For those eagerly and anxiously awaiting the draft lottery results, you don’t have to wait that much longer. The NHL announced that the draft lottery will take place on the 10th of May in Secaucus, New Jersey at 6:30 PM (ET). On top of the date being announced, let’s also not forget that the NHL has implemented a couple new rules for the lottery as well.
With Seattle’s surprising win on Wednesday over the Colorado Avalanche, they temporarily leapfrogged the Philadelphia Flyers in the standings for the 29th spot before the Flyers won over Montreal last night. With only four games remaining on the schedule, the Flyers currently sit fourth to last with no real chance at dropping any further down than 30th as they’ll likely only go back and forth with Seattle.
The Montreal Canadiens are in 31st place with 51 points and the Arizona Coyotes are in 32nd place with 50 points with the Flyers having eight and nine point advantages, respectively.
Seattle has two games in hand on the Flyers as Philadelphia sits one point ahead of them, and the New Jersey Devils are two points in front of Philadelphia with a game in hand on the Flyers as well. The Flyers finish the season off with games against Pittsburgh, Chicago, Winnipeg, and Ottawa. The Flyers had lost six straight games heading into last night’s tilt against the Canadiens and hold a combined 3-2-2 record against their remaining opponents. But barring an unforeseen hot-streak to end the season the Flyers look entrenched in either the 29th or 30th spot.
What that means in terms of the draft lottery is relatively good news for the Flyers. The NHL is trying to give the lower-ranked teams a better chance at securing better picks by not allowing teams to jump more than 10 spots. A prime example was in 2017 when the Flyers jumped from 13th to 2nd and drafted Nolan Patrick. Out of the 16 non-playoff teams, only the bottom 11 have a chance at securing the first overall pick.
The NHL is also making sure that no team continues to win the lottery by implementing a rule that you can only secure the top pick twice in a five-year span, starting this year. There were murmurs before when the Edmonton Oilers kept drafting first overall so in an attempt to squash that from happening, the NHL is trying to give teams an even playing field.
Finally, only the first two picks will be chosen by the lottery with the remaining picks being sorted out by where you finished in the standings. This was done to ensure that the last place team can draft no worse than 3rd overall.
Finishing last ensures you a 25.2% chance of drafting 1st overall, second last gives you a 12.1% chance, 3rd last is 10.9%, 4th last is 9.7%, 5th last is 8.5%, 6th last is 7.6%, 7th last is 6.7%, 8th last is 5.8%, 9th last is 5.4%, 10th last is 4.5%, and 11th last gives you a 3.1% chance. Being third last ensures the Flyers a 10.9% chance at the first overall pick but also a 10.9% chance at the second overall pick. In a draft that is very top-heavy, the Flyers have ensured themselves a very good prospect, unless they reach unnecessarily.
Shane Wright is the consensus top pick for the upcoming 2022 NHL Draft. The Kingston Frontenacs pivot has 62 assists and 94 points in 63 games this season. If the Flyers can’t snare the first overall pick they still have the opportunity at drafting a really good young player. If they’re looking for a forward they will be able to choose from Slovakian World Junior phenom Juraj Slafkovsky, USDP centre Logan Cooley, Winnipeg Ice centre Matthew Savoie, or even Finnish winger Joakim Kemell. If the Flyers are looking for a really good defenseman, this draft has them in bunches, but in and around the Flyers’ selection would be Slovakian rearguard Simon Nemec and Czech defenseman David Jiricek.
