Within 24 hours of trading Shayne Gostisbehere to the Arizona Coyotes, the Philadelphia Flyers swung for the fences in acquiring defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen from the Buffalo Sabres. In return, the Sabres acquired Robert Hagg, this year’s first-round pick (13th overall), and a second-round pick in 2023. The price is steep considering the analytical nightmare that Ristolainen is but I have always been a firm believer that analytics tell one side of the story but not the entirety. By no means am I supporting this trade but instead suggesting that it may not be AS bad as it looks.
Acquiring defensemen has been the main priority for the Flyers this off-season and they have wanted to come out ahead of most teams. Several teams were interested in both Ryan Ellis and Ristolainen but the Flyers prevailed, something that they’ve had issues with within the past. Parting ways with this year’s first-round pick was a high cost of acquisition but when you’re in a bidding war with multiple teams offering their first-round pick, you either raise or fold. This time around, Fletcher put all his chips in the middle of the table and went all in.
Analytically speaking Ristolainen isn’t a star player but when you’re playing in Buffalo, I don’t think there is much hope for any player like Ristolainen to be of major success. Nothing seems to grow in Buffalo; They have run Ristolainen out of town with the likes of Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart not far behind him. Even Rasmus Dahlin could be finding himself in the same stagnant shoes as Ristolainen.
Seth Jones found himself in a spot similar to Ristolainen’s in terms of being an analytical catastrophe due to the flailing environment of the Columbus Blue Jackets. Jones was a prime trade candidate as well but suffered analytically because of Columbus’ downfall. Most (not all) of that can be attributed to the team, instead of the player himself.
I’m not guaranteeing that Ristolainen will blossom into a stud in Philadelphia but he’s going to be in a better position to succeed than he ever was in Buffalo. He’s escaping a messy environment and coming to a team that’s a little better established. He’s going to have less pressure likely playing second pair minutes. Also, he is going to be surrounded with better talent than available to him in Buffalo and a rejuvenated Carter Hart should help mitigate mistakes.
Yes, it was risky to trade that much for a player who carries a 5.4 million cap hit and is only signed for this upcoming season. Yes, his track record isn’t flawless but Flyers and Flyers fans alike, have been clamoring for a net-front presence with snarl and grit who can make this team a lot tougher to play against. That’s exactly what you get from Ristolainen.
On top of that, he does have an offensive upside to his game. He has recorded 46 goals and 245 points in 542 games. He also had 4 straight seasons of 40+ points and was on track for a 5th but was sidelined with an injury. His plus/minus numbers are not where they need to be by any means but how much of that is attributable to team success, or lack thereof?
Fletcher is not waiting anymore and he wants to build a win-now window. His asset management in the last few days has been questionable since he traded Gostisbehere, Hagg, a first-round pick, two second-round picks, and a seventh-round pick for Ristolainen. However, he has gone out and completely revamped the atrocious defense that was arguably one of the biggest problems last year. Instead of having Braun-Provorov/Sanheim-Myers/Prosser-Gustafsson, the Flyers look a lot better with Provorov-Ellis/Sanheim-Ristolainen/Braun-York.
What it most likely boiled down to was personnel management and how much Fletcher wanted Ristolainen. It seemed like he was the “plan B” all along after Ellis because of how coveted he made the 13th overall selection sound. He wasn’t going to trade the pick for anyone and to Fletcher, Ristolainen was second pair defenseman he was after.
At 26 years old (soon to be 27), he’s got offensive upside and the nastiness in his game that’s been missing in Philadelphia for a while. I believe we just have to wait and see what transpires. It looks bad, having to give up all those assets for that kind of a player but the trade market can be an ugly place at times. Bidding wars are something you’ll never come out on top of, even if it is the player you always wanted.
The Flyers still have around 10 million in open cap to re-sign restricted free agents Carter Hart and Travis Sanheim, find a backup goalie, and possibly a third-line center. We can’t forget that the Flyers will be exploring trading routes for Jakub Voracek and James van Riemsdyk as well. Based on what we saw from the Gostisbehere trade, it might cost another arm and a leg; something we might not have any more in terms of draft picks. However, they both hold a lot more trade value and on-ice production than Gostisbehere.
At this point, we just have to wait it out and see what else Chuck Fletcher has up his sleeve. He had everyone off their seats with the Ellis trade but it seems like everyone is back to square one with this Ristolainen deal. On paper, we look a lot better than last year already and a lot better than most people envisioned during this offseason. We now have a competent top 4 defense and if Carter hart regains his 2019-2020 form, the Flyers could be on their way to being a dangerous team again.
