The Philadelphia Flyers haven’t had a rookie sensation since Eric Lindros’ debut season in 1992-93. With Matvei Michkov having signed his entry-level contract and having found his way to city of Philadelphia, all eyes will be fixated on the Russian phenom. While Michkov-mania has more or less swept Flyers Nation, his rookie season should still be held to reasonable expectations for a variety of reasons.
The Flyers haven’t had much luck with their rookies in recent years. The highest single-season point total registered by a Flyers rookie since the turn of the century was Matt Read‘s 24 goals and 47 points in 2011-12. Simon Gagné is ahead of Read with his 20 goals and 48 points in 80 games set in 1999-00 and Shayne Gostisbehere is one spot below with his 46 point-campaign in 64 games in 2015-16.
In fact, there have been 38 rookies since 2011-12 – 45 if you include the entire crop of 2011-12 – and beyond Read and Gostisbehere, the next highest single-season total came from Noah Cates in 2022-23 with 13 goals and 38 points in a full 82-game campaign. For the record, Mikael Renberg holds the most points by a rookie in a season in franchise history when he tallied 82 in 1993-94, Pelle Eklund recorded the most assists in a single-season by a rookie in franchise history with 51 in 1985-86, and Lindros scored the most goals with 41 in 1992-93.
Fast forward to 2024-25 and Michkov enters the fray with a solid forward corps surrounding him. The Flyers were one of the best even-strength offenses in the NHL last year and that should come as no surprise, considering all their damage is done at even-strength. With the extra attacker they fell flat yet again and the hope is that Michkov can reawaken a sleeping giant and reinvigorate a very important piece for any successful NHL club.
You look around league-wide and notice a very obvious trend at the top of the table. All the leading point getters have anywhere between 35-50 power play points, which can account for anywhere between 30-45% of their grand total. Nikita Kucherov, for example, lead the league with 53 power play points and that accounted for 36.8% of his 144 points. Nathan MacKinnon registered 48 power play points, which was good for 34.2% of his 140 points, and Connor McDavid registered 44 power play points, which was good for 33.3% of his 132 points.
Other players like Artemi Panarin (36.67%), Kirill Kaprizov (42.7%), J.T. Miller (38.8%), and Mikko Rantanen (38.4%) follow suit. Of course, the glaringly obvious difference between a Tampa Bay, an Edmonton, or a Colorado is that they have firepower all throughout their lineup and also possess generational talents. However, it’s almost an absurdity that a forward corps comprising of Morgan Frost, Joel Farabee, Travis Konecny, Owen Tippett, Sean Couturier, and Tyson Foerster were only able to score 31 power play goals for the entire season.
There were some pretty bland offenses last year that completely blew the Flyers out of the water in regards to their power play. San Jose finished with 42 goals and a 20.19% effective rate, the New York Islanders finished with 47 goals and 20.35%, and Seattle finished with 50 goals and 20.66%. The differences in goals scored for the entire season between the Flyers and the Islanders for example simply came from their respective power plays.
However, the underlying numbers for the Flyers in respect to how their goals and points are registered is troublesome. Konecny scored 68 points on the season with 52 of them coming while playing on even-strength. Tippett tallied 53 points with 45 of them coming on even-strength, Farabee recorded 50 points with 43 coming on even-strength, Frost accumulated 41 points with 30 coming on even-strength, and Foerster tallied 33 points with 24 coming on even-strength.
The even-strength production for these forwards were extremely high with Konecny registering 76.5% of his points at even-strength, Tippett at 84.9%, Farabee at 86%, Frost at 73.1%, and Foerster at 72.7%. That is also factoring in the fact that Konecny almost had as many points shorthanded (7) than he did on the power play (9). In other words; if the Flyers’ power play was even passable they would have not only won a few more games and made the playoffs but individual skaters would have far better numbers to show for than what we’ve seen in recent years.
Even going a little further back, Farabee only has 7 power play goals for his career and 21 power play points, which means his 160 even-strength points account for 87.9% of his career totals. Frost is eerily similar as well with just 5 power play goals and 18 points in 5 years, which means 82.7% of his points have come while playing at even-strength. Even with Tippett, he’s scored 42 even-strength goals in the last two seasons, which accounts for 76.3% of his grand total.
Michkov has the ability to turn around this anemic power play but unfortunately that’s a lot to shoulder for a rookie. Nevertheless, the skill that he possesses and the creativity that he has shown in the MHL and KHL should bring about a lot of confidence. Assistant coach Rocky Thompson was brought back for a third season but he should be entering this year on the hot seat if the power play flounders yet again.
It’s bland, predictable, and anemic, all the while having no creativity and zero fluidity. They have trouble entering the zone to begin with and once they finally find a way, their strategy seems to be constant movement and rimming passes around the net, all the while negating the use of a one-timer that has worked for pretty much every team league-wide.
Frost led the team with 11 power play points, which was how many Reinhart registered in 13 games in the month of January. An interesting take would have Jamie Drysdale at the point of the umbrella, Couturier and Michkov along the boards on their off-wings so they can set up shop for one-timers and playmaking, Tippett in the bumper similarly to Reinhart in Florida, and having Konecny as the net-front presence to disrupt the defensemen and goaltenders, while taking control beyond the goal-line.
The second unit could follow suit with Cam York at the point, Frost and Foerster along the boards on their off-wings, Farabee in the bumper, and Bobby Brink as the net front – which sounds strange but his ability to win puck battles, and his aggressiveness in and around the net could bode well. Farabee and Brink can be interchangeable and if they want to run with Travis Sanheim they make the proper alterations but the goal is to use your players to their strengths, which sounds very obvious but is something the Flyers have not done in recent years.
Michkov’s addition to the Flyers and hopefully improvements from the other players should at least add 10-15 power play goals to their docket. Not only would the first unit be run by their most skilled players, but their second unit would still have a lot of creativity with Frost, Farabee, Foerster, and York. A bump in power play production would take Konecny’s 68 points to 80, Farabee near the 60-point mark, Tippett to blast past the 30-goal mark for the first time, and Frost to finally have a season with 55-60 points minimum – all numbers that aren’t far-fetched considering their great even-strength play.
The Flyers had an amazing power play under Joe Mullen but it has since deteriorated to the point of infamous history. They also had far more offensive weapons back then with players like Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Daniel Brière, Kimmo Timonen, Chris Pronger, and Gagné, among others. The New Era of Orange is ready to roll and while expectations are going to be high for Michkov, if he comes through with a solid rookie campaign we should be in store for many individual career-highs, more power-play goals, and hopefully more wins.
