The first round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft is set to take place on the 28th of June at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville.
The draft lottery took place on the 8th of May and had the Philadelphia Flyers sticking at number 7. The order did not change until we got to the top-3, where the Chicago Blackhawks went from 3 to 1, the Anaheim Ducks dropped from 1 to 2, and the Columbus Blue Jackets dropped from 2 to 3.
The Ducks might’ve lost out on another generational talent due to a lottery draft – see Sidney Crosby from 2005 – however their consolation prize is likely Hobey Baker Award winner Adam Fantilli, who could easily be a number one pick in any other draft.
The draft order is all but set with the exception of the Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights partaking in the Stanley Cup Final – the Panthers’ first round pick is owned by the Montreal Canadiens. As for what we care about, it almost seems like the top-4 picks are more or less locked in and at the very least, the top-3 should follow as: 1) Connor Bedard, 2) Adam Fantilli, and 3) Leo Carlsson.
Matvei Michkov – another prospect who could easily be a number one prospect any other year – has the Russian tag on him that has many general managers worried about his availability. He is under contract in the KHL for years to come and it doesn’t seem like he’ll have any issues flying over the pond, but we thought the same thing about Ivan Fedotov and there’s a good chance we never see the goaltender play in the NHL. Obviously they’re in 2 very different situations, but it’s still something to worry about with this particular climate.
It still seems unlikely that Michkov escapes the top-6 with the San Jose Sharks, Montreal Canadiens, and the Arizona Coyotes all looking for a highly skilled game-changer to turn things around for their respective franchises. After that, we have Will Smith, Zach Benson, Ryan Leonard, and Oliver Moore, who are all capable of being selected anywhere between 5-8.
If the Flyers can somehow land Will Smith, they might have found their future number one centre. Smith has committed to Boston College for his collegiate career and he will be playing alongside Cutter Gauthier – who the Flyers drafted last year – as well as fellow draftee and right winger, Ryan Leonard.
In recent drafts, the Canadians have seen their pedestal dropped a little bit with the influx of Europeans and Americans being drafted in the first round. In the first round of 2013 we saw 8 Canadians drafted in the first 13 picks, and in 2014 we saw 8 Canadians drafted in the first 12 picks. Then the decline started in 2015 with 4 of the first 11 being Canadian, in 2016 it was 2 of the first 11, in 2018 it was 2 of the first 11, in 2019 it was 3 of the first 15, and in 2022 it was 5 of the first 20. There is obviously still far more Canadians in the game and in the draft, but it is somewhat remarkable seeing the recent drafts heralded by Swedes, Finns, Slovakians, and Americans – especially at the top.
The Americans dominated the 2019 draft with Jack Hughes going number 1, Alex Turcotte going number 5, Trevor Zegras going number 9, and then Matthew Boldy, Spencer Knight, Cam York, and Cole Caufield going 12-13-14-15, respectively. In 2021 we saw Owen Power, Matty Beniers, Luke Hughes, Kent Johnson, Tyler Boucher, Cole Sillinger, and Matthew Coronato within the top-13 picks all coming from either the Big Ten or the USHL.
In 2022 we saw Logan Cooley, Cutter Gauthier, Frank Nazar, and Rutger McGroarty, and this year we should see Adam Fantilli, William Smith, Ryan Leonard, Oliver Moore, Gabe Perreault, and Matthew Wood in the top-15 all coming from the collegiate level.
Smith is coming off a season where he scored 51 goals and 127 points in just 60 games for the U.S. National U18 Team. Not only did he average more than 2 points per game in the NTDP but he also scored 15 goals and 42 points in just 20 games for the USNTDP Juniors of the USHL. Funny enough, Smith didn’t even top his team in points as Gabe Perreault had 52 goals and 132 points in 63 games – another Boston College committee.
Leonard on the other hand came in 3rd on the USNTDP squad with 51 goals and 94 points with Oliver Moore coming in a not-so-distant 4th with 75 points in 61 games and Danny Nelson rounding out the top-5 with 47 points. Leonard is listed as a centre but is similar to Gauthier in the fact that he is a hybrid centre/winger. He stands at 5’10” and weighs in at 180 pounds, while Smith stands in as 6’0” and 172 pounds.
It would be a shock if Smith ended up falling from the 4-5 range to the Flyers who sit at number 7. Scott Wheeler of The Athletic said that “Smith is one of the very best slot passers in the draft and uses impressive puck handling ability to dodge close-outs, weave off of the wall, and make plays through holes in coverage in possession with ease, regularly hanging onto pucks to delay and fake his way into his spots.”
Evan Pace of Dobber Prospects said “Smith is a crafty playmaking forward with legitimate scoring and two-way upside. He works hard off the puck and attacks with intent, utilizing his puck skills to beat defenders one on one and create space for himself and his teammates.”
Corey Pronman of The Athletic said “He has a lot of individual skill and is a strong skater. He’s thus able to beat a lot of defenders one-on-one and can break shifts open. Smith is a high-end playmaker who can make a lot of difficult plays on the move.”
Elite Prospects have all the rankings from the top draft boards and Smith only makes it past 6 and into the Flyers’ lap in 2 – Dobber Prospects has him at 7 and Elite Prospects has him at 9. He is a highly skilled centreman who has all the tools into becoming a dual threat with the puck as he has the finishing abilities as well as the playmaking skills.
If the Flyers don’t get lucky enough to draft Smith, they will have the opportunity to nab his teammate in Ryan Leonard who has a lot of similarities to Gauthier. In all but one of the rankings on Elite Prospects, Leonard will be available to the Flyers. On top of his 51 goals and 94 points for the U.S. National U18 Team, he added 11 goals and 20 points in 17 games for the USNTDP Juniors and another 8 goals and 17 points in 7 games at the U18 World Junior Championship.
Scott Wheeler of The Athletic said “He’s not just the energy guy though either. He’s got really quick side-to-side hands, a hard shot that rattles off of his stick (reminds me of Leafs winger Nick Robertson in the way he unloads it and in his style of play), and quick crossover patterns that allow him to use those hands to get to places where he can look to shoot.”
Alexander Annun of Dobber Prospects said “Leonard is a well-rounded and versatile forward with good instincts in all three zones. He has a decent first step and can accelerate quickly to create separation from his man to work himself into space to make a play, and he is strong on the puck to fend off anyone who chases him down.”
Austin Garret of Smaht Scouting said “Leonard’s best weapon is his wrist shot where he’s able to load both on the rush as well as catch and shoot. He has very good puck skill and is able to dangle his way past oncoming defenders in the neutral zone as well as he possesses good small area skill in the offensive zone to get off the wall and move into the middle of the ice.”
Tony Ferrari of The Hockey News said “Leonard is an elite passenger who thrives on using his power and skill to drive the lane with the puck on his stick in the offensive zone. He also has the high-end awareness that allows him to fade in and out of pockets of space for a pass from teammates.”
Corey Pronman of The Athletic said “He’s a strong skater who competes well, with a direct style of play. He combines with that a high-skill level, and an ability to make highly skilled plays with the puck at full speed.”
In relation to what was being said about Gauthier before he was drafted,
Adam Kimelman of NHL.com said “Gauthier’s skating and shot are NHL-caliber and he’s got a power forward build (6-2, 200) that will be even better when he works with an NHL strength coach.”
Jeff Svoboda of NHL.com said “He boasts excellent size, which allows him to play a physical game, but make no mistake — this guy can score with a rocket of a shot. With his size and speed, he can be a power forward with a scoring touch at the NHL level, and while he’s listed as a wing by Central Scouting, it’s thought he could be able to play center at the highest level as well.”
Nick Richard of Dobber Prospects said “He skates well for a big kid, covering plenty of ice with a long stride and good posture. He isn’t going to consistently run guys through the boards but he will finish his checks and knows how to use his body to protect pucks along the wall or create space with strong net drives.”
Scott Wheeler of The Athletic said “On the puck, he uses inside body positioning to get to the middle off the cycle or the rush. Off of it, he finishes his checks and looks to help his line get it back.”
Gauthier jumped ahead in the draft rankings a week before the draft and became an intriguing prospect for several teams within the 5-10 range. The Flyers – as did the other teams interested – were enamoured by his energy, his board play, his 200-foot game, and his dual threat positionally as well as his game on the ice. Leonard brings a lot of those intangibles and if the points matter, he recorded 94 to Gauthier’s 65 in only 3 more games.
Gauthier took a massive leap this season with his performance at the collegiate level but as well as his international play. With Smith, Leonard, and even Perreault all playing at Boston College this year, they have the makings of becoming an offensive juggernaut with Gauthier’s ETA looking likely to be in 2024-25.
The Flyers will be adding another very talented forward to their pipeline this summer and all signs point to another member from the talented USNTDP pipeline.
I think the familiarity with Gauthier and Boston College will do a lot more good than harm for either one – if they’re chosen – and it should bring about a fun 2023-24 season, at least in terms of our prospects.
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