We’ve heard about the prospects that will be headlining the 2023 NHL Entry Draft for years and now that we are 2 weeks away from the podium, it’s time for the rumours to start flying and circulating like wildfire.
Connor Bedard has rightfully stolen the show as he has been tabbed as the next generational talent on the same level as Connor McDavid. While we can talk on and on about his prowess, abilities, and game-changing intangibles, it’s sometimes hard to remember that there are 3 more players who could’ve easily been picked first overall in a different year in Adam Fantilli, Leo Carlsson, and Matvei Michkov.
The draft order is all but set, with the lottery giving us the first 14 selections and the playoffs doing the rest. There is almost no chance that the first three names in order are not Connor Bedard to Chicago, Adam Fantilli to Anaheim, and Leo Carlsson to Columbus. Months ago, and even a few weeks ago, there was a raging debate on who will be picked third overall between Carlsson and Michkov, however there is a sense amongst people within the NHL that the latter brings about some uncertainty – not due to his talent but with his availability.
Michkov is of course of Russian descent, and the last few years have proven to be tumultuous and rocky at best for Russia and it’s athletes. The fear of the KHL was always lingering as they ensnared Ilya Kovalchuk, finally got their hands on Pavel Datsyuk, and the rumours revolving Alexander Ovechkin were ones to never bat an eye on. The new fear that has started to rise is the idea that maybe they never fly over the pond and play in the NHL.
The Philadelphia Flyers have first-hand experience as goaltending prospect, Ivan Fedotov, was arrested and detained for allegedly trying to flee the nation from his military conscription. It was an ongoing saga for a few days, there were reports of white vans kidnapping him, Fedotov going off the grid only to be found in the Arctic, medical fallacies, and ultimately his 1-year military service that kept him away from the NHL.
Fedotov had signed his 1-year ELC with the Flyers and was a week or so away from reporting to Philadelphia ahead of training camp. After a fantastic season that not only saw him play a huge role in winning the Gagarin Cup – the KHL equivalent of the Stanley Cup – he also posted ridiculous splits en route to a silver medal at the Olympic Games.
The 6’8” goaltender was ripe and ready for the NHL and the Flyers were hoping he’d challenge for the backup spot ahead of the 2022-23 season, unfortunately that never came to pass as he was sent to the Arctic to serve his military service. Now that he has, there are still question marks surrounding the very idea of him even coming over to North America as the President of CSKA Moscow said he plans to see Fedotov on his team ahead of their new season.
It has been a fear lingering over the NHL like a dark cloud for some time and that has – at times – cost the draft stock of some Russian forwards. However, Fedotov’s case seems to be the anomaly for now. Kirill Kaprizov, Ilya Sorokin, and Igor Shesterkin were drafted by their teams in 2015, 2014, and 2014 but didn’t make their NHL debuts until 2020-21, 2020-21, and 2019-20, respectively, having played out the length of their KHL contracts.
There are some instances where they can find a way to break the contract, like how the Washington Capitals got Ivan Miroshnichenko out of his deal. It was reported during the Fedotov saga that sometimes they pick and choose when they want to drop the hammer just based on the player, their impact, and the team they’re going to. Michkov is a prime talent in Russia right now and seems unlikely for St. Petersburg to back out of their deal until it’s completion in 2026.
Steven Ellis of Daily Faceoff added another wrinkle around the whole situation:
“A lot of NHL teams either lessened their Russian scouting core, stopped sending crossover scouts or just pulled everyone out of Russia altogether following the start of the conflict between the country and Ukraine. So a lot of the looks teams had on Michkov were through video, which doesn’t give you the same frame of reference.
“Usually, Russia would be a major threat in any major international competition. For the past two years, scouts were robbed of seeing Michkov compete against the world’s top talents. We already know how he stacks up locally – some believe Michkov is the best Russian prospect since Malkin or Alex Ovechkin, and it’s hard to argue against that.”
Not only has the scouting lessened or dropped completely within the country itself but due to their ban, we haven’t been able to see the young Russian talents on the big stage. He added that when we did in fact get a taste of Michkov against Shane Wright, Connor Bedard, and company at the 2021 U18 World Championships, he paced the whole tournament with 12 goals and 16 points and was by far the best player.
Michkov has been dubbed as the “Russian Bedard” and it’s hard not to see why. He shares the same intangibles, abilities, game-changing skill, and generational status with the sole caveat being Canadian versus Russian. The political landscape has put a damper on things, even in the hockey world.
However, one theory could also be in play that maybe some people are leaking falsified stories and claims to ruin his draft stock. We’ve seen this tactic in the NFL before and it does work. Perhaps we’ll never know the truth but there’s a great chance that Michkov drops out of the top-4, could fall out of the top-6, could be in play for Philadelphia, and if they balk he could end up in Washington, which has been a haven for Russian players for years.
The reports and reviews of Michkov and his game have been quite impressive.
Elite Prospects: “The rare triple-threat winger, Michkov is a constant threat to find the back of the net. His puck skills are near the top of the draft, owing to immense creativity, hip pocket handling, dextrous hands, and a never-say-die attitude. You may think that you have him, but most of the time, you really don’t. His ability to problem-solve his way out of defensive pressure is at a level all its own. Michkov creates plays on the ice that we can’t even fathom with the benefit of a bird’s eye view.”
Tony Ferrari from The Hockey News: “The top end of Michkov’s game is as good as anyone in the draft class, but the consistency at even strength and willingness to attack the middle of the ice have been issues this season. Michkov is a highly skilled shooter who can score from just about anywhere on the ice.”
Corey Pronman from The Athletic: “He can make plays at a high level, but Michkov is a finisher who will score a lot of goals as a pro. He’s an undersized winger who is a fine skater but lacks true separation speed so it will be interesting to see how much damage he can do as a pro in the near future.”
Scott Wheeler from The Athletic: “Michkov’s brilliance comes primarily from his ability to read and process the play at an extremely advanced level, make his decisions quickly, and execute on them with incredible consistency, whether that’s ripping a patterned shot (his one-timer, his standstill wrister, his curl-and-drag, etc.), a quick move into a pass, a sudden stop-up, or an attacking cut.”
Dobber Prospects: “He sees the ice differently, which allows him to create space for himself, get open for passes, or locate teammates to set up for scoring chances. His playmaking is high-end, too, despite being overshadowed by his sensational shooting ability.”
The list is endless from what analysts, draft-makers, and scouts have said about the uber-talented youngster. With San Jose, Montreal, and Arizona occupying the 4-5-6 spots in the draft – right in front of Philadelphia – there has been too much talk about Michkov slipping. Montreal seemed like the team that would take the risk – if there is one – but have been rumoured to be looking elsewhere now towards Will Smith or Zach Benson.
This in effect hurts the Flyers in the sense that if you were hoping for Will Smith, Zach Benson, Ryan Leonard to be around at #7, you better hope that Michkov gets taken before. Smith is too good to drop even from the 4th slot, Benson has started to rise even higher in the draft rankings, and Leonard seems like a very safe pick at 5 or 6. That would leave the Flyers with Michkov, Dalibor Dvorsky, Oliver Moore, or even David Reinbacher – something that was far less of a possibility just a few weeks ago.
The silver lining with Michkov is that his contract isn’t up until the end of 2026. He’ll be 22-years-old, he’ll have almost 6-years of KHL experience with him, and his trajectory is linked to his comparables in Kirill Kaprizov and Nikita Kucherov.
Kaprizov spent 2 seasons with Novokuznetsk Metallurg before playing 1 season with Ufa Salavat Yulayev and then finishing the final 3 years in the KHL with CSKA Moscow. His final season he scored 33 goals and 62 points in 57 games and then scored 27 goals and 51 points in 55 games for the Minnesota Wild as a rookie. He then scored 47 goals and 108 points in 81 games the following year before scoring 40 goals and 75 points in just 67 games this past season. Kaprizov also scored 9 goals and 12 points in his second stint at the World Juniors and added 5 goals and 9 points in 6 games at the Olympics in 2018.
Kucherov didn’t play long in Russia after being drafted in 2011 and transitioned over to the QMJHL ahead of the 2012-13 season. He joined the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2013-14, adding 9 goals and 18 points in 52 games before setting the scene for what has been a storied career. He has 276 goals and 729 points in 644 games with 53 goals and 160 points in 142 playoff games. He has 3 seasons of over 100 points, 2 seasons with over 80 assists, 2 Stanley Cups, an Art Ross Trophy, Hart Trophy, and Ted Lindsay Award in the same season, all before turning 30.
If Michkov is anything like either one of these players, then whoever drafts him is going to get a really talented youngster. With the KHL experience, coupled with his NHL-ready intangibles it is already hard to imagine anyone not drafting him from the 3rd overall selection onwards.
The Flyers won’t be contending until 2026 and beyond, Michkov won’t be available until then, which could bode well for both parties. San Jose, Montreal, and Arizona sort of seem like they’re in the same boat as well so it will be interesting to see what happens to his draft stock – if anything at all.
Signing long-term with the KHL was one thing, the mysterious happenings and eventual death of his father was extremely troubling, and of course the general landscape that is Russia right now is frightening some NHL general managers.
If he falls to the Flyers at 7, they are going to have to make a franchise-altering decision because he is just that good. Assuming he is available to them, that would mean that Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith are for sure off the table with a good guess of Leonard and Benson following suit. That would leave a decision between Michkov, Dvorksy, Moore, and Reinbacher, and there is a clear-cut winner amongst that group of 4.
At the age of 17, he scored 30 goals and 51 points in 28 games across two teams in the MHL before scoring 2 goals and 5 points in 13 games for St. Petersburg in the KHL. He split time between the KHL, MHL, and VHL this past season where he scored 20 points in 27 games for HK Sochi on loan, 10 goals and 14 points for SKA-Neva St. Petersburg of the VHL, and played in 5 playoff games for Kapitan Stupino on loan in the MHL and added 7 points. Wherever he went in Russia, he scored aplenty and was only 17-18 years old while he was doing it.
There’s some part of you that wants him to be selected within the top-6 just so the Flyers don’t have to make that tough decision and be able to draft Ryan Leonard for example. However there’s another part of you that wants the “Russian Bedard” to fall into your lap and be prime and ready for when your line of contention is supposedly going to start after your rebuild has come to it’s fortunate end.
The Flyers will be drafting a really good forward nonetheless, but if Michkov is everything he’s said to be, then Philadelphia might finally have an elite superstar in the waiting with the biggest caveat of him dropping out of the top-6, let alone the top-4.
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