On a day of two’s, the Philadelphia Flyers (15-25-10) and St. Louis Blues (29-14-6) take on each other at the Wells Fargo Center for the first time in over three years. What a hectic time between the last meeting and the upcoming tilt tonight. The Flyers went from contenders for the Cup to first overall pick hopefuls, and the Blues have seen themselves go from champions to playoff hopefuls. However, that isn’t the focus of tonight’s matchup.
You know the Flyers, but what about the Blues
Not to be mean to the Blues, but they aren’t on the most robust foundation I’ve seen. Their issue is that they don’t drive play and struggle to prevent chances. As of 2/22, they rank in 18th in shot quality for (xG for), 27th in shot quality against (xG against), and are in 22nd for shot quality percentage (xG percentage). However, shot quality doesn’t matter if your roster is the 2nd best shooting team in the league this season.
Breaking down their line by line xG, only one line has played 50 minutes together that currently drives play. Buchnevich – Thomas – Tarasenko is the second most used forward line for the Blues this season. That is not good. For whatever reason, the forwards have struggled to drive play while the defense core has at least found a way to break even or even drive play. Obviously, Craig Berube has a massive disconnect between his forwards and defense. That won’t sit well for long, but it’s at least functional for now.
You may ask, if they don’t drive play, finish well, and the forwards are playing oddly, what separates this team from the Edmonton Oilers. Well, goaltending, and specifically Ville Husso. For Blues fans, while this run is fun, it isn’t clear how talented he actually is at the moment. In his first 17 NHL games, Husso held a .893 save percentage, and then in his next 19, he’s held a .936 save percentage. So what’s his natural talent level? Who knows. There’s a train of thought that Husso is either his lights-out self from this year or the unplayable backup from last. We won’t know for a long time, but it is doubtful that he is better than Igor Shesterkin and just as good as Dominik Hasek. However, his play has cemented him as the most likely starter for the remainder of the season.
So who makes a difference – other than Husso?
The Blues have a handful of quite exceptional players who drive play and another handful who only score and do not drive play even a little bit. Ryan O’Reilly, Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas, and Jordan Kyrou clearly drive play on a night-by-night basis. Then they have players like David Perron, Brayden Schenn, and Ivan Barbashev, who don’t, but they are plus shooters. This mixture works for the forwards and allows limited players to put up gaudy point totals. The Blues function on this rocky foundation, and one might expect it to stop working, but if the shooting and goaltending hold up, they’ll be fine.
On defense, it’s still the Colton Parayko show who has solved some of his defensive issues from last year while maintaining his solid, not spectacular, offensive stats. After him, Justin Faulk and Torey Krug have provided good but not top pairing results this season. While still valuable contributors, they generate second pairing results while attempting to be similar stylistic players. Krug is a pure offensive defenseman, while Faulk has turned into a two-way defenseman since his days in Carolina.
The Blues are a team that needs their elite players, specifically those that drive play, to support their complimentary teammate. Without them, there would be issues in generating any amount of offense. So it works, but it requires elite goaltending.
Where to exploit the Blues
The top line is odd. This year, Saad and Perron are not driving play, which is weird for Saad but not for Perron. Compounding that issue is O’Reilly’s strange step backward in terms of play driving. However, they score 66.7% of the goals when they’re on the ice at 5v5. That’s a massive difference from the shot quality they create and allow while on the ice. They’re a confusing trio, but I guess it works?
The 3rd line is lacking. In the lines one game together, they played 14 minutes, were heavily out-chanced, a theme for all three of those players, and scored the only goal at 5v5 when they were on the ice. That’s a perfect encapsulation of half of the season Brayden Schenn has played in his career. He either scored or drives play except for one season (funnily enough, that’s where they won the cup).
There isn’t a pairing that screams easy on defense, even though the second pairing is slightly awkward. Nevertheless, this core is a vital spot for the Blues and makes up for the issues their forwards consistently deal with, mainly defense.
Final thoughts
The Blues are more strange than they’re good. Husso’s play has saved their season, but if that begins to falter, then it’s unclear if they could hang onto their playoff position. Jordan Binnington was the 3rd worst starter before Husso popped into his spot in the lineup. Since then, they have had almost 20 goals saved above expected. It’s a crazy turnaround, and one similar to what happened the last time the Blues won a cup. Do I think they go that far again? No. However, I said the same thing when they lifted the Cup in 2019. You can’t be 100% correct 100% of the time.
I’ll expect a classic Blues game where shooting talent and goaltending carry them forward. Now, that’s against the 2022 Flyers. So, be prepared for frustration. That being said, if you want to draft high, you have to lose, and I’d be happy with being wrong for Wright.
PHI Record: 15-25-10, 40 pts, 7th in Metropolitan
STL Record: 29-14-6, 64 pts, 3rd in Central
When: 7:00PM ET
Where: Wells Fargo Center
PHI Goalie: Martin Jones
STL Goalie: Jordan Binnington
PHI Unofficial Lineup
#76 Isaac Ratcliffe – #28 Claude Giroux – #89 Cam Atkinson
#23 Oskar Lindblom – #21 Scott Laughton – #11 Travis Konecny
#25 James van Riemsdyk – #48 Morgan Frost – #20 Gerry Mayhew
#71 Max Willman – #38 Patrick Brown – #17 Zack MacEwen
#9 Ivan Provorov – #61 Justin Braun
#6 Travis Sanheim – #70 Rasmus Ristolainen
#3 Keith Yandle – #24 Nick Seeler
#35 Martin Jones
#67 Kirill Ustimenko
STL Unofficial Lineup
#20 Brandon Saad – #90 Ryan O’Reilly – #57 David Perron
#89 Pavel Buchnevich – #18 Robert Thomas – #91 Vladimir Tarasenko
#49 Ivan Barbashev – #10 Brayden Schenn – #25 Jordan Kyrou
#37 Klim Kostin – #21 Tyler Bozak – #70 Oskar Sundqvist
#77 Niko Mikkola – #55 Colton Parayko
#47 Torey Krug – #72 Justin Faulk
#46 Jake Walman – #41 Robert Bortuzzo
#50 Jordan Binnington
#35 Ville Husso
Last Game PHI: 2/21/22, 4-3 OTL vs Carolina
Last Game STL: 2/19/22, 6-3 W at Toronto
News and Notes
- Carter Hart missed last night’s game with an eye infection. Interim head coach Mike Yeo said he was hopeful Hart would be ready for today, but Hart will miss his second straight game. He could return for Saturday against Washington.
- This is the Blues’ first visit to Wells Fargo Center since January 7th, 2019. That was Jordan Binnington’s first NHL start where the Blues won 3-0 and their “Gloria” run to the Stanley Cup was born.
- This is the 155th all-time meeting between the two teams, with the Flyers holding a 90-44-17-3 edge in the series.
Broadcast Info: NBC Sports Philadelphia, ESPN+, 97.5 The Fanatic
Injuries:
PHI – Ryan Ellis (lower-body), Sean Couturier (upper-body), Nate Thompson (shoulder), Derick Brassard (hip), Kevin Hayes (hip), Joel Farabee (upper-body), Wade Allison (knee), Carter Hart (eye)
STL – Marco Scandella (lower-body)
