2 very important decisions have to be made this off-season – or this season if both sides are interested – by the Philadelphia Flyers regarding the future contract extensions for Owen Tippett and Carter Hart.
Both players are set to hit restricted free agency, the Flyers will be heading into their second year of their rebuild with a shade under $19 million in cap space, and should be all-in on bringing back soon-to-be cornerstones at their respective positions. The only real dilemma would be whether or not they decide to go for another bridge deal or break the shackles and extend them long-term.
The Flyers have found themselves in a very interesting situation this year. No one gave them a shot entering the 2023-24 season but as we sit here in the middle of January, the club is 2nd in the Metropolitan Division and trail the Stanley Cup-contending New York Rangers by just 2 points for the top spot.
There are a variety of reasons as to why they have exceeded expectations and a couple of them involve the goal scoring of Owen Tippett and the stout goaltending from Carter Hart. Contract years are always tricky but for a club that is looking to build around it’s core of players around the age of 25, Tippett and Hart should be leading the charge.
With the salary cap increasing from $83.5 million to $87.5 million in the summer of 2024 and then projected to jump to $92 million in the summer of 2025, a lot of players opted for shorter term deals in anticipation of the raised cap. Both players are coming off team friendly deals and will be looking to cash in on what has been a rather successful start to their respective seasons.
Anthony Di Marco of The Fourth Period wrote back in November that he has heard from sources close to the team that the Flyers are willing to extend Tippett to a long term deal as long as the AAV is reasonable. The last thing the Flyers want to do at this stage of their rebuild is to dig themselves a deep hole with salary cap issues – something that both Paul Holmgren and Chuck Fletcher succeeded in doing.
Di Marco went on to compare Tippett’s future contract with that of Tampa Bay Lightning forward Brandon Hagel, who signed an 8-year deal with a cap hit of $6.5 million per season. While the Flyers have no issues with the 8-year term, the $6.5 million cap hit is something they might want to avoid, according to the same sources.
He finishes off by stating that Tippett’s camp will likely start in the $7 million AAV range but the leverage probably falls within the Flyers’ side of the spectrum. The Flyers might start with Travis Konecny’s $5.5 million AAV and creep closer to the $6 million range and maybe into Valeri Nichushkin’s range – $6.125 million per season for 8 years.
Since the article was written, Tippett has stepped up in a big way and perhaps has gained a little bit of leverage. Up until the 7th of November, Tippett had scored just 2 goals and 6 points in 13 games. Since then, he’s returned to his “Flyers form” scoring 16 goals and 24 points in 33 games, firing 125 shots, and averaging 15:57 TOI. He was mired in a 5-game pointless drought but has since scored 6 goals and 8 points in his last 8 games, including highlight reel tallies in back-to-back games.
Signing a player to the maximum number of years is always risky and always brings about a larger cap hit. However, Tippett is still very young and has untapped potential that could boom in a very big way when the Flyers are ready to contend.
The soon-to-be 25-year-old has 45 goals and 79 points in 123 games in the past 2 seasons with 398 shots on goal, 11.3% shooting percentage, 16:50 ATOI, 193 hits, and a 62:40 takeaway to giveaway ratio. Only 16 of those points have come with the man advantage, shining on his strong even strength play – and one can only imagine how much better his numbers would look if the power play was clicking.
While $7 million is a high asking price, I can see both sides coming an agreement in the low $6 million range. Konecny’s $5.5 million AAV might be too low considering how the market has fluctuated and changed in recent years and with the salary cap rising exponentially in the next 2-3-4 years – which is what players and agents have been waiting for after years of the flat cap.
Factoring in a player’s actual worth versus market value is tricky because on the open market, teams are more than willing to spend above and beyond to ensnare their targets. In actuality, Tippett should fetch a Konecny-like deal in the $5.5-$5.8 million range but due to the market, he will likely land in the Nichushkin/Hagel range of $6-$6.25 million. 8 years worth $50 million could be on the horizon, especially if he continues to score at will and remains aggressive – as we saw against Dallas.
Tippett has been getting better and better and with Tortorella continuing to hand important minutes to the “Red Rifle”, his confidence and game will only soar from here on out. If the Flyers went long-term, an 8-year deal in the $6-$6.25 million range might work out like gangbusters if he can reach the 30-35 goal plateau on a consistent basis. He fell short of the 30-goal mark last year by 3 in 77 games but is currently on a 33-goal pace.
As for Hart, the goaltending market is much more difficult to traverse. Carey Price and Sergei Bobrovsky carry the mammoth $10.5 million and $10 million cap hits, respectively. Andrei Vasilevskiy is right behind them at $9.5 million, and this year it’s a log-jam between $6.4 million and $5 million.
At one point in time, it seemed like the goaltending market was ready to boom but after Bobrovsky’s $70 million deal, the rest of the league was put on notice. In his first 4 seasons, Bobrovsky put up a 105-54-14 record however he posted a 2.97 GAA and a .905 SV%.
He shone in the postseason last year as he helped the Florida Panthers reach the Stanley Cup Final, going 12-6 with a .915 SV% alongside a 2.78 GAA. He was sensational from Game 3 of the Boston series all the way to Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals, going 11-1-0 while holding onto a .942 SV% and allowing just 27 goals. The Golden Knights were just too talented and deep as he posted a .844 SV% and allowed 21 goals in 5 games in the Final.
Vasilevskiy earned his stripes for being in a class of his own after a dominating 6-year stretch where he went 222-91-20 with a .919 SV% and a 2.50 GAA in the regular season. Then he became even more dominant in the post-season en route to two Stanley Cups and a Conn Smythe.
While those aren’t Hart’s comparables, it’s important to set the bar. Connor Hellebuyck was just recently extended to a 7-year deal worth $8.5 million, while Ilya Sorokin’s $8.25 million cap hit starts to count next season as well. After them you have John Gibson, Jacob Markström, Jordan Binnington, Phillipp Grubauer, Igor Shesterkin, Elvis Merzļikins, Tristan Jarry, Darcy Kuemper, Linus Ullmark, and Thatcher Demko between $6.4 million and $5 million.
The Flyers have some of the leverage in this situation as they can point to goaltenders like Shesterkin, Ullmark, and Demko as Hart’s contractual comparables. Shesterkin is ultimately one of the best goaltenders in the league, Ullmark has shone in Boston after being overshadowed by Buffalo’s struggles, and Demko is almost identical to Hart where he started off great, fell off a little bit as the team struggled as well, and then righted the ship.
Hart is currently 12-9-3 on the season in 26 starts with a .906 SV% and a 2.80 GAA with 1 shutout. After a rough couple seasons between 2020-21 and 2021-22, he has steadily improved with a .906 SV% in the past 2 seasons – for 2 very bad Flyers teams.
He is coming off a 3-year deal that carried a cap hit of $3.975 million so an extension in the 4-5 year range with a cap hit of $5.25-$5.5 million isn’t necessarily out of the realm of possibility. $6 million would be a little egregious, anywhere above the 5-year range would be too long – as is the case with most goaltenders – and his play hasn’t been extraordinary where he needs to be on par with some of the higher-paid netminders in the league like Sorokin or Hellebuyck.
Outside of Tippett and Hart, the Flyers will have Ryan Poehling, Bobby Brink, and Egor Zamula entering restricted free agency while Sean Walker, Marc Staal, and Nick Seeler will be entering unrestricted free agency. Of the 6, the Flyers will retain Brink and Zamula, would more than likely bring back Poehling, trade Staal at the deadline, and then mum’s the word on Walker and Seeler.
With Jamie Drysdale in the fold, Walker becomes expendable and will recoup a pretty penny at the deadline, while the organization is fully enthralled with Seeler and his style of play to keep him around for a few more seasons at a cost-effective cap hit.
Either which way, the Flyers will be in a good spot financially to not only extend Tippett and Hart long-term but to also retain the rest of their desirable RFAs and Seeler – should they look to bring him back.
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