A rebuild for the Philadelphia Flyers is apparently already in motion, as many media members and team officials will want you to believe.
Giving them the benefit of the doubt, rebuilds look different for each individual and team. The way the Flyers are operating, it’s not the typical teardown, break the foundation, and start from ground zero rebuild that the Chicago Blackhawks, Anaheim Ducks, or Arizona Coyotes are implementing. The Flyers are in the middle somewhere between a rebuild and an aggressive rebuild, seeing what they have at their disposal, while perusing the trade market for their high priced veterans.
Trade rumours have been rampant this season for veterans with term like Kevin Hayes, Ivan Provorov, and even Nick Seeler, while expiring contracts like James van Riemsdyk, Zack MacEwen, and Justin Braun have received their fair share of interest. Rumours haven’t been as red-hot as they were around this time last year, but the same front office has been radio silent for the majority of the season. John Tortorella has taken over the media availability and that was probably by design when they hired him in the summer.
However, it’s hard not to be a little envious with the aforementioned teams who are currently going through a teardown rebuild because at the end of the day, the Flyers and the Blackhawks – for example – aren’t making the playoffs, they’re not contending for the Stanley Cup, and they won’t be good for at least another several years. Yet their modes of operation are completely different.
For starters, the Blackhawks have 2 picks in each of the first 3 rounds of the upcoming 2 drafts (2023 and 2024). They are going to trade Patrick Kane, Jake McCabe, and others for future assets that will be anything from a first round pick to a third round pick – especially with McCabe if they decide to retain salary. On top of the draft capital, they had 3 first rounders last year, will have over $38 million in projected cap space entering the summer, and only have 2 players signed through 2024-25 if McCabe is indeed traded. As things stand today, the Blackhawks have a ridiculous $69.6 million in projected cap space 2 years from now with only Seth Jones and Connor Murphy signed through then, and they could easily trade the latter in that time. And oh yeah, they also have a great chance at drafting Connor Bedard and even if they lose that opportunity, they’ll have a chance with Adam Fantilli or Leo Carlsson.
The Coyotes are another example because they have a combined 17 picks in the first 3 rounds of the upcoming 3 NHL drafts, including 8 second-rounders. They are going to enter the offseason with a shade under $38 million in projected cap space and that number jumps to $60.935 million the following year. That doesn’t equate the impending trade of Jakob Chychrun that will not only alleviate extra cap space but also bring in a haul of first round picks and prospects. Shayne Gostisbehere, Troy Stetcher, Nick Bjugstad, and Nick Ritchie are expiring contracts that should and have generated a lot of interest ahead of trade deadline. Beyond 2024-25 they will be on the hook for only Clayton Keller ($7.15 million AAV through the end of 2027-28), Nick Schmaltz ($5.85 million AAV through the end of 2025-26), Lawson Crouse ($4.3 million AAV through the end of 2026-27), and goaltender Karel Vejmelka ($2.75 million AAV through the end of 2024-25).
Then you have the Ducks, who have a combined 10 picks in the first 3 rounds of the upcoming 2 drafts, including 3 second rounders this year and 2 the following season. They will enter the summer festivities with a shade under $44 million in cap space and that number sky rockets to $65 million the following year. Similar to the Blackhawks and Coyotes, the Ducks only have Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano, Cam Fowler, and John Gibson signed through at least 2024-25. Ahead of the trade deadline they have John Klingberg, Kevin Shattenkirk, Dmitry Kulikov, Nathan Beaulieu, and Anthony Stolarz on expiring UFA contracts that should generate some trade buzz.
Each team has gotten to this point in time in different ways. The Blackhawks were dominant between 2008-09 to 2016-17, winning no less than 44 games in 8 full seasons – they won 36 times in 48 games during the shortened season of 2012-13. They won 3 Cups in that time, lost in the Conference Finals twice, and made the playoffs 9 straight years. Then they struggled mightily, which generally happens when you win cups and have to implode your roster with 2 cornerstones taking up $21 million combined. They got antsy one year and decided to re-tool when they shouldn’t have and traded a haul for Seth Jones, which ended up biting them in the rear. They recouped assets over the years, including 3 first round picks in last year’s draft when they entered the event with 0.
They’ve made some suspect moves perhaps by trading Kirby Dach and Alex DeBrincat or letting Dylan Strome walk, but they quickly realized that their window was completely gone, they had to go through an arduous rebuild, and holding onto young talent like DeBrincat made no sense for their timeline. DeBrincat will require a qualifying offer over $9 million this summer and wants an expensive long-term extension that the Blackhawks wanted no part of. If they could find a taker for Seth Jones right now they would part ways without a second thought, which is the right thought process for a tear-down. The Dach deal was the more puzzling one since he only just turned 22 years old, he’s the prototypical centre that every team looks for in the drafts standing at 6’4”, and the team definitely rushed his development when he didn’t seem NHL-ready right away. On a downtrodden Montreal Canadiens team, he currently has 36 points in 54 games, which shatters his previous career-high. They got a first round pick out of it, which seemed to be their MO during the draft but a move that left many wondering.
The Coyotes rebuild seems never-ending and has stretched 11 seasons after qualifying for the playoffs in 3 consecutive season from 2009-10 to 2011-12, that included a Conference Finals berth. They technically qualified for the COVID-19 playoff bubble but that was due to the fact that 24 teams were deemed playoff-bound. The Coyotes have been acquiring expiring contracts from contending teams for future assets for several seasons (Andrew Ladd, Loui Eriksson/Jay Beagle/Antoine Roussel, Shayne Gostisbehere, Anton Stralman), hoping that all the draft picks they’ve accumulated will reap their rewards. They have a top-10 farm system in the NHL and have several top-end prospects like Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley.
Similar to the Blackhawks, the Ducks enjoyed a lengthy run of success before the fountain of youth dried up and the Ducks became an old and dwindling team of the past. Between 2002-03 to 2017-18, the Ducks qualified for the playoffs in all but 3 seasons, won a Stanley Cup in 2006-07, lost one in 2002-03, lost in 2 Conference Finals, and advanced past the first round another 2 times. Since then it’s been a real dry spell over the last 5 seasons, but in that time they’ve committed to the rebuild and own one of the best farm systems in hockey. Of course as we know, having one of the best farm systems doesn’t mean much when they don’t pan out but it’s still something to hold onto until that point.
All this brings us to Philadelphia, who as we know, will most likely miss the playoffs for the third consecutive season, and have only qualified for the postseason 4 times since 2012-13. This is a team that has refused to rebuild, went halfway under Ron Hextall, and let him go to bring in a more aggressive Chuck Fletcher only for him to waste away almost $35 million in cap space and countless high-end draft picks for overrated, overvalued, and middling players.
Unlike the aforementioned teams, the Flyers only have $8 million in projected cap space for this upcoming summer and $27 million the year after. They have several high-priced, term-lengthy veterans on the roster through 2024-25 and even 2025-26. James van Riemsdyk’s $7 million will come off the books, but that will essentially be replaced by Travis Sanheim’s $6.25 million AAV extension that kickstarts next year all the way until the 2030-31 season.
Kevin Hayes, Scott Laughton, and Nicolas Deslauriers have 3 additional seasons, Travis Konecny, Ivan Provorov. and Cam Atkinson have an additional 2 seasons, Rasmus Ristolainen and (technically) Ryan Ellis have an additional 4 seasons on the books, and Sean Couturier has another 7 years. Not all of these players are bad per se or should be traded, but it’s just a closer look at how the Flyers have mismanaged their timeline, cap space, and future.
Rumours have shown that there is serious interest out there for Hayes and Provorov but when it comes to Hayes, the Flyers have to be willing to retain at least $2 million – something Fletcher apparently doesn’t want to do. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that the Flyers and Provorov have more than likely reached a boiling point and a change of scenery might do him good, which would bring in future assets and prospects if the Flyers play it smart.
Hayes retained at $2 million and Provorov off the books would give the Flyers almost $12 million extra to work with – just food for thought. If teams are interested in your high priced veterans, don’t stand pat because you don’t want to be on the hook for 1-2 million. In the case of Hayes, you’re not giving him up without retention, so would it not be better to be on the hook for $2 million instead of the full $7.142 million, while also recouping better assets because of said retention? This is how you get the actual rebuild rolling, not just trading expiring contracts at the deadline and then trying to jump ship in the summer when you see high priced free agents available.
It’s been reported that the Flyers have had internal discussions regarding Dylan Larkin were he to hit the free agent market. Contract negotiations have hit a snag between player and club and there’s a good chance he could either be moved at the deadline or walk as a free agent. For whatever reasons the Flyers are trying to upgrade at the centre position and believe signing Larkin to a long-term deal is the answer. They also had Bo Horvat on their radar before he was traded to and then signed with the New York Islanders. Larkin is looking for a long term deal in the neighbourhood of $8.5-$9 million; in other words the Flyers are still doing Flyers things, which is probably one of the reasons why they don’t want to retain any part of Hayes’ salary – because they are going to need every penny possible for another kick at the can.
Couturier and Atkinson will most likely return next season which will help the aggressive front office stay at ease. Additionally, Ellis’ career is most likely in jeopardy so his $6.25 million doesn’t really affect the club altogether since they can place him on LTIR. In terms of draft picks, the Flyers have 4 first round picks and third round picks in the next 3 drafts, but no second rounders until 2025.
A full teardown rebuild might not work as we’ve seen with the Coyotes, but it’s a better path than what they’re currently traveling on right now. The Flyers are essentially equal to these basement-dwelling teams and they’ve gone through the same rough patches over the last 3-4 years, but the major differences are that they have a much brighter future in terms of draft capital and projected cap space, which are ultimately the most valuable assets to any team in the salary cap world.
The purgatory-stuck Flyers will remain grounded until they finally realize their MO is flawed, has too many holes to fill in, and the way they’re going they possess a bleak future with the playoffs out of reach for years to come. They’ve tried avoiding the rebuild for years only for them to remain mediocre and have been so out of touch with their fan base and city. It’s a disappointing time in franchise history when you’re losing a battle for 4th place in your own city with an MLS franchise after years upon years of excitement and regular season success.
All of that is in the past, and the Flyers haven’t been fun since the late 2000s and early 2010s with short random spurts here and there in 2017-18 and 2019-20. I would much rather be in the position that the Blackhawks and Ducks find themselves in right now with $40+ million in open cap that then jumps to $65+ million the following season, with the chance to draft Bedard, while also owning several high draft picks for drafts to come.
Either which way, neither of these 4 teams are making the playoffs this season, probably not even next season, and that could stretch further, but the other 3 have cap space, draft capital, and a roster they can gut to ameliorate and fast-track their rebuilds.
All salary cap statistics are courtesy of CapFriendly.com
