about in Carter Hart, Morgan Frost, and Joel Farabee – and barely at that. German Rubtsov, Pascal Laberge, Wade Allison, Nolan Patrick, Morgan Frost, Isaac Ratcliffe, Joel Farabee, Jay O’Brien, and Adam Ginning have combined for 715 NHL games, 131 goals, and 300 points.
For context, players drafted in those years like Jesper Bratt have 274 points in 387 games, Jordan Kyrou has 194 points in 250 games, Tage Thompson has 196 points in 298 games, Robert Thomas of the St.Louis Blues has 227 points in 312 games, Nick Suzuki has 207 points in 289 games, and Brandon Hagel has 130 points in 209 games.
Meanwhile in Philadelphia, of those 9 players, 3 players never or haven’t made their NHL debuts and when you add Ratcliffe and Rubtsov into the mix, that’s 5 players with a combined 14 games of NHL experience.
O’Brien joins a list of underwhelming picks that never panned out for a myriad of reasons. In his draft season, he scored 43 goals and 80 points in 30 games for Thayer Academy of the USHS-Prep league. He committed to Providence College the following season but only scored 2 goals and 5 points in 25 games. He changed paths and decided to go to the BCHL – British Columbia Hockey League – and scored 25 goals and 66 points in just 46 games for Penticton Vees. He then committed to Boston University in 2020-21 and has been there ever since. Scoring 16 points in 16 games, following that up with 22 in 24, and finishing with 32 in 39 this year as a 23-year-old. He has suffered multiple injuries along the way, including undergoing hip surgery in 2021-22.
All season long, there were looming questions about whether or not the Flyers would choose to sign him or not. If they opted not to, they would have been awarded a compensatory second round draft pick.
The Flyers will receive a 2nd round pick in 2023 NHL Entry Draft if O’Brien’s appeal to test free agency is approved before June 1st, however if the appeal does not go through then the 2nd round pick will be awarded in the 2024 Entry Draft. It has been reported that the Flyers will end up getting the puck in 2024.
Since the Flyers opted not to sign O’Brien, they could more or less receive a 2023 pick, unless the appeal is rejected – but either which way, the Flyers will receive a 2nd round pick in a draft where they didn’t have one.
Their original 2023 2nd-rounder went to Buffalo in the Rasmus Ristolainen trade and their 2024 2nd-rounder went to Carolina in the Tony DeAngelo trade.
Going back to the 2015 NHL Draft, the Flyers made 9 picks, with 2 of them being stalwarts in Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny with a combined 1012 games under their belt. The remaining 7 have combined for 71 games, including 3 who have not stepped foot on NHL ice. In 2016, the Flyers drafted 10 prospects, one of which is 200-game player Carter Hart, 2 players have surpassed 50 games in Wade Allison and Connor Bunnaman, and the remaining 7 have combined for 61 games, including 3 who never stepped foot on NHL ice.
In 2017, the Flyers drafted 9 prospects, with Nolan Patrick and Morgan Frost combining for 378 games, 58 goals, and 143 points. Outside of them, only Noah Cates has surpassed 50 games and 2 players never stepped foot on NHL ice. In 2018, the Flyers drafted 8 prospects, 2 have played in the NHL – Joel Farabee’s 250 games and Samuel Ersson’s 12 – while the other 6 have either been let go or have yet to play an NHL game for the Flyers, including 2nd round pick Adam Ginning.
The Flyers could no longer wait on O’Brien to be the player that Hextall thought he would be when he jumped the gun and drafted him at least one round too soon. They also have either let go of most players drafted from his tenure or have a few still waiting in the wings like Ginning and Wyatte Wylie. At best, it seemed like O’Brien was destined for the AHL with very limited chances of usurping several promising prospects ahead of him.
The focus has been shifted to the players that Chuck Fletcher and company drafted and although there aren’t any standout names, generational talents, or top picks in the running, some of them have shown promise. However, as we know with Hextall, promise and potential is half the battle. We thought – and we were even told time and time again – that their farm system was one of the best in all of hockey, and it churned very little. Players like Provorov and Konecny have been thrown to the wind in trade rumours, Carter Hart has now joined them, and the list goes on.
Cam York, Bobby Brink, Ronnie Attard, Tyson Foerster, Emil Andrae, and Elliot Desnoyers have gotten professional games under their belt either with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms, the Philadelphia Flyers, or both. They have high hopes for Cutter Gauthier, they believe in Devin Kaplan – fellow teammate of Jay O’Brien at Boston University – and will be drafting someone worthwhile this summer.
Maybe they’ll be lucky and find a draft class of their own that rivals that of 2017 for the Dallas Stars, one that built their core and has led them to prosperity. Until then, we have to wait, cross our fingers, and hope for the best with what we have at our disposal.
We have to hope that the new batch of prospects who are being touted as the future of the team actually pan out, and can expedite the rebuild sooner rather than later.
