After Thursday’s victory over the Columbus Blue Jackets, coupled with the losses to the New Jersey Devils and Ottawa Senators, the Philadelphia Flyers currently sit 28th in the NHL with 11 games remaining. For those who want the Flyers to tank, continue to lose, and accrue better odds for the NHL lottery, the Flyers have to contest with the Devils, Seattle Kraken, Montreal Canadiens, and Arizona Coyotes who are 1, 5, 6, and 8 points behind Philadelphia respectively. Chicago and Ottawa are directly above the Flyers, holding onto 26th and 27th place by the slimmest of margins. With the Flyers fielding a relatively healthy lineup and a schedule that features a lot of bottom feeders who the Flyers are either above or under, the last 3 weeks of the season will be something to keep an eye if you’re looking for something to cheer for.
The schedule is as follows: vs. Anaheim on April 9th, at Washington on April 12th, vs. New York on April 13th, at Buffalo on April 16th, vs. Buffalo on April 17th, at Toronto on April 19th, at Montreal on April 21st, vs. Pittsburgh on April 24th, at Chicago on April 25th, at Winnipeg on April 27th, and vs. Ottawa on April 29th to close out the season. There are 5 homes games versus 6 road games, 3 games against the Western Conference versus 8 games against Eastern Conference teams, and 4 games against playoff teams versus 7 games with teams sitting out of the playoff spot. More importantly, out of those 7, five of those games are with teams within striking distance down in the basement.
The Anaheim Ducks are 28-32-12 with the Flyers losing 4-1 in their matchup back in January when the Ducks were near the top of the Pacific Division. The Washington Capitals are 38-22-10 with the Flyers owning the season series 2-1-0 with 2 victories coming in November and the end of February. The very next night they face-off against the New York Rangers, who are 46-20-6 with the Flyers winning their most recent matchup in the shootout but dropping the first 2. They finish off their season series with Buffalo next as they embark on a home-and-home with the Sabres who have a 26-35-11 record and won the lone matchup back in January by a score of 6-3. The Flyers then head north of the border and face-off against the Toronto Maple Leafs (46-19-6) and the Montreal Canadiens (20-40-11) where the Orange and Black have a combined 0-2-2 record while losing twice to the Canadiens in overtime and then being thoroughly outplayed by the Leafs in their 3-0 and 6-3 losses.
The Flyers’ final back to back of the season features the Pittsburgh Penguins (41-21-10) and the Chicago Blackhawks (24-36-11) with the Penguins looking to sweep the season series (3-0-0 with 2 overtime wins), while the Flyers look for a rare season series sweep of their own against the Blackhawks. Their final road game of the season is north of the border but to the west as they face-off against the Winnipeg Jets (33-28-10) with the Flyers up 1-0 in the series after a 3-1 win to kick-off the month of February. Finally, the final game of the season will peg the current 27th and 28th placed teams as the Ottawa Senators (26-38-6) look to take the season series after winning their last game in March but dropping the first one back in December.
In total, the Flyers are a combined 6-9-4 against their upcoming opponents, hone a 13-17-6 record on home ice where they play five more games, and a 10-20-5 record away from the Wells Fargo Center with six road games still to go. They’re also 7-12-4 against the Metropolitan Division as they have three more games left against their divisional foes, 14-12-3 against the Western Conference with three games left to better their above .500 record, and 9-25-8 against the Eastern Conference as they look to make their record a little more palatable with eight games left within the conference.
The Flyers have been abhorrent on both sides of the puck as they sit 29th in goals per game, 16th in shots on goal per game, 32nd on the power play, 26th in goals against per game, 29th in shots allowed per game, and have the 23rd-best penalty killing unit. Their record against their upcoming opponents isn’t great, they have had such horrid luck against the Eastern Conference which represents 8 out of their last 11 games, and trying to rely on them to go either way (up or down in the standings) is a nearly impossible task.
With how random the draft lotteries have been over the last several years, the NHL has implemented two new rules: 1) no team can move more than 10 spots, meaning picks 12-16 have no chance of earning the top pick, and 2) no team can win the lottery twice in a 5 year span with 2022 marking the beginning of the 5 year-period. Once the first 2 picks have been determined, the remaining picks will follow the standings and where each team finished going from worst to best. This was implemented to make sure that the team that finished in last place would pick no worse than 3rd overall.
Finishing last ensures you a 25.2% chance of drafting 1st overall, second last gives you a 12.1% chance, 3rd last is 10.9%, 4th last is 9.7%, 5th last is 8.5%, 6th last is 7.6%, 7th last is 6.7%, 8th last is 5.8%, 9th last is 5.4%, 10th last is 4.5%, and 11th last gives you a 3.1% chance. Barring a hot-run to end the season, a collapse of epic proportion, or a collapse up above them from the likes of Anaheim, San Jose, Detroit, or Buffalo, the Flyers should remain in the 26th-31st range in the overall standings. Montreal at 31st are 6 points behind the Flyers but that remaining matchup is essential. The Arizona Coyotes, who are dead last with 49 points and no games scheduled again with the Flyers, seem too far out of reach with only 11 games left. That would give them odds between 6.7% and 12.1% but with a very realistic range between 6.7% to 9.7%. This year’s draft isn’t supposed to be as deep or stacked as the ones from yesteryears past with the stars of the show most likely falling between picks 1-8, which has the Flyers in line for a really solid player to add to their pipeline.
There’s a slight drop-off after the eventual first pick of Shane Wright, who seems to be the consensus number one pick, but players like Logan Cooley, Juraj Slafkovsky, Simon Nemec, David Jiricek, Matthew Savoie, and Joakim Kemell are still tantalizing prospects for a team in desperate need of some youthful injection.
