The Math Behind the Struggles

The Philadelphia Flyers are into December and slowly falling out of the playoff picture entirely. To put it lightly, it hasn’t been going well, but with a new coach and a different voice, the Flyers could turn it around. Importantly, it’s time to look at some of the public analytics that may mirror some of the internal numbers that the team possesses. In short, it doesn’t look great.

The public numbers I am using come from TopDownHockey and JFreshHockey. Between him, Patrick Bacon, Dom Luszczyszyn, and Micah Blake McCurdy, we can get a strong understanding of what ails the Flyers, but I will be using JFreshHockey as of now.

The Offense

(@JFreshHockey)

Firstly, let’s start with where the Flyers stand offensively. The team is only below average instead of entirely unable to create scoring chances. While there are apparent issues with how the team generated chances, it was not all utterly terrible from a chance creation aspect. However, the Flyers sit at 21st in the NHL for chance creation at 2.38 expected goals created per game. That’s slightly higher than divisional rivals the New York Rangers (I know… shocking). What is apparent is that chance creation has bottomed out ever since the beginning of the intense losing streak.

Why did this happen? Well, first off, the Flyers started playing not to lose. While the goal of hockey is to create an outcome that isn’t losing, that does not mean that a team should only play to prevent a negative result. On too many plays, the Flyers put themselves into a position to make a controlled offensive zone entry and then throw away possession because they did the hockey equivalent of a punt by just throwing the puck deep. Now that this trend is slowly changing, the Flyers will hopefully rise the ranks in offensive creation in the league.

The Defense

(@JFreshHockey)

Defensively, the team is an utter mess. Every defenseman on the team has had their percentile rank decrease since the beginning of this year, with only Travis Sanheim and Justin Braun holding a positive value since the ten-game losing streak. Currently, the Flyers are the worst defensive team in the NHL, allowing 2.99 expected goals per game. There are a few reasons for this, but the previous breakout plan was possibly the most prominent reason for this issue.

While it is easy to get into who is at fault here, it is clear that the setup of the defense core is faulty in almost every aspect. JFresh’s model looks kindly on Sanheim’s defensive impact, which I disagree with, and Braun’s. On the other hand, his model looks incredibly negatively on Rasmus Ristolainen’s and Ivan Provorov’s defensive impacts, which I agree with both. Keith Yandle’s season has been deficient in every aspect, so it’s not surprising that he grades poorly in almost all public models. The 2021-22 Flyers defense is built to play from the defensive blue line forward and is lost the second they need to defend their own goal.

Importantly, this isn’t just the defensive core’s fault. Under Alain Vigneault’s system, the wingers exit their defensive zone with reckless abandonment in hopes of creating an odd-man rush for the Flyers. That’s bad planning. It puts the defensive core at risk of getting trapped in their zone with just the center to help. It also means that the wingers do not facilitate breakout play other than being pass receivers in the neutral zone. That type of play nerfs some of the best qualities of players like Travis Konecny and Joel Farabee, who both have historically played well through the neutral zone and into the offensive zone.

The defensemen’s inability to make quick and intelligent decisions with the puck in their defensive zone hurts the team the most. Provorov turns it over or passes himself into trouble, mainly by doing ill-advised reverses. Sanheim and Ristolainen are prone to trying too much and can either chase the game or blow assignments near the net. Not to pile onto Ristolainen, but he struggles to use his frame to win net-front battles as well. Neither Yandle nor Nick Seeler are competent NHL defenders, but Yandle is the more worrying player because he should be a strong passer, which has just not been the case this year. This is a mixture of miscast or deeply flawed players, and the entire core needs revamping.

Overall

(@JFreshHockey)

These issues led to the 31st ranking in team 5v5 expected goal creation percentage. Elite teams usually float around 55% or higher, good teams between 52% or higher, playoff teams are generally above 50%, weird teams and probably not great teams are slightly below 50%, bad teams below 48% but higher than 46%, and top pick eligible teams are below 46%. That’s a lot of numbers, but it paints a picture where the Flyers’ 44.3% expected goals for percentage stands. It’s reprehensible. The Flyers do not drive play and are far away from doing so for weeks. One of the reasons why the utter collapse was predictable was the teams’ inability to out chance opponents went from bad but maybe sustainable to horrible and unsustainable. Thus, the losing streak.

What can fix these issues has already gone into motion. First, the team made the right choice and moved on from, in my opinion, a bad coach. They then adjusted the lines to fit player needs better. No longer did player types actively clash on lines, which can be enough to unlock hidden talents.

Also, Morgan Frost’s recall boosted the overall skill of the forward core. But, unfortunately, too much of the team’s emphasis focused on safer players than a possible risk-taking offensive weapon in the summer, so there is still ground to be covered. This will not solve everything, but getting the forwards right does a lot to fix the team.

Finally, the Flyers need to take a long hard look at the defensemen on the team. If the current coaching staff can fix some of the defensive core players, that should alleviate some burdens. However, and what I expect will happen, Chuck Fletcher may need to find a way to exchange a few current Flyers for different skaters. These solutions are not easy, but ones that the team needs to start working on. Really, and every Flyers fan would like to see this; the team needs a clear direction right now, and not one that aims to recapture the team from before the pandemic. There cannot be another rinse and repeat.