Dave Scott has been radio silent, Chuck Fletcher has been very quiet, and unlike last season, we haven’t heard much from the upper management of the Philadelphia Flyers. There were reports that Dave Scott refused media availability, which was something he didn’t do last season when he was sticking his neck out for his general manager. Chuck Fletcher was also a lot more vocal and noticeable with his team sinking quicker than the Titanic. This season things are a lot different and that has to do with John Tortorella, who might be the shot-caller for the time being. He is using buzzwords relating to a rebuild, a lot of transitional lingo like patience and building, and most importantly trying to start from the ground up without making any ill-advised moves – as he mentioned countless of times over the summer, signing Johnny Gaudreau.
Things seemed to be smooth at the beginning of the season with most of his players. He did bench Travis Konecny and Kevin Hayes in a late October tilt against the San Jose Sharks, he did the same thing to Wade Allison and Morgan Frost a few games later, and he’s had similar run-ins with players like Rasmus Ristolainen and Tony DeAngelo. Tortorella – and the rest of the hockey world – knows that the Flyers aren’t going to be world-breakers this season but he wants to see the effort, determination, and the right attitude. According to opposing teams, coaches, players, and even broadcasters, a John Tortorella-run hockey club is tough, gritty, and never gives up, which we’ve heard all season long. This system that he’s implementing has rewards for those who continue to prosper like Noah Cates, Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny, Cam York, and now Morgan Frost. Whereas on the flip side, if heads start to butt you’re going to be on the wrong side of destiny.
Kevin Hayes has become that player for Tortorella and it seems like the Flyers are willing to move on from the centreman they signed to a lucrative 7-year deal back in the summer of 2019. I don’t think it’s a secret that if the perfect deal were to present itself, the Flyers would be willing to accept to get out of the remaining 3 years that affect the salary cap with a hit of $7.142 million. This is historically a team that has never managed the salary cap properly and being able to rid that much money would do wonders for the present and the future. There are several drawbacks but none more illustrious than the fact that not many teams can afford $7.142 million flat. The interest for the player is there but now it’s starting to become apparent that the Flyers will have to retain salary if they want to move forward with a deal.
One option that was thrown around a few weeks ago – at the height of his healthy scratch – was a potential buyout. If Kevin Hayes were to be bought out at the end of the season, the Flyers would be on the hook for cap hits of $2.253 million in 2023-24, $4.753 million in 2024-25 and 2025-26, and 1.61 million from 2026-27 to 2028-29. In other words they would be saving $4.89 million in 2023-24, 2.39 million in 2024-25 and 2025-26, and then would incur losses of $1.61 million from 2026-27 to 2028-29.
Reports have surfaced that if the Flyers are willing to retain anywhere between $2-$3 million, then interest would spike, and several teams would be knocking on the door trying to pry Hayes away from Philadelphia, according to both Anthony Di Marco and David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period. Using Pagnotta’s example, if the Flyers were to retain 30% of his contract – $2.142 million – that would mean a contending team would only be on the hook for the remaining $5 million.
Kevin Hayes at 5 million dollars for the next 3 seasons is a lot more palatable than Kevin Hayes at 7.142 million dollars for the next 3 seasons. The more the Flyers are willing to retain, the better the haul. Retaining $3 million would mean 42% and I don’t see why the Flyers would find that so abhorrent that they couldn’t do it. It seems like this would be the most logical option as they would still save $4-$5 million over the next 3 seasons – slightly more than what they would be saving with a buyout – and they wouldn’t have any dead cap after the 2025-26 season. A move of this magnitude would get the ball rolling on change. I refrain from the term rebuild because I still don’t see the Flyers getting with the program.
Personally I think they’re seeing what they’ve accomplished over the last month and are thinking to themselves, “if we had Sean Couturier, Cam Atkinson, and Ryan Ellis, we’d be in the race for a playoff spot,” which is something they want more than anything in the world right now. I also get the idea that the better they play, the more they win, and the more they win, the more job security Chuck Fletcher earns.
With Couturier, Atkinson, Sanheim, and Ristolainen among others still under their employ, eating away at valuable cap space, unless they find a suitor for them all, I can’t see them signalling a teardown. What I do see happening is trading a little bit here, trading a little bit there, creating a new “core” and building around that. The Flyers are still a relatively young team and Tortorella wants to know who he has and what they have to offer and so far he’s liking what he’s seeing from Morgan Frost, Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny, Joel Farabee, Noah Cates, Cam York, and Carter Hart.
Trading Hayes with retention is still going to free up ample amount of cap space, James van Riemsdyk’s $7 million comes off the books as well, and all of a sudden the Flyers have anywhere between $10-$12 million at their disposal. Ivan Provorov also seems like a likely candidate to get traded for draft capital and prospects, so we can add his $6.75 million to the tab. All of a sudden the Flyers are walking around with $20 million in open cap space and not having to re-sign anyone that would break the bank.
The only expiring contracts are Justin Braun, Zack MacEwen, Patrick Brown, Morgan Frost, and Cam York. The latter 2 will get re-signed to low-end bridge-type deals, while the former 3 have a good to great chance of being traded at the deadline for future draft capital.
What I feel the Flyers are going to liken is that they will be replacing Hayes and van Riemsdyk with a healthy Couturier and Atkinson next season and Tortorella and company will be very pleased. Two responsible, two-way forwards, one he has experience with, and another fits his mold to a tee. That is the route I believe the Flyers are heading towards. They also have young players knocking at the door in Tyson Foerster and – one would think – Bobby Brink, with the outside chance of Cutter Gauthier.
If trading Provorov is in the cards, then they need to find his replacement, whether in the same trade, a different deal, or free agency, but that will be their number one priority. After that the chips will fall as they may, as Tortorella has a clear plan in motion and he’s done an excellent job in transforming this team with his accountability, leadership, and system.
A Hayes trade could occur ahead of the trade deadline with several contending teams needing centre depth. Hayes would prefer to stay on the East Coast so look for Boston or Carolina to be at the forefront, but he’s not as married to the idea as Claude Giroux was. He does however hold a modified-NTC so he has some input on where he goes. However, for now this is all hearsay until things actually pick up, rumours start to truly intensify, and both parties come to a mutual agreement.
In saying that, it seems like there’s a clear fracture between player and team, and things have only gotten worse since the healthy scratch incident. Hayes looks less determined, bothered at times, and uninvolved, which is saying something considering the fact that he plays with 2 motors in Wade Allison and Scott Laughton.
Several outlets have been reporting about the possibility of a breakup and it’s not just a coincidence that both Provorov and Hayes – players with term – have come to the forefront with the trade deadline only a few months away.
