For non-playoff teams like the Philadelphia Flyers, tonight’s NHL Draft Lottery signifies the most exciting time between the end of the regular season and the draft itself.
Waiting over two months can be excruciating but at the very least the draft lottery gives us some insight on who the Flyers could be in line to draft come June 28th.
For most of the 2023-24 season, the Flyers weren’t much of a thought when it came to the lottery since they were entrenched and sitting comfortably in a playoff spot. However, they ended their campaign horridly as they stumbled towards the finish line with a 2-7-2 record, including an 8-game losing streak.
Even with how badly they finished things off, it came down to their very last game of the season and while they needed help from unlikely sources, they also had to ensure a regulation victory. Not only did the Montréal Canadiens blow third period leads to the Detroit Red Wings in back-to-back games, but the Washington Capitals took full advantage of the goalie being pulled in a tie game against Philadelphia and iced the victory in short order.
So while eight teams remain in the hunt for the Stanley Cup, the 16 teams that failed to qualify for the postseason will sit back and watch as the draft order takes shape tonight at 6:30pm ET in Secaucus, New Jersey. For those in the United States, it will be broadcast on ESPN, while Sportsnet will have it on their platforms for Canadian users.
The NHL changed the lottery format back in 2021 where the weighting system was completely redesigned. Back in 2017, the New Jersey Devils won the lottery despite having only the 5th-best odds to do so, while the Flyers jumped 11 spots to nab the 2nd overall pick and the Dallas Stars went from 8th to 3rd.
Similarly, in 2018, the Carolina Hurricanes went from 11th to 2nd and nabbed Andrei Svechnikov. In 2019, the New York Rangers jumped from 6th to 2nd and the Chicago Blackhawks went from 12th to 3rd. The following year was a little different because of COVID-19 and the expanded playoff bubble but “Team E” who had a 2.5% chance of winning the lottery nabbed the first overall pick. They not only made the playoffs but were in line to draft Alexis Lafrenière.
However, the league also made a change that only the top-11 teams have a chance at selecting first overall, allowing a maximum jump of 10 spots. Additionally, teams are only allowed to win the lottery twice in a 5-year span. The lottery now only draws the first two picks of the draft, while the rest of will be slotted in order of the NHL standings.
The Flyers, who currently are in prime position to draft 12th overall, due to the modifications of the new rules cannot pick first. However, they have a 5.1% chance at selecting 2nd overall, a 0.1% chance at selecting either 3rd or 4th overall, an 85.7% chance at selecting 12th overall, an 8.9% chance to drop to 13th overall, and a 0.2% chance to select 14th.
The San Jose Sharks have the best odds of winning the draft lottery and selecting Macklin Celebrini after they finished with a disastrous 19-54-9 record. They are followed by the Chicago Blackhawks, Anaheim Ducks, Columbus Blue Jackets, and the Montréal Canadiens.
The class of 2024 is supposed to be very deep and outside of Celebrini, there are the likes of Ivan Demidov, Artyom Levshunov, Cayden Lindstrom, and Zayne Parekh, among others. However, if the Flyers remain put we could see Konsta Helenius, Carter Yakemchuk, Tij Iginla, or even Cole Eiserman fall into their lap.
