In hindsight, it would be great if the Philadelphia Flyers were able to pull off a tear-down rebuild like the Chicago Blackhawks.
Chicago has $41.8 million in cap space this summer, they have 2 first round draft picks – including the 1st overall selection – 4 second round picks, and 2 third round picks, and they only have 2 players signed through 2023-24 in Seth Jones and Connor Murphy. As things stand today, the Blackhawks are projected to have $71.6 million in the summer of 2024.
Not only do they have 9 picks in the first 3 rounds of the 2023 NHL Draft, they also have 2 first round picks in 2024 and 2025, 2 second round picks in 2024 and 2025, 2 third round picks in 2024, 2and fourth round picks in 2025. With Connor Bedard most likely being drafted with the first overall pick, the Blackhawks won’t have to worry about enticing free agents for years to come.
As for the Flyers, they have $7.7 million in cap space, a first round pick and 2 third and fourth round picks each this year as well as 2 first round picks next year. They don’t have a second round pick until 2025, but looking ahead to the summer of 2024, they are projected t0 have $27 million in cap space with the salary cap projected at $87.5 million. Owen Tippett, Wade Allison, Tanner Laczynski, Tony DeAngelo, Nick Seeler, Carter Hart, and Felix Sandström will become pending free agents by then, but that’s not equating what Morgan Frost, Noah Cates, and Cam York receive this summer.
In any regard, you compare how these 2 teams have fared over the last 5 years and it’s remarkable that one was re-tooling while the other acknowledged their position, saw into the future, and made the appropriate moves to restart. Since 2017-18, the Flyers have made the playoffs twice to the Blackhawks making it once. Chicago finished 8th, 7th, 8th, 7th, 7th, and 8th in their division since, while the Flyers have finished 3rd, 6th, 2nd, 6th, 8th, and 7th.
We’ve heard the rampant cries for the Flyers to trade Kevin Hayes, Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheim, Tony DeAngelo, and Travis Konecny. A few of those are definitely on the horizon this summer, but one name that has been mentioned in almost in hushed tones is Carter Hart. The battered Flyers had a goalie carousel for almost 3 decades before he made his NHL debut. He had a sensational junior circuit for the Everett Silvertips of the WHL and even won gold at the World Juniors for Canada. He looked to be every part of the future in his first 2 seasons before he slipped through the cracks in front of some of the worst built back ends in franchise history the following 2 seasons.
In his first 2 seasons, Hart posted a 40-26-4 record with a 2.59 GAA and a .915 SV% – while also posting a 9-5 record in the 2020 postseason with a .926 SV% and a 2.23 GAA with 2 shutouts. The next 2 seasons he posted a 22-35-12 record with an .895 SV% and a 3.34 GAA – he was the worst qualified goaltender in 2020-21.
With so much vitriol being thrown his way, he came back with a strong season this year, but that won’t show if you look directly at his win-loss record. Hart sported a 22-23-10 record with a .907 SV% and a 2.94 GAA, but he was ranked in the top-10 or top-12 of several analytical categories amongst NHL goaltenders.
You can’t say the Flyers defense is horrible but then get mad at the goaltenders for not making more saves or winning more games. They face far too many high danger chances, odd-man rushes are a commonplace, and penalty killing is one of their weakest points. Hart played on his head several times this season but near the conclusion of the 2022-23 campaign, his name started churning through the rumour mill because of the perceived timeline of contention if the Flyers entered a full rebuild.
This brought about a lot of conversations because, first and foremost, what is the timeline of contention? If we’re being conservative, the Flyers should be through most of the rebuild at least by 2025-26. Hart is in line for a new contract ahead of the 2024-25 season and is only turning 25 years old this August. The Flyers can’t ill-afford to dump their young goaltender because they don’t think they’re going to be ready by the time he needs a new contract either.
Goaltenders are by far the most random and weirdest position in all of hockey and almost impossible to predict. Their development can takes months, it can take years, it may even take a decade. Giving up on a young goaltender too soon can have massive repercussions because finding one in the first place is nearly impossible. Jordan Binnington stole the show in his first season and won the Stanley Cup before flaming out ever since, and Matt Murray had 2 Stanley Cups by the time he finished his official rookie season but is now an injury-riddled third-option. Then you have guys like Sergei Bobrovsky who won 2 Vezinas after the Flyers traded him and is now in the Stanley Cup Final, or Marc-André Fleury was ran out of Pittsburgh before leading the Vegas Golden Knights into the Final in their inaugural season, and even Linus Ullmark went from being the odd-man out in Buffalo to probably winning the Vezina Trophy this season. The list is almost endless on both sides of the spectrum.
Daniel Brière has been staunch when talking about not tearing down the foundations from day 1 and going through the rebuild in a patient but timely manner. While a trade for Hayes makes sense on every account, a Provorov deal is tough to swallow but makes sense, and even a Konecny deal is plausible, Carter Hart should not be dealt in any way, shape, or form – at least for now.
Provorov has dealt with his brunt of rumours for almost 4 years, Konecny has followed suit as well, and both look to get modest raises when their contracts are due in the summer of 2025. You can make your argument for both sides for both players – John Tortorella loves both players so we’ll see how that plays out with his new bosses.
Hart, on the other hand, has shown what he is capable of doing with good and bad defenses. Trading him would in fact get you a large haul but it’s nearly impossible to replace his actual value. Yes, there’s Samuel Ersson, Alexei Kolosov, and Felix Sandström, but the between the 3 of them, only 2 have played in the NHL, one looked solid in his first 8 games, and the other has a combined record of 3-16-4 – albeit with interesting supporting stats.
Tortorella and company have stated from the beginning that they are never going to purposely tank and trading Hart right now with no plan B, C, or D in place would categorize as a tanking move. Since he’s also not even 25 years old just yet, you can sign him to another bridge deal around the time you think the Flyers will be in line for contention and go from there. Or you can sign him to a short-term deal and move on from him 2-3 years down the road if things still haven’t been resolved. He won’t even be 30 years old by then and should have years upon years of playing still left in the tank, which wouldn’t affect his trade value in the slightest.
“Now, I’m not in a position to turn down anything. If there’s teams calling about him, we have to listen,” said Brière about Hart. “That’s my job as a general manager, I have to listen. I have to do what is best for the team and the organization. In saying that, I expect Carter Hart to be our goalie for many years to come.
“We have a couple Russian goalies, one that was forced to stay over in Russia – we thought he was coming last year in Ivan Fedotov. But we also have another special goalie in (Alexei) Kolosov who we drafted a couple years ago who is making a name for himself in the KHL.”
He is a huge building block for the future and should be looked upon the same way by everyone else. Young goaltenders are always said to have much longer developments and while his record doesn’t support that, his underlying numbers should. There are very few goaltenders – if any – that could have supported the defenses that the Flyers constructed. There’s always been a large gap between Ivan Provorov and the remaining cast and crew. Injuries have played their part but overpaid contracts have hampered their ability to build and it continued until the very last days of Chuck Fletcher’s regime.
However, that’s not to say that Daniel Brière won’t exercise his general managing right to listen to what other teams are willing to offer in return for Hart. Good young goaltenders are hard to come by whether through the draft, free agency, or via trade and if someone like Hart is even slightly available or can be had at a certain price point, plenty of teams are going to be lining up at the door.
The NHL is a copy-cat league, and the postseason is always a good barometer of what the blueprint for a lot of hopefuls is going to be heading into the new season.
With the recent heroics in goal from Sergei Bobrovsky in Florida, we have been reminded of the importance of great goaltending. Buffalo, New Jersey, Detroit, Los Angeles, and Ottawa either fell out of the playoff race or the playoffs as a whole due to their goaltending. Akira Schmid was the hero against the New York Rangers for the Devils but was brought back down to earth against the Carolina Hurricanes. The Sabres, Red Wings, and Senators could’ve made legitimate claims to the final Wild Card spot had they had the right goaltender in the crease. The Flyers know what they have in Carter Hart and they’re not going to dangle him desperately to other teams in the hopes they take him off their hands – like Chuck Fletcher did with James van Riemsdyk.
If you want the soon-to-be 25-year-old as your future in goal, you’re going to have to pay a pretty penny and then some to pry him out of Philadelphia.
Samuel Ersson had a great first stint, but by no means is he ready to tackle the starting job in Philadelphia, let alone a 1A/1B tandem right now. Felix Sandström has had a rocky start to his NHL career and has shown flashes here and there, but for the most part he didn’t raise the confidence of John Tortorella and his coaching staff. Alexei Kolosov is a raw prospect whose NHL timeline could be anywhere between 2 or 3 or 4 years from now if he continues to improve in the KHL. I don’t see the Flyers really dipping their toes in the free agent waters to grab a marquee goaltender either, which leaves Hart a Flyer for the foreseeable future – unless Brière is otherworldly blown away.
Flyers President of Hockey Operations Keith Jones mentioned how he wants to build from the defense-out and that meant he was trying to protect his goaltenders from the onslaught they’ve received over the last few years. Even with Sandström, at one point in time he received 18 goals of support in just 12 games, or in other words he had to be a brick wall for the Flyers to even take the game to overtime. Carter Hart received almost less than 3 goals of support in his victories by the midpoint of the season, meaning he also had to play on his head for the team to even record a win.
We’ve been treated to some mismanaged hockey over the last decade and a half, but the Flyers have a few building blocks that should bring about some confidence at the very least.
Carter Hart is one of them.
Build him a proper defense and the numbers will skyrocket – and if you don’t believe me, look at his 2019-20 numbers.
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