The title is a tough question to answer because the rebuild is still in its infancy, but it’s certainly something to ponder as the Philadelphia Flyers are a month away from kicking off their 2024-25 campaign.
Decade and a Half of Mediocrity, Failure, and Inconsistencies
The cracks in confidence can be dated back to Bobby Clarke but for the modern team it started to form around 2010-onwards, which would be best described as Paul Holmgren’s “Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde” tenure.
It started off fantastically with the trade deadline acquisitions of Braydon Coburn, Scottie Upshall, and Martin Biron, flipping a first round pick for the signing rights to both Kimmo Timonen and Scott Hartnell, and then signing the big-fish in the free agent market that season in Daniel Brière, which laid the foundation perfectly during the first half of his tenure.
After coming so close to winning it all in the summer of 2010, the Flyers almost became desperate in their methods of execution but also faced some horrid luck along the way, especially the career-ending injury to Chris Pronger after hitching their wagon completely on that horse. Ilya Bryzgalov’s signing was a massive failure almost from the on-set, they didn’t want to promise Jaromír Jágr an extended role despite how he shaped the team – even in his old(er) age – and they were unable to net Shea Weber with their offer sheet, which might have been a godsend instead of being labeled as a failure depending on your point of view of how that would have shaped the Flyers for years to come.
However, since then, the Flyers have gone through 4 general managers, 7 head coaches, and a myriad of pathways that they believed would lead them to success.
Holmgren was as aggressive as one could be but due to his tarnished reputation after the offer sheet debacle, it was time to move in a different direction. Ron Hextall came in his stead and was able to repair the damaged relationships from the past, as well as stick to a plan that we all believed at the time was as good as gold. Unfortunately, the prospects never really panned out and perhaps keeping Claude Giroux and Jakub Voráček through it all were bad decisions in hindsight.
The Hextall tenure came to a crashing halt after he butted heads with upper management. They decided enough was enough and replaced him with the ultra-aggressive Chuck Fletcher, who they had hoped would be able to make shrewd moves on the trade front and free agent market to get this team back on a roll. His first order of business was handling around $35 million in projected cap space to acquire a top-flight defenseman, a top-6 centre, and extend their two budding stars in Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny.
To his credit, the acquisitions of Kevin Hayes, Matt Niskanen, and Justin Braun looked to have worked like gangbusters on top of his trade deadline depth acquisitions of Nate Thompson and Derek Grant in 2020. Unfortunately for Fletcher, the COVID-19 pause on the regular season completely changed the course of his tenure as the Flyers were never able to pick up where they left off, largely in part of Alain Vigneault completely throwing out the playbook once the first round of the playoff bubble commenced against Montréal.
Niskanen suddenly retired and was never truly replaced, Hayes could not replicate his 2019-20 season and dealt with a litany of injuries, Nolan Patrick’s career never took off, Oskar Lindblom had a tough time coming back from cancer, and some of the core players butted heads with the head coach which ultimately led to their rapid departures.
Fletcher’s changes from that summer didn’t work out any better either as Rasmus Ristolainen cost an arm and a leg to acquire and then signed an albatross contract all the while dealing with injuries every year. Cam Atkinson missed an entire season before returning like a shell of his former self, Ryan Ellis played just 4 games as a member of the Flyers, and due to their shortcomings it forced them move on from Claude Giroux.
Under Fletcher, the Flyers looked horrendous on the ice and when you thought that it couldn’t get any worse the following season, it somehow managed to come to fruition. His final play was being unable to move James van Riemsdyk in a buyer’s market when a plethora of teams were dishing out mid-round picks for just about anyone that was available. Fletcher urged the world that trades were difficult to make, there was no market for van Riemsdyk, and that he had to tell his fellow counterparts that he was willing to eat half his remaining salary – as if that wasn’t already known?
Hope for the Future?
No one bit, van Riemsdyk remained a Flyer despite both sides wanting him to be able to chase a ring that year, and after being heckled mercilessly at a town hall meeting, upper management had to step in and relieve him of his duties as both President of Hockey Operations and General Manager. The fans were calling for his head and wanted Assistant General Manager at the time, Daniel Brière, to take over, which ultimately happened after his interim tag was removed that summer.
Flyers Governor Dan Hilferty understood what was at stake and he has been as hands-on and present as anyone in the Flyers organization since he’s taken over. Keith Jones was hired as the President of Hockey Operations in a shock move but his presence, good communication skills, and jovial personalty and reputation has helped in some sense, and although Brière is new to the job he has made some good moves in the early going but there are pressing issues currently at hand despite the club supposedly undergoing a rebuild.
The rhetoric on Brière has changed almost overnight and a big part of that is based on how they’ve handled the Cutter Gauthier and Alexei Kolosov sagas as well as their stop-and-go or “laissez-faire” rebuilding attempts.
What Are Some of Their Options?
Trying to define a rebuild is extremely difficult because there are many ways you can go about it but here are some of the more “popular” avenues:
1) Tear everything down like Chicago, tank for 2+ seasons but ensure a top-3 pick, and then accrue anywhere between $35M-$45M in projected cap space when you’re ready to compete with some of your elite prospects already making their mark in the NHL.
2) You aggressively rebuild on the fly, take advantage of some contending teams being unable to keep their young stars or promise them an NHL spot like Rutger McGroarty, and try to gather as many top flight prospects as you can to compete within 1-3 years.
3) Stand pat with what you have, try to wait it out for a season or two, and then try to make a stand once you have open cap space to build upon.
Chicago and San Jose are two teams that have rebuilt their clubs overnight due to their opportunity to draft generational young talents in Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini. The Blackhawks traded pretty much everyone not named Seth Jones a few years ago and laid down the foundation for 2024 and beyond with ample cap space to build around their young stars – which they are currently doing.
The Sharks were in a more difficult situation because they had albatross contracts to older players that made it difficult to move but they found suitors for Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson, and Tomáš Hertl but having to retain salary. They knew they could afford it with 2-3 seasons of tanking coming their way and with Celebrini and Sam Dickinson being drafted this year, Will Smith the year before, William Eklund a few years back, and now with adding Yaroslav Askarov to the mix, they’re in for a fun ride.
Then you have the short-lived rebuild for the New York Rangers, who were able to land Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafrenière in back-to-back drafts that allowed them to expedite their process and sign Artemi Panarin through free agency. The emergences of Igor Shesterkin, Mika Zibanejad, and Adam Fox pushed the Rangers over the top once Panarin came around, and let’s also not forget their underrated signing of Vincent Trocheck a few years back and Chris Kreider potting 30+ goals a season.
Then you have a team like the New Jersey Devils who have taken a longer approach despite winning a few lotteries – or at least moving up in some of them – as well as being bad enough to earn their way to a top-10 pick in other drafts.
They won the race to Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes, they were able to draft Šimon Nemec with the 2nd overall pick in 2022, and were lucky enough for Anton Silayev to fall into their laps at 10th in 2024. Those prospects on top of Luke Hughes, Dawson Mercer, and Jesper Bratt as well as the free agent signing of Dougie Hamilton and the acquisitions of Timo Meier and Jacob Markström should end their spell of having missed the postseason in 10 of their last 12 seasons if they can avoid the injury bug.
What Is Their Current Path?
So where do the Flyers fit into this equation? Well, they’re not operating like Chicago or San Jose, otherwise they would have moved Travis Sanheim, Travis Konecny, and Scott Laughton when the iron was scalding hot. They aren’t operating like the Rangers because they weren’t fortunate enough to win lotteries or have the money to be big spenders on the open market. Which then leaves us with the Devils’ approach, but once again, they haven’t been lucky enough in lotteries and it doesn’t help that the new lottery system isn’t going to reward a team that finishes in the 10-14 slots anymore.
Dating back to 2016, the Flyers have drafted within the top-10 only three times but two of those picks never panned out for their own reasons in Nolan Patrick and Cutter Gauthier. They drafted German Rubtsov with the 22nd overall pick in 2o16, Morgan Frost with the 27th pick in 2017, Joel Farabee and Jay O’Brien with the 14th and 19th overall picks in 2018, Cam York with the 14th overall pick in 2019, Tyson Foerster with the 23rd overall pick in 2020, Matvei Michkov and Oliver Bonk with the 7th and 22nd overall picks in 2023, and recently taking Jett Luchanko with the 13th overall pick in 2024.
It’s really hard for a team that doesn’t already have an established core to be successful through the drafts with picks outside the top-10 unless they can find home runs every single year. The jury is still out on Frost and Farabee, York looks like the real deal and is expected to take on a larger role in 2024-25, Foerster had a good rookie season but will need to improve in his sophomore year, and of course there’s Michkov who is expected to debut this year.
While other prospects like Bobby Brink, Denver Barkey, Samu Tuomaala, and Emil Andrae bring about some excitement, it’s not nearly enough to change the fortunes of their present and future.
Losing out on Gauthier was a tough pill to swallow, especially when he could have been making his debut this season alongside Michkov, but the relationship was ruptured and irreparable. It forced them to move Gauthier for Jamie Drysdale, who is still extremely young but needs to put his stamp on his career as soon as possible.
What They Can Learn From Other Teams (and themselves)
So, as we enter the 2024-25 season, the hope for the present and the future – in regards to their rebuilding plans – is that they can take a little bit out of different rebuilds. Move the necessary pieces that will net you prospects and picks as well as freeing up much needed cap space, position yourself to succeed during the on-set of Michkov’s tenure, and be as aggressive as possible when young stars are available or on the block.
Yes, it’s nice to have prospects and a deep pipeline but you’re essentially redoing the mistakes of yesteryear’s past if you hold onto them like they’re crown jewels.
Martin Nečas, Rutger McGroarty, and Yaroslav Askarov are a few names that were available on the open market this year and while there a few reasons as to why the Flyers probably didn’t pry, it’s moves like that that will expedite their plans.
McGroarty, for instance, would have been a tough sell considering the Gauthier debacle, Askarov would have cost them a lot and they might not have had an open spot on the NHL roster for him at the moment, and Nečas’ asking price was reportedly sky-high since he was still an RFA.
They won’t be the only ones that become available from here on out and if the Flyers can strike by adding NHL-ready youngsters in exchange for picks and prospects, they should certainly be as aggressive as possible. I’m not saying to dump everything for a Mitch Marner but a younger player similar to McGroarty or Askarov could change their fortunes on a dime.
I look at teams like Buffalo and Detroit who have done most of their rebuilding through the draft and how it hasn’t yielded the results they were expecting. The “Yzerplan” reminds me a lot of Hextall’s tenure where he took over an old-head who was driving the team into the ground, promised change but urged for patience in the 4-5 year realm, stockpiled picks and prospects to a point where you’re ranked in the top-3 or top-5 of every list that ranks future pipelines, but over time the prospects don’t pan out and the results remain the same, where you’re not bad enough to draft super high and you’re not good enough to make the playoffs – or go deep if you make it.
Buffalo is another club that has been trying to not only rebuild – with great draft position on a yearly basis – but make splashes of their own, unfortunately they haven’t come close and are still looking for their first playoff berth since 2010-11. Similarly to Detroit, the Sabres have had a strong pipeline for years and that’s been aided by the fact that they’ve drafted very high in recent drafts. Between 2015 and 2022, the Sabres had 8 consecutive first-rounders within the top-9, including the first overall pick twice and the second overall pick once, and half of them have been traded including Jack Eichel and Casey Mittelstadt.
Buffalo had a massive turnaround a couple years ago when Tage Thompson erupted with the help of Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch but have since fallen off again. They are hoping that their young core of Thompson, Dahlin, Power, J.J. Peterka, Peyton Krebs, Jack Quinn, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen can step up this year and turn around their miserable fortunes. However, despite their constant rebuilding, both Buffalo and Detroit aren’t largely expected to be anything better than contending for the second Wild Card spot in the East this season.
Outlook For 2024-25 and Beyond
The Flyers look poised for another repeat of last season, where they weren’t bad enough to land a top-3 pick but also not good enough to make the postseason or go on a deep run had they not collapsed. John Tortorella will coach this team like he always does and that means the Flyers will be a team that’s hard to play against, will surely surprise at the beginning of the season, and will push for a postseason berth.
Whether they make it or not is irrelevant to the rebuilding process because they won’t be as bad as Anaheim, San Jose, or Columbus regardless of what happens. However, for those clamouring for a top-3 or top-5 pick, they will need injuries to plague them similarly to their 2022-23 season and perhaps the goaltending or defense not being able to hold the fort. Otherwise, we’re looking at another year of a mid-round pick, which isn’t exactly what you’re looking for in a rebuild.
The summer of 2025 is perhaps when the Flyers are expecting to finally take a step forward. Not only will be they be one year deep in Michkov’s tenure, but they have the luxury of owning 3 first and second round picks in the upcoming draft, so perhaps that’s when Brière and company will finally strike with an aggressive move or two.
Despite the salary cap expected to increase to 92 million dollars, the $4 million jump will help the Flyers in their efforts to extend their RFAs but that’s about it. With roughly $18 million in projected cap space, most if not all of it will be used keep York, Foerster, Frost, and Noah Cates. They could finally look to move Frost in a “hockey-deal”, Farabee has been on the chopping block for a few years, and they could look to finally unload Ristolainen’s contract – but it will be necessary and required should they look to upgrade their roster.
The free agent market is littered with high valued names but a lot of them will extend with their current clubs or price themselves out of Philadelphia’s grasp. Meaning the trade market is where they will have to do a lot of their bidding.
The rebuild is going to be a wait-and-see approach whereas the 2024-25 season is going to be one that brings about a lot of debates and arguments because they’re positioned right in the middle between full rebuild and trying to make the playoffs and they’re not necessarily moving towards either side right now.
Another thing to ponder is if they finally move on from Scott Laughton. After years of rumours and trade offers, this is the final year where the Flyers can hold as much leverage as possible in regards to his term. The good thing is that Laughton will always hold trade value whether you trade him this year or the next but the package would be a lot more promising if you’re trading him with 2 years of term instead of an expiring contract.
That is a move most rebuilding clubs would have already made by now and teams like Chicago or San Jose probably wouldn’t have extended Konecny to an 8-year deal either. However, the Flyers are operating differently and are putting a lot of eggs in their young core’s basket with the hope that they can turn it around on their own and sooner than anticipated. Michkov’s arrival will help but by how much?
On the bright side, we get to watch the Russian phenom take the ice soon for exhibition games and within a month’s time for his regular season debut. The Flyers do have good young talent on the NHL roster as we speak but they’re going to need a Herculean effort from almost all of them to set aside the disdain that many currently hold towards the lack of skill argument and the attempted rebuilding process.
