Not having full access to NBC Sports Philadelphia’s broadcast feeds has given me a little insight on what the other teams, cities, and media members think and know about the Philadelphia Flyers.
The general consensus is that they are rebuilding after the Claude Giroux trade, have been stung by injuries to key players like Sean Couturier, Cam Atkinson, and Ryan Ellis, and with new head coach John Tortorella behind the bench, the Flyers have built an identity that was previously lacking.
Carter Hart gets a lot of airtime since he’s been pegged as the future in goal for the Flyers and many believe he’s ultra-talented. However, after 4.5 seasons in goal for the Flyers, Hart is slowly receiving the same treatment that Claude Giroux received before his exit. There seems to be no in-between when it comes to Hart: you’re either on the side that he’s really good but plays on a bad team, or you’re tired of his weak goals against and lack of big time saves and want up-and-coming Samuel Ersson to take the reins.
Hart has 190 games under his belt and has posted a 78-80-25 record with a .906 SV% and a 2.95 GAA. His first 2 seasons compared to the following 2 seasons represent night and day differences and that’s been primarily what has brought about a lot of disdain in factions of the fan base. He was a 2-time CHL Goaltender of the Year recipient during his time with the Everett Silvertips, he won the Del Wilson Trophy 3 straight years awarded to best goaltender in the WHL, he won a silver medal in 2017 for Team Canada at the World Juniors and then won gold the following year, and he also has a silver medal for Team Canada at the 2019 World Championships.
He was brought in during the 8-goalie debacle of 2018-19 and solidified his place in goal with a 16-13-1 record, a .917 SV%, and a 2.83 GAA in 31 games for a subpar team. He followed that up with a 24-13-3 record with a 2.42 GAA and a .914 SV% in the COVID-interrupted season of 2019-20 while posting ridiculous splits on home ice. He continued that run of consistent goaltending in the playoffs as well going 9-5 with a 2.23 GAA, a .926 SV%, and 2 shutouts compared to the 1 he had in a combined 74 games during the regular season up until that point in his career.
The wheels fell off in 2020-21 where he finished the season 9-11-5 with a 3.67 GAA and .877 SV% and then followed that up with a 13-24-7 record, a 3.16 GAA, and a .905 SV%. He was statistically the worst goaltender in 2020-21 and had his hand during the excruciatingly awful month of March where the Flyers were blown out nearly every game. He improved from 2020-21 to 2021-22, evidenced by his GSAA (goals saved above average) which went from -22.6 to -3.0. The team was worse off, but Hart kept them from sinking even lower if that was even possible.
That brings us to this season where he’s currently 16-19-9 with a .909 SV% and a 2.89 G.A.A. He started off the season as the biggest reason why the Flyers were winning games – some could argue the only reason they were winning games – with his 6-0-2 start, .946 SV%, and 2.00 GAA. The following 16 games he went 3-9-4 with a .891 SV% while allowing 51 goals in 16 games but then vastly improved in the next stretch of 16 games where he went 7-6-3 but held a .915 SV% while only allowing 40 goals. His save percentage on the season finally crept up to near .915, his GAA. was below 2.60, and his record was not clearly indicative of his style of play. In the final 8 games of that 16-game stretch, he held a .936 SV% and a GAA just under 2 but lost 5 of the 8 games.
Unfortunately, he’s hit a snag over his last 4 games where he’s allowed 16 goals on 97 shots with the Flyers emphatically being beaten by Seattle and Vancouver in the first 2 games of the road trip, followed by a blown third period lead to Edmonton, and then a horrendous showing against Montreal.
When comparing him to other elite options around the NHL, Carter Hart has held his own. In his wins he has posted a .952 SV% and a 1.68 GAA compared to Andrei Vasilevskiy’s .940 SV% and 1.84 GAA and Connor Hellebuyck’s .949 SV% and 1.61 GAA In his regulation losses, Hart has donned a .864 SV% and a 4.04 GAA to Vasilevskiy’s .885 SV% and 3.70 GAA, Hellebuyck’s .882 SV% and 3.80 GAA, and even Jake Oettinger’s .868 SV% and 3.65 GAA. Proving that he has to be a stone wall in his victories, while posting league average numbers in his losses similar to his better counterparts. In Vasilevskiy’s 2 overtime losses he has sported a .885 SV% and a 4.26 GAA, in Hellebuyck’s 2 overtime losses he has a .918 SV% and a 3.27 GAA, in Oettinger’s 10 overtime losses he has a .886 SV% and a 3.28 GAA, and in Hart’s 9 overtime defeats he has a .896 SV% and a 3.17 GAA.
The Flyers have given Hart 56 goals of support in his 16 victories which is an average of 3.5 goals per game but 5 of those were empty net goals which brings it down to 3.19. Comparatively, Vasilevskiy has received 118 goals in his 28 victories that brings his totals to 4.21 goals per game and 115 goals in support with empty netters which brings it down to 4.11. Hellebuyck has received 109 goals of support in his 26 victories for 4.19 goals per game and with 11 empty netters it drops to 3.8 goals per game. Oettinger is closer to Hart as he has received 90 goals in 24 victories, which is good for 3.75 goals per game and when you account for the empty nets (an additional 9) it drops to 3.38 goals per game. Extrapolate as you will, however 4.19 goals per game compared to 3.5 is a big difference over a large stretch of games. The Flyers aren’t the Lightning or the Jets in terms of overall offense, however when criticisms fly about Carter Hart, the overall team matters and the Flyers have neither the offense or the defense to help their goaltenders.
Then when we compare their goal support in their losses its rather staggering to say the least. Vasilevskiy has 17 losses this season with 15 of them coming in regulation, Hellebuyck has 20 losses with 18 of them in regulation, Oettinger has 18 losses but only 8 have come in regulation, and Hart has 28 losses with 19 of them coming in regulation. In Vasilevskiy’s 17 losses he has received 37 goals of support which is good for 2.18 per game and if we take out the overtime losses that number drops to 29 in 15 for 1.93 goals per loss. Hellebuyck has only received 35 goals of support in his 20 losses which is good for 1.75 goals per game and by taking out the overtime game that number slightly increases to 1.61 goals per loss. Oettinger has been given 39 goals of support in his 17 losses which 2.29 goals per game and when you realize he has more overtime losses than in regulation, he has only been given 17 goals in his 8 non-overtime defeats for 2.13 goals per game. Hart on the other hand has received 50 goals of support in his 28 losses which is good for 1.78 goals per game, in his 19 regulation losses he has only received a measly 28 goals which drops to 1.47 goals per loss, and in his overtime defeats it jumps up to 2.44 with 22 goals of support in the 9 games.
In goaltenders who have played a minimum of 30 games this season, Hart ranks 10th in goals saved above expected at 11.7 behind goalies like Linus Ullmark, Ilya Sorokin, Connor Hellebuyck, Juuse Saros, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Jake Oettinger – 5 of them made the All-Star game. He’s 15th in save percentage on unblocked shots, he’s 11th in save percentage above expected but only 18th in actual save percentage, he’s 11th in GAA better than expected where he is currently at 2.94 but should be 3.22 – which in it of itself is 17th highest – and he’s 10th in wins above replacement. Hart is also 7th in saves, 1st in saves on unblocked shot attempts, 8th in high danger unblocked shot attempt save percentage, and 4th in expected high danger unblocked shot attempt save percentage. Whatever the stat is, Hart has found himself up there sitting next to some venerable names around the NHL this season.
Samuel Ersson has been a nice story, but let’s also not forget how excited everyone got when Carter Hart made his NHL debut in 2018-19. He started his career going 13-6-1 in his first 20 games with a .924 SV% and a GAA below 2.50, which also included a stretch where he won 8 straight games and 10 of 11.
The book on Ersson isn’t out yet and until then he will thrive with most teams not knowing or understanding his weaknesses. Ersson has received 25 goals of support in his 6 victories with 2 of them being of the empty-net variety, which is an average of 4.17 and 3.83 goals per game respectively and faced off against teams with a combined record of 100-115-34 coming into their game against the Flyers.
Hart has his issues which include bad angles, rebound control, and having problems with deflections, however he has been the face of the future in a time where the future is bleak at best and if you take out the 2020-21 season, he has done pretty well for a team that has been exceptionally bad. Nick Seeler, Tony DeAngelo, Travis Sanheim, Rasmus Ristolainen, and at times Cam York and Ivan Provorov is a defense corps that brings about very little confidence. The turnovers are incessant, the scoring chances allowed are through the roof – evidenced by Hart’s impeccable high danger stats – and the offense has been ice cold for the majority of the season.
As we saw on Saturday night against the New Jersey Devils, no goalie is safe with this team around them. Samuel Ersson played as well as he could have until the floodgates opened and the home team dropped 7 goals on the rookie.
It’s what Hart has gone through in his young career, it’s what Ersson will have to go through until things change, but that’s the Philadelphia way.
– All stats used are courtesy of Hockey Reference
