While a lot of the focus has been surrounding trade targets in Scott Laughton and Rasmus Ristolainen, there’s another player that the Philadelphia Flyers will be keeping close tabs with during the offseason in Noah Cates.
Anthony Di Marco of Daily Faceoff mentioned recently that the Flyers will not be looking to trade the upcoming RFA but when it comes to an extension, his camp is looking for a one-year deal with his UFA eligibility being right around the corner.
Cates’ contract season has gone off without a hitch as he’s formed a formidable trio with Tyson Foerster and Bobby Brink. Head coach John Tortorella has utilized Cates in all situations this year and he generally goes toe-to-toe with the opposition’s best lines, akin to Sean Couturier in previous years.
The Flyers’ bread and butter in recent years has been their 2-way, 200-foot, defensive-minded forwards. Those players were prioritized during the draft and left the organization without a legitimate sniper or offense-first type of player.
While Cates was a 5th round pick during the 2017 NHL Entry Draft, he quietly rose through the ranks while playing with the University of Minnesota-Duluth before finally realizing his NHL dream with the Flyers at the end of the 2021-22 season.
Cates put up 39 goals and 99 points in 129 games across 4 seasons on the NCAA circuit. His best season came during the COVID-shortened campaign of 2019-20 where he put up 33 points in 34 games but still finished on a strong note with 24 points in his final year.
He bypassed the Lehigh Valley Phantoms completely and has been a fixture in the every day lineup since his debut in 2021-22. After putting up 5 goals and 9 points in his first 16 games, Cates was always expected to play a sizeable role ahead of the 2022-23 season, but it increased exponentially with Couturier sidelined for the entire season.
Cates put up 13 goals and 38 points, a +3, only 12 PIM, 86 hits to 65 blocked shots, and a wicked 60:13 takeaway to giveaway ratio across 17:46 ATOI. For his efforts he finished 9th in Calder Trophy voting for the top rookie in the league and 15th in Selke Trophy voting as the best defensive forward.
2023-24 was a bit of a bumpier road for Cates who went from playing in all 82 games and averaging nearly 18 minutes a night to having been limited to 59 games due to injuries and seeing his ice-time slashed by almost 4 minutes a game (13:48).
He still put up quietly good underlying numbers like his 33:5 takeaway to giveaway ratio alongside his 51.6 CF% and 56.0 FF%. With Couturier back in the fold and the team relatively healthy up front, his role diminished slightly.
Fast forward to 2024-25 and Cates has reestablished himself as a top-6 forward for the Flyers. In 57 games to date he’s already matched his career-best 13 goals and is 11 points away from the 38 points he posted two years ago.
He holds a +7, just 10 PIMs, a 16.0 shooting percentage, and 58 hits to 38 blocked shots across 15:17 TOI. Surprisingly he holds a 15:20 takeaway to giveaway ratio but he has taken on more of an offensive role with Foerster and Brink.
Per MoneyPuck, the Flyers have only run 9 line combinations that have skated together for over 60 minutes with Cates, Foerster, and Brink having been together for 373.7 minutes in a span of 42 games. They hold the 3rd-highest xGoals% on the team at 58.9, the highest xGoals For at 20.5, and they’re 3rd in xGoals For Per 60 Minutes at 3.29.
The trio have played the 11th-most minutes together league-wide and have come through with flying colours. Amongst trios with over 150 minutes played, they are 16th in xGoals%, 11th in xGoals For, and 18th in xGoals For Per 60 Minutes. If you dig a little deeper they are 4th in the league amongst trios who have played in over 260 minutes in xGoals% and 5th in xGoals For Per 60 Minutes.
It sounds like both sides are in an amicable relationship at the moment and while the Flyers are looking for a longer termed deal, Cates’ camp is more than happy to wager on a one-year deal.
UFA eligibility is one of the main things that players look forward to since it more or less gives them complete autonomy over their decision-making process. As a restricted free agent there are a lot more hurdles to regaining your complete freedom like qualifying offers and arbitration cases.
Di Marco mentioned that the Flyers are probably looking at Vegas Golden Knights forward Nicolas Roy as a comparable when he signed a 5-year deal worth $15 million. Unfortunately with the salary cap rising, the contracts are as well and Cates is no exception.
His camp could be convinced into signing a 4-5 year deal like Roy did but the AAV would have to align with the exponential rise in the salary cap and that could come in at a cost of $4 million to $5 million per season.
As things stand right now, the Flyers have $26 million dollars in cap space going into the summer but that can change with the trade deadline approaching and Laughton and Ristolainen potentially being dealt. They also have to extend pending RFAs in Foerster and Cam York in addition to Cates.
That number jumps to $57.65 million in the summer of 2026 – when Cates could be up for unrestricted free agency depending on his motives this summer – and that includes the aforementioned contracts not on the books as well as Ryan Poehling, Nicolas Deslauriers, Jamie Drysdale, Egor Zamula, and all 3 goaltenders.
Cap space isn’t going to be a problem for the Flyers for the first time in a very long time but they should still be apprehensive about handing out 4+ years of term and close to $5 million in AAV to a forward who has yet to top 40 points.
He’s extremely gifted at what he does best and if he continues to get the same opportunities, Cates will thrive into the conclusion of his contract year. There is an understanding from both sides of getting a deal done, so there isn’t any worry about him walking but it boils down to term and AAV.
With Cates willing to bet on himself in 2025-26, that will put a lot of onus on his performance but the Flyers have utilized the 26-year-old centre as a focal point of their offense so expect more of the same moving forward from the former University of Minnesota-Duluth alumni.
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