For this exercise, we need to step into the shoes and into the mind of general manager Chuck Fletcher and understand his past, his trade history, and how he orchestrates trades. He isn’t shy when it comes to pulling the trigger on a deal that he thinks will benefit the club, regardless of the price. We’ve seen him overpay for the likes of Rasmus Ristolainen, where he threw in a first round pick and a second round pick on top of Robert Hagg. We’ve also seen him undervalue players like Shayne Gostisbehere, when he had to add a second round pick to get rid of his contract to make way for Ristolainen.
Trading the final year of James van Riemsdyk’s contract isn’t going to be pretty and will cost an arm and a leg based on previous examples and models, but it’s something the Flyers have to do if they’re seriously trying to re-tool again. Not having ample cap space or a second round pick until 2024 hurts their leverage in any deal, and because of some previously sloppy moves, the Flyers might have to cough up some other draft assets that won’t be too desirable for the fan base or the franchise in the not-so-distant future.
The Philadelphia Flyers need to rebuild; they won’t but at least it’s something that 99.99% of the fan base can concurrently agree with. With the impatient Flyers looking for a quick-fix, the upcoming off-season will most likely top the summer of 2021 with Chuck Fletcher already making phone calls and setting up the framework for “summer deals”. The Flyers currently have a shade over $8 million in open cap space with Owen Tippett, Hayden Hodgson, Zack MacEwen, Morgan Frost, Wade Allison, and Tanner Laczynski entering restricted free agency. There are a few others but not of much importance, while the unrestricted free agent list is very short with the Flyers most likely not extending Keith Yandle or Kevin Connauton, but Nick Seeler seems like a candidate to receive the “Chuck Fletcher vote of confidence” contract extension.
Even with names like Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, and Travis Sanheim generating trade buzz, the Flyers are going to need to free up cap space somehow and the most likely candidate to get the axe will be James van Riemsdyk. Any trade involving Provorov, Konecny, or Sanheim will be “hockey trades” that are going to bring players with similar value, skill, and contracts. Kevin Hayes remains a lock moving forward as well as big moneymakers in Joel Farabee, Sean Couturier, Ryan Ellis, and recently-extended Rasmus Ristolainen. The aforementioned RFAs, depth signings for their ruptured defense, and a backup goalie are going to eat most, if not all of the remaining $8 million. Trading van Riemsdyk is a must for a variety of reasons which includes: lack of production, fit, money, and overall value.
In a perfect world the Flyers would be rebuilding and therefore they would hold onto van Riemsdyk’s final year worth $7 million AAV. Instead they will now need to find a dance partner willing to take on the last year of his contract and even though there are several rebuilding teams that could fit the bill and have done so in the past, it’s still going to take an arm and a leg to alleviate that amount of cap space. Other teams know the Flyers will be desperate to have the entire contract taken off their books because retaining half won’t help them all that much. $3.5 million isn’t going to be enough when they’re looking to sign big names or acquire mid-to-top tier contracts in trades during the summer.
The final year of Marc Staal’s contract ($5.7 million AAV) was traded by the New York Rangers to the Detroit Red Wings for a second round pick, the Vancouver Canucks got rid of the expiring contracts of Jay Beagle ($3 million AAV), Antoine Roussel ($3 million AAV), and Loui Eriksson ($6 million AAV) to acquire Conor Garland and Oliver-Ekman Larsson, the Flyers had to include a second round pick in order for Arizona to take on Shayne Gostisbehere’s contract ($4.5 million AAV), the New York Islanders sent a second round pick, a conditional future second round pick, and a conditional third round pick for the Coyotes to take on Andrew Ladd’s contract ($5.5 million AAV) which had an additional season, and the Florida Panthers traded Anton Stralman’s final year ($5.5 million AAV) to the Coyotes for a prospect and a 2nd round pick. The Coyotes are apparently the primary team to target when it comes to dumping bad contracts for draft picks.
A trade of such magnitude requires an able and fitting dance partner and a very useful yet expensive future asset. The Flyers don’t have the luxury of having their draft cupboard stocked up like in the days of Ron Hextall but they do own their own first round picks in 2022, 2023, and 2024, as well as Florida’s first round pick in 2024. They don’t have a second round pick until 2024, but have one third round pick in 2022, three third round picks in 2023, and one third round pick in 2024. To get a team like Arizona or Seattle to bite on James van Riemsdyk’s final year, the Flyers might have to part with Florida’s first round pick in 2024. It sounds absurd but it will most likely be a very late first round pick, which could look like a very early second round pick. Not having a second round pick until 2024 hurts the Flyers in any trade moving forward and even though they have a slew of third round picks in the next 3 years, it’s going to cost a lot more than a few thirds based on previous deals that have gone down this identical route.
His two stints with the Flyers have covered seven seasons where he has played in 452 games and scored 127 goals. After being drafted 2nd overall in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, he played three seasons, covering 196 games and scoring 99 points as a Flyer. He then went to Toronto and spent six seasons with the Maple Leafs where he scored 154 goals and 294 points in 413 games, eclipsing 30 goals twice and coming very close another two times. He then returned to Philadelphia as a free agent and signed a big 5-year, $35 million dollar contract and in the four years since, he has scored 80 goals and 161 points in 256 games. His best season with the Flyers was in 2018-19, where he scored 27 goals and 48 points in 66 games before getting injured. He also scored 43 points in 56 games last year but most of them came at the beginning of the season when the Flyers’ top line of Farabee-Couturier-van Riemsdyk was producing at an elite level.
It’s obvious he hasn’t produced at the level the Flyers were expecting, especially after throwing 35 million his way over 5 years. He has spent the better part of his second tenure on the third line, hasn’t helped the power play all that much, and struggled whenever playing in a top 6 role with the exception of the beginning of the 2020-21 campaign. He’s been a great teammate, has represented the Flyers as a representative for the Players Association, and has always had the potential to be a great goal scorer. However, he’s been incredibly streaky, he doesn’t drive the play, he doesn’t utilize his big frame, and the Flyers are heading in a different direction that both player and team should realize isn’t a good fit anymore.
Whoever the Flyers trade him to can easily flip him at the trade deadline for even more future assets, especially when retaining half of his salary. James van Riemsdyk at $3.5 million as a rental at the trade deadline can and will help any contending team looking for a power play presence, secondary scoring, and veteran leadership. The price is going to be very steep but the Flyers need every penny imaginable if they believe another re-tool can help bring this franchise back to playoff contention. They have a second round pick in 2024 they can dangle, but the Panthers’ first round pick in the same year might hold a little more value to another team. It would be a few picks ahead of the Flyers second rounder but it’s the going rate for burying heavy contracts on rebuilding teams. The Flyers need to rebuild and as soon as possible, that much is known. However, we also know that that isn’t going to happen with Chuck Fletcher and Dave Scott running the show. A move like this is unnecessary for the future but for the Flyers, the future is another word like “rebuilding”, that they refuse to adhere to.
