A lot has been made of advanced metrics and possession stats in the modern game, and that’s generally how players are ranked or compared. Over the last five seasons, names like Patrice Bergeron, Aleksander Barkov, Ryan O’Reilly, Anze Kopitar, Jonathan Toews, and Sidney Crosby have been mentioned as being the top two-way centers in the game.
Sean Couturier has managed to enter that list over the last few years, especially after coming 2nd in Selke voting in 2017-18 and then winning it all in 2019-20. Even then, his name sometimes didn’t get as much attention as it should have. Another omission to that list is Claude Giroux, a player you might not think about at first but are dumbfounded when you see his consistently high numbers. Where do Giroux and Couturier rank amongst the top two-way centers in the league from 2016-17 to 2020-21.
Advanced stats and metrics are a confusing realm because of all the different numbers, different categories, and how specific some of the categories are. However, what they do show us is how valuable a player is to his team, on and off the ice. The main categories are Corsi, Fenwick, PDO, and zone starts.
Corsi measures all shot attempts like missed shots, blocked shots, and goals directed for and against the player or team per 60 minutes. Fenwick is eerily similar to Corsi minus the blocked shots. PDO is the addition of on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage, where a successful number is over 100. Zone starts are probably the simplest because it just measures how many face-offs in the offensive zone they partake in vs defensive zone face-offs.
The following are advanced metrics from 2016-17 to 2020-21 of some of the best two-way centers in the game, as well as Giroux and Couturier. (Jonathan Toews will only account for four years since he missed all of 2020-21)
Corsi For %: Measures the percentage of total shot attempts by a player’s team when he was on the ice.
Player
2016-17
2017-18
2018-2019
2019-2020
2020-21
Average
Claude Giroux
62.9
59.8
57.2
59.8
59.7
59.88
Sean Couturier
54.1
56.5
55.2
57.9
59.7
56.68
Patrice Bergeron
62.1
58.5
59.4
59.6
63.6
60.64
Aleksander Barkov
60.1
54.7
53
56.8
62.1
57.34
Ryan O’Reilly
50.7
54.9
55
53.1
53.7
53.48
Anze Kopitar
57.4
54.1
49.2
54.5
52.9
53.62
Jonathan Toews
53.8
58.4
53.5
52.6
N/A
54.58
Sidney Crosby
59.1
60.0
57
59.4
57.2
58.54
Corsi For % rel: Measures a player’s Corsi success and compares it to his teammates per 60 minutes. (A positive CF% rel means that when the player is on the ice, the team Corsi as a whole is higher than when he’s off the ice)
Player
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
Average
Claude Giroux
15.2
14
12.7
11.8
10.7
12.88
Sean Couturier
2.1
9.3
9.6
8.9
8.7
7.72
Patrice Bergeron
11.2
8.4
10.7
12
14.2
11.3
Aleksander Barkov
10.5
7.4
3.9
9.9
13.1
8.96
Ryan O’Reilly
5.3
9.6
5.2
3.9
8.2
6.44
Anze Kopitar
3.6
7
1.8
2.3
8
4.54
Jonathan Toews
5.6
8.3
6.3
5.8
N/A
6.5
Sidney Crosby
14.5
14.4
11.9
12.3
10.4
12.7
Fenwick %: Fenwick is similar to Corsi except it doesn’t account for blocked shots. It’s essentially the percentage of total shots on goal and shots missed that were taken by the player’s team when they were on the ice.
Player
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
Average
Claude Giroux
62.6
59.8
57.4
59.2
59.1
59.62
Sean Couturier
54.9
56.7
56.1
56.9
59.3
56.78
Patrice Bergeron
62.9
57.4
59.4
59.4
64.8
60.78
Aleksander Barkov
58.7
54.9
52.7
55.7
61.7
56.74
Ryan O’Reilly
50.1
55
55.5
52.5
53.6
53.34
Anze Kopitar
56.7
54.3
48.3
54.1
51.9
53.06
Jonathan Toews
52.2
55.1
51.9
51.6
N/A
52.7
Sidney Crosby
59.1
62.3
56.9
59.3
56.2
58.76
Fenwick % rel: Measurement of a player’s Fenwick relative to his own teammates per 60 minutes.
Player
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
Average
Claude Giroux
14.8
13.4
12.4
11
10.2
12.36
Sean Couturier
2.3
8.8
10.5
7.6
9.1
7.66
Patrice Bergeron
11.6
6.6
10.3
11.4
14.7
10.92
Aleksander Barkov
9.3
7
2.6
7.9
12.4
7.84
Ryan O’Reilly
4.5
9.8
5.3
3.3
8.6
6.3
Anze Kopitar
2.8
7.2
1.2
2.2
6.7
4.02
Jonathan Toews
3.6
6.1
5.7
5
N/A
5.1
Sidney Crosby
13.1
15.6
11.3
11.7
8.9
12.12
PDO: Is the addition of on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage (of it’s own team). The number should trend towards 100%
Player
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
Average
Claude Giroux
98.8
103.2
100.5
100.7
97.3
100.1
Sean Couturier
98.8
101.8
98.7
101.5
95.8
99.32
Patrice Bergeron
99.7
104.2
104.2
104.3
100
102.48
Aleksander Barkov
101.2
101.4
100.7
101.9
98.3
100.7
Ryan O’Reilly
101.4
97.6
102.3
101.7
101.9
100.98
Anze Kopitar
98
102.4
98.3
99.5
99.5
99.54
Jonathan Toews
100.9
98.5
100.3
101.1
N/A
100.2
Sidney Crosby
103
100.7
102.4
98.6
103.9
101.72
Defensive Zone Face-Off Starts
Player
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
Average
Claude Giroux
33.6
44.9
43.6
50.5
47.1
43.94
Sean Couturier
58
51.7
51.1
48.5
50.4
51.94
Patrice Bergeron
45.6
41.7
40.9
37.9
43.1
41.84
Aleksander Barkov
37.3
53.4
50.3
36.9
40.1
43.6
Ryan O’Reilly
54.5
51.3
49.7
50.4
52.7
51.72
Anze Kopitar
46.4
50.6
55.2
47.7
49.3
49.84
Jonathan Toews
44.6
42.8
43.9
45.2
N/A
44.13
Sidney Crosby
30.4
33.7
35
29.8
33.5
32.48
Offensive Zone Face-Off Starts
Player
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
Average
Claude Giroux
66.4
55.1
56.4
49.5
52.9
56.06
Sean Couturier
42
48.3
48.9
51.5
49.6
48.06
Patrice Bergeron
54.4
58.3
59.1
62.1
56.9
58.16
Aleksander Barkov
62.7
46.6
49.7
63.1
59.9
56.4
Ryan O’Reilly
45.5
48.7
50.3
49.6
47.3
48.28
Anze Kopitar
53.6
49.4
44.8
52.3
50.7
50.16
Jonathan Toews
55.4
57.2
56.1
54.8
N/A
55.87
Sidney Crosby
69.6
66.3
65
70.2
66.5
67.52
After tabulating all these numbers, analyzing the stats, and comparing each and every player, the common theme is that all 8 players are great two-way centers, who are incredibly valuable and impactful for their respective clubs. The two categories that stand out the most are defensive/offensive zone starts and PDO.
Defensive/Offensive zone starts show you exactly how valuable and dependable the players are. Even before 2016-17, Sean Couturier was starting a vast majority of his shifts in the defensive zone. His advanced metrics are down compared to some of the players who started in the offensive zone more often (Bergeron, Crosby, Barkov), but his average numbers are still very high, impressive, and comparable.
Because you’re starting in the defensive zone, you’re bound to give up more shots against than generate shots on goal. Your goalie’s save percentage will tend to be lower because of this, which will drop the PDO. The PDO is an interesting category here because it’s dependent on your team’s goaltending as well. No surprise that the two Flyers’ players are at the bottom of the table because of how bad the goaltending and defense have been.
It’s not shocking at all that when the Flyers made the playoffs (2017-18 and 2019-20) that their PDOs were above 100. It’s a great category because I think it illustrates the importance of the player himself in contrast to the rest of the team and the team’s flaws. Giroux and Couturier are able to accumulate a PDO of (close to) 100 on a consistent basis, even if the goaltending is sub-optimal.
These numbers should show you that Claude Giroux is severely underrated. If individual stats aren’t enough to show you his impact, his value, and the team’s dependency on the player, then that’s why we have advanced metrics. Giroux has consistently been toe-to-toe with Patrice Bergeron, who is arguably the league’s best two-way forward, for the last five years. Even though a majority of his shifts took place in the offensive zone in the earlier years, he’s been playing a lot more in the defensive zone lately and still putting up consistently high numbers.
As for Couturier, we already know we have one of the best two-way centers in the game. He might not get the same recognition as Bergeron, O’Reilly, and Kopitar, but when you compare the advanced metrics, you can see he belongs there and then some. For most of his career, he was a defensive dynamo, who only played in his own zone and that’s why his metrics were so low for so long. However, since breaking out with an offensive game as stout as his defensive game, his numbers have sky-rocketed into the upper echelon and he was rewarded with the Selke in 2019-20 for his efforts.
It’s important to note that some of Giroux and Couturier’s numbers might overlap or cancel each other (primarily zone starts). Since 2017-18, the Flyers have operated a top line that consists of both Couturier and Giroux. However, the years before 2017-18, they were always separated, to a point where Couturier was mainly used for defensive purposes only (i.e 2016-17).
For the last five seasons, we’ve picked apart Giroux’s game and impact on and off the ice, especially in the last few years. His advanced metrics show a completely different side to the story because he is producing at the same level as players like Sidney Crosby and Patrice Bergeron. He deserves to have his name mentioned in the same breath, but I also want to be clear in saying that I am not saying he is equal to or better than either player. Only pointing out that his advanced metrics are equal to or better than the aforementioned players.
Couturier is finally getting the recognition and draw he has always deserved. He languished in the bottom six for too many years but now that he’s developed an offensive game to match his defensive prowess. Over the next five years, we’ll be hearing his name a lot more, especially when it comes to the Selke trophy.
In conclusion, the Flyers have had two of the best two-way centers in the game for the last five seasons but have nothing to show for it. Lack of depth, star talent, and goaltending has led to their downfall, despite having two players consistently showing up on a game-by-game and year-by-year basis.
