It is official. The Philadelphia Flyers (8-10-2) are a quarter of the way through the 2024-2025 regular season.
The roster experienced a multitude of changes in the first 20 games. Matvei Michkov and Jett Luchanko made their NHL debuts, Noah Cates gained more trust from John Tortorella, Anthony Richard was a pleasant surprise, and Travis Konecny is scoring at more than a point-per-game pace. Travis Sanheim is playing the best hockey of his NHL career, Erik Johnson competed in his 1000th NHL game, Emil Andrae began to show that he belongs in the NHL, and Helge Grans made his NHL debut. Then, Sam Ersson established his role as the Flyers starting goaltender, Ivan Fedotov drastically improved, and Alexei Kolosov made his NHL debut.
Those bits are silver linings. They are the ‘sweet’ in a rebuild. There is some ‘sour,’ but that means room for improvement.
Tortorella maintains his focus on puck management and checking, which he felt separated the good teams from Philadelphia in the hunt for a postseason berth last season. Morgan Frost is in the proverbial doghouse, waiting his turn, even if Tortorella notices the talent he possesses. The center position remains a point of contention, and the Flyers will continue to draft to deepen the talent pool, hoping the cream rises to the top. Another issue is health. Cam York, Jamie Drysdale, Andrae, and Ersson were bitten by the injury bug, creating a trial by fire for recalls and players with limited NHL exposure.
Nonetheless, a short hop for Philadelphia keeps them competitive in the NHL Metropolitan Division.
Currently, the Flyers are 7th in the NHL Metropolitan Division and could jump the Columbus Blue Jackets and New York Islanders tomorrow with a win versus the Chicago Blackhawks. Take that optimism with caution.
Once Philadelphia dropped their latest tilt with the Carolina Hurricanes at the Wells Fargo Center, 4-1, it seemed like an opportune time to crunch the numbers. The Flyers are 3-6-2 versus teams in the top half of the NHL. They are 5-4-0 versus teams in the bottom half.
What does that say about Philadelphia after one-quarter of this season?
They are a middle-of-the-road team. The expectation of a tank for a first-overall draft pick was never accurate. But that does not eliminate the idea of the Flyers being a lottery team again. That is the most sensible assessment based on 20 games.
At their optimum, Philadelphia seems like the team from the end of last season. They earned some wins against credible opponents but are not hanging with elite teams. The Flyers are mostly defeating the opponents they should but must do it at a higher rate. If the postseason started today, it would be another season where the roster watched from home. However, with 62 games remaining on the schedule, an Eastern Conference Wildcard postseason berth is not out of reach.
Trending Upward
Travis Konecny (20GP, 11G, 12A, -5)
Konecny leads the team in scoring. He is tallying points at a 1.15 points-per-game rate. On the powerplay, Konecny leads Philadelphia in goal-scoring. In shorthanded scenarios, Konecny is the only Flyers skater with a goal. He leads all forwards in ice time and is second to Sean Couturier in even-strength scenarios.
At this rate, Konecny is pacing for about 94 points (45G, 49A) in 2024-2025.
Matvei Michkov (18GP, 6G, 9A, -3)
Michkov was the NHL Rookie of the Month for October, leading Philadelphia in powerplay points (3G, 5A). If Michkov notches another assist with the Flyers at even strength, his point production will be congruent with his powerplay prowess. In the clutch, Michkov has proven to be the best finisher on the team. He tied for the team lead in game-winning goals with Bobby Brink, Tyson Foerster, Egor Zamula, and Rasmus Ristolainen, but what makes Michkov more clutch than those teammates is his 17.6% shooting percentage. Even more impressive is that Michkov is ranked fifth on the team in total shots on goal (34), only trailing Konecny in shooting percentage (56SOG, 19.6%).
At this rate, Michkov is pacing for about 66 points (26G, 40A) in 2024-2025.
Noah Cates (16GP, 3A, +8)
Cates did not appear in the lineup on opening night against the Vancouver Canucks. The centers operating in the lineup were Ryan Poehling, Frost, Luchanko, and Couturier. Over time, Daniel Brière decided Luchanko should compete in the OHL with the Guelph Storm, Scott Laughton took on more responsibility in the center position instead of left-wing, and Cates took advantage of his opportunity while Frost proved too inconsistent for Tortorella. Tortorella challenged Cates to unlock his offense, but the comfort in his two-way skill and forechecking won Cates more ice time; his 7TK:2GV puck protection ratio is the best in Philadelphia. Recently, versus the Hurricanes, Cates began in the top six of the lineup and recorded an assist on the only goal scored by Poehling.
At this rate, Cates is pacing for about 16 points in 2024-2025, but in all likelihood, he will eventually find a goal to go with those assists.
Travis Sanheim (20GP, 5G, 7A, +2, 45BLK, 17HIT, 24TK, 23GV)
Sanheim is the most used skater on the Flyers. Overall, he averages 25:33TOI but exceeds 30:00TOI in a handful of games. He joins the rush on the attack and excels on the top pair regardless of York, Ristolainen, or Andrae on the top pair. Tortorella gave his blessing when he put Sanheim on notice, saying that Hockey Canada should give him a look. In 20 games, Sanheim boosted his stock mightily at a league-wide level.
At this rate, Sanheim is pacing for about 48 points (20G, 28A) in 2024-2025. Additionally, it would not surprise if Sanheim was a +8, 180BLK, 68HIT, 96TK, 92GV.
Emil Andrae (10GP, 3A, +1, 13BLK, 15HIT, 6TK, 12GV)
Andrae was more than Philadelphia could ask for when Drysdale (upper body) went on injured reserve following a shootout loss to the Florida Panthers. He took like a fish to water. The Flyers have points in 70% of the game when Andrae is in the lineup, and it does not seem like much of a coincidence if you watch him play. Recalled from the Lehigh Valley Phantoms, his game matured quickly in front of Tortorella and Brad Shaw. Andrae graduated from the bottom pair with Johnson and Zamula to the top with Sanheim in time to host the San Jose Sharks.
Grans deserves an honorable mention. He stepped into the lineup when Andrae (mid-body) went on injured reserve after a win versus the Buffalo Sabres. Each recalled from the Phantoms excelled in their appearances in Philadelphia. Andrae could return tomorrow versus the Blackhawks.
Brière does have a difficult decision to make. Andrae will likely remain with the Flyers, meaning Grans returns to Lehigh Valley. However, as a long-term decision, did Andrae earn a place in Philadelphia?
A more responsible assessment for Andrae resides in his placement. If he returns tomorrow gracefully, Andrae should be a candidate to remain with the Flyers instead of returning to the Phantoms.
Sam Ersson (5-2-2, 90.2%SV, 2.7GAA, 1SO, 70%QS)
Ersson, in his first handful of starts, was inconsistent. In his last four decisions, he did not dip under a 90%SV. Without a doubt, Ersson (lower body) is the starting goaltender in Philadelphia, but he got unlucky when he suffered he suffered an injury early versus the Boston Bruins. He earned three points for the Flyers in the shootout loss against the Panthers and a win versus the Sharks but retweaked the lower-body injury during practice ahead of the road trip to Ottawa.
The injury window for Ersson was between one and two weeks. Ersson will not occupy the crease tomorrow. Kolosov is the confirmed goaltender versus Chicago. The latter of the injury window allows Ersson to return on the road against the Nashville Predators or at home versus the New York Rangers.
Trending Downward
Morgan Frost (16GP, 1G, 5A, -10)
Inconsistent. In a word, that is the simplest explanation as to why Frost was a healthy scratch for four games. Last season, it seemed like Frost found common ground with Tortorella and was ready to turn the corner. However, Tortorella knows his talent. Frost needs to prove his placement in Philadelphia, who severely lack centers.
Frost will return to the lineup tomorrow versus the Blackhawks.
Ryan Poehling (17GP, 1G, 5A)
Poehling is a hard-working fourth-line center. At times, he is a spark alongside skaters like Garnet Hathaway. However, when puck management is critical in sinking or swimming against competition, Poehling is not succeeding. Among forwards, Poehling has the fourth-worst puck-protection ratio behind Laughton, Konecny, and Michkov. Two nights ago versus Carolina encapsulated a glimpse of his season in one performance: a goal that sparked the Flyers, followed by a neutral zone turnover created by Sebastian Aho for a Jack Roslovic goal.
At this rate, Poehling is pacing for about 26 points (5G, 21A) in 2024-2025.
Nick Seeler (15GP, 1G, 5A, -4, 34BLK, 15HIT, 6TK, 18GV)
Not all of this is on Nick Seeler. There is reason to believe that Seeler has been on the raw deal of defensive pairings. Also, Seeler (knee) was not healthy to begin the season. He shouldered a heavy defensive responsibility on a pair with Drysdale. Puck management on the middle pair is a difficult sell, and Seeler had to pair with the two worst offenders in Ristolainen and Drysdale.
At this rate, Seeler is pacing for about 30 points (5G, 25A). Seeler is much better than his defensive metrics display, but if these pairings remain similar, his metrics could dip to around -20, 170BLK, 75HIT, 30TK, and 90GV in 2024-2025.
Jamie Drysdale (15GP, 1G, 2A, -10, 28BLK, 2HIT, 3TK, 22GV)
‘Potential’ is a dirty word. Optimism swept Philadelphia when Drysdale was on his way in the Cutter Gauthier trade with the Anaheim Ducks. He entered the season with a clean bill of health and is impressive on his edges. Before Drysdale suffered his injury, he egregiously led all defensemen in turnovers (and still does after missing five games). There must be responsibility at even strength on defense before all the eggs lay in the powerplay basket.
When Drysdale returns, sheltered minutes on the bottom pair should be an option. It takes the defensive responsibility off his shoulders but places pressure on his offensive acumen. To date, Drysdale leads the Flyers defensemen in powerplay points, but he might take a look over his shoulder. In fewer games, Andrae is doing all of the things Philadelphia hoped Drysdale would.
