The Philadelphia Flyers are heading south to face off against the possibly surging Washington Capitals. For a team known for its high-flying offensive play over the past decade and a half, this current iteration of the D.C.-based team plays coherent defense. Peter Laviolette’s club ranks tenth in chance suppression and sixteenth in chance creation. This season is the first time the Capitals have graded out as a top ten team by defensive chance impression since 2016-17.
What hasn’t changed over the past few years, especially since the decline of former netminder Brayden Holtby, the Caps have struggled to find consistent goaltending but scored more goals than you’d expect given the chances they’ve surrendered. These aren’t the same Capitals we’re used to; they’re different now. It might be said that their defense sacrificed offense, but that isn’t entirely the case.
The current Capitals have the second-highest shot quality per game over the past eight seasons. While the goal totals have fallen due to players losing their finishing touch as they age, the team itself has gotten better at driving offense. However, that doesn’t mean that Laviolette and General Manager Brian MacLellan have created a sleeping giant. This Capitals team struggles to get saves. The strengths of the Presidents’ Trophy-winning teams of the 2010s were finishing and goaltending. The finishing faltered but is still generally decent, but the goaltending fell off a cliff.
The turmoil in goal has hurt the Capitals’ chance of competing higher up in the Metropolitan Division. Vitek Vanecek and Ilya Samsonov have not provided the level of security in goal needed to secure home-ice advantage in the playoffs. MacLellan made a decision to not add to his goaltending depth before the trade deadline, and now, they’re stuck with this tandem.
All of this is to say that the Capitals are firmly a playoff team. Their lines have been stuck in a blender all season because of injury and trades. The only players who have been stapled together are Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov. No other duo will play with each other consistently for the remainder of the season because of injuries. Somehow, through all of this instability, the team has stayed competitive; a testament to Laviolette and the Capitals’ defensive play.
Interestingly, the teams’ play driving is from players like Connor McMichael, Daniel Sprong (who’s now gone), T.J. Oshie, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Nick Jensen, Brett Leason, Anthony Mantha, and Dmitry Orlov. These players all have positive shot quality percentages when they’re on the ice. That means they create more dangerous opportunities when they’re on the ice compared to their opponents (stat is generally seen as xGF% – above 50% is what you want). That list doesn’t have any of the superstars, which isn’t too out of the ordinary for the Caps, but it is telling. This team is split in two.
So, let’s look at the matchup:
PHI Record: 22-38-11, 57 pts, 7th in Metropolitan, 21st Goals For Percentage, 28th xGF%
WSH Record: 40-22-10, 90pts, 4th in Metropolitan, 2nd Wild Card, 12th Goals For Percentage, 15th xGF%
When: 7:00PM ET
Where: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
PHI Goalie: Carter Hart (13-23-7, .906 SV%, -5.28 Goals Saved Above Expected)
WSH Goalie: Ilya Samsonov (21-9-4, .899 SV%, -6.08 Goals Saved Above Expected)
Capitals Projected Lines:
#8 Alex Ovechkin – #92 Evgeny Kuznetsov – #21 Connor Sheary (33.67 Goals-For%, 47.76% xGF%)
#90 Marcus Johansson- #19 Nicklas Backstrom – #77 T.J. Oshie (Yet to Play Together)
#39 Anthony Mantha – #20 Lars Eller – #43 Tom Wilson (100 Goals-For%, 86.29 xGF%)
#22 Johan Larsson – #26 Nic Dowd- #21 Garnet Hathaway (0 Goals-For%, 48.89 xGF%)
#42 Martin Fehervary – #74 John Carlson (52.54 Goals-For%, 48.98 xGF%)
#57 Trevor van Riemsdyk – #3 Nick Jensen (45.18 Goals-For%, 53.38 xGF%)
#57 Matt Irwin – #2 Justin Schultz (54.41 Goals-For%, 65.71% xGF%)
Flyers Projected Lines:
#86 Joel Farabee – #13 Kevin Hayes – #89 Cam Atkinson (48.7 Goals-For%, 29 xGF%)
#11 Travis Konecny – #21 Scott Laughton – #74 Owen Tippett (Yet to Play Together)
#25 James van Riemsdyk – #48 Morgan Frost – #46 Bobby Brink (Yet to Play Together)
#49 Noah Cates – #44 Nate Thompson – #38 Patrick Brown (Yet to Play Together)
#9 Ivan Provorov – #6 Travis Sanheim (43.05 Goals-For%, 52.34 xGF%)
#45 Cam York – #70 Rasmus Ristolainen (0 Goals-For, 59.43 xGF%)
#8 Kevin Connauton – #47 Ronnie Attard (100 Goals-For%, 50.49 xGF%)
*only one Flyers line has played more than 35 minutes together
Last Game PHI: 5-3 L vs ANA (4/9)
Last Game WSH: 4-2 W vs BOS (4/10)
Broadcast Info: ESPN, ESPN+, 97.5 The Fanatic
Injuries:
PHI – Ryan Ellis (lower-body), Sean Couturier (back), Nick Seeler (lower-body)
WSH – Carl Hagelin (eye), Joe Snively (wrist)
Data is from Evolving Hockey
