With Carter Hart implanted as the starting goalie ahead of the 2019-20 season, the Philadelphia Flyers believed they finally solved their goaltending carousel, this coming off the season that involved 8 goaltenders.
Hart made his debut on the 18th of December, 2018, and almost completely stole the show in goal. There was enough confidence and stability that he showed where the Flyers were comfortable moving forward with the young “phenom”. All the Flyers needed to do was find him a capable backup goalie and shore up their defense.
For one reason or another, the Flyers never found a capable backup, nor were they ever able to field a stabilized defense. Chuck Fletcher had his vision, he went after the guys he wanted, he acquired them, and they never panned out. The coaching was a mess, the offense was sputtering, the injuries were piling up, but the general feel was that at least the Flyers had Hart. 2020-21 could’ve been seen as the anomaly of his first 3 seasons but he didn’t have a strong 2021-22 to back that up. So now you’re looking at 2 great seasons versus 2 horrible seasons.
2022-23 was a mix of both, because he had his moments where he stole the show, especially at the beginning of the season. He’s not capable, nor should be forced to steal every single game, however he wasn’t as bad as his standard numbers might suggest. A lot of the analytics had him in the top-10 or top-15 of qualified goaltenders in the NHL. There’s only so much you can do with a defense that really only had 1 good performer. He definitely bounced back from his previous 2 seasons, but unfortunately the Flyers kept sinking further and further.
Now we’re at a head and with a new contract looming – albeit as an RFA – the Flyers have a very tough decision to make. It’s not as simple as it may seem because you are moving on from a young goaltender who has proven he is capable of manning the crease for 55-60 games.
Hart’s playoff performance in 2020 was sublime and it just goes to show that a good defense makes way for good goaltending and vice versa. At 24 years of age (turning 25 in August), with a cheap cap hit of $3.979 million, one year left but still an RFA, and a plethora of teams needing and wanting a goaltender as their final piece of the puzzle, the Flyers are inclined to make the move.
They can very well keep him around, sign him to a short-term deal that will lead into their line of contention, and make a decision then. If they’re still out of the picture, then you can still recoup big assets for a 27 or 28-year-old netminder. The problem with him staying on the team is that it truly hampers their ability to rebuild or tank – so to speak. It’s no secret that you need top-end draft picks to make headway in a rebuild. You can’t bank on picks 8-12 to turn into studs that can turn things around. Hart’s goaltending will steal plenty of games, will give the Flyers unnecessary points in the standings, and keep them further away from the basement, which is a place they might need to be in for a couple of years.
This is also a prime time for the younger goaltenders to get a fair share of games under their belt. Samuel Ersson’s NHL season could’ve been longer, but his waiver exemption made him a prime candidate to return to Lehigh Valley. He did well in his first stint, struggled a little at the end of the season, but overall he showed a lot of poise and control in the crease.
Felix Sandström is an interesting one because he has had very little goal support throughout his young career, but he also hasn’t shined either. There’s a fine line with his performances, where some of the blame goes to the defense in front of him, but then some of it has to be relayed back to him with the kinds of goals he’s given up. He’s still also very young, the pressure was probably mounting when he had yet to record a victory, and puck luck sometimes wasn’t his friend.
In saying that, what is the plan in goal if and when the Flyers move on from Carter Hart? The team that acquires him isn’t going to send a comparable goaltender in return, unless it’s the Toronto Maple Leafs and Joseph Woll. Ottawa, Edmonton, Detroit, and Buffalo could be teams interested, but you’re also looking for the best package in totality.
The Flyers already took on Cal Petersen and his $5 million AAV for 2 years from the Los Angeles Kings to facilitate the best possible deal involving Ivan Provorov. The Flyers took back equal salary in the deal, which would make it somewhat difficult to imagine they take on a contract like Jack Campbell from the Edmonton Oilers – who would be looking to get out of that contract as soon as possible.
Trades for young goaltenders don’t come by very often, but it is already very clear that Daniel Briere and company want draft picks – and high ones at that. Trading Hart will require any team interested to pay a very pretty penny and the higher the draft pick, the better – similar to when Fletcher “won” the Rasmus Ristolainen sweepstakes because he swooped in at the 11th hour and offered the better first round pick.
Brière already made mention about the idea of giving Petersen a fair shot in training camp. If he does remain in the organization, he seems likely destined for the AHL where he has had more success in his career. His term is a little more concerning than his cap hit, but with possible trades involving Kevin Hayes and maybe Tony DeAngelo, it won’t be as big of a concern for the time being.
Are Ersson and Sandström ready for tandem duties? The free agent class of 2023 doesn’t bode well for talented goaltenders or backups and the Flyers have never been able to find the right one either. Ray Emery and Martin Jones never really panned out, and Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth had their moments in the sun but were sometimes as problematic as the aforementioned Emery and Jones.
There would definitely be a lineup of teams trying to break down the door to get him and it seems like the contingency plan in the aftermath of a Hart trade is relying on Samuel Ersson. Ersson played very well in his first stint with the club as he started his career 6-0-0 in 9 games. He was pulled in his first career start and he played in relief of Hart twice, which explains his .913 SV%. In his 6 wins he posted a .938 SV% and a 1.83 GAA with 1 shutout. He ended up losing his final 3 games of the season, 7-0 against the New Jersey Devils, 4-2 against the Pittsburgh Penguins, and 4-2 against the St. Louis Blues. On the season he finished with a 6-3-0 record, an .899 SV%, and 3.07 GAA.
He brought about a tranquil, calming, and cool feeling in the crease compared to Sandström, and at times Hart. The book was not out on the young goaltender and that was partially why he excelled to begin his career. He looked a little less tranquil, calm, and cool in his final 3 games, but that’s not to take away what he did earlier. The Flyers are happy with how he played, he is expected to battle for the backup spot in training camp, and it seems to be his job to lose.
In saying that, a lot of people were ready to crown Ersson as the number one goaltender and move on from Hart. While I understand the sentiment because Ersson brought a different feel to the crease – at least in contrast to Sandström – let’s also not forget what Hart did in his first season that made us think the same exact way about him. In his first 12 games, he was 6-5-1 with a .918 SV% and a 2.50 GAA. In his first 20 games he was 13-6-1 with a .924 SV% and a 2.45 GAA. He stumbled a little near the end but still posted a .917 SV% and a 2.83 GAA with a 16-13-1 record. He only got better the next season before the wheels came off in 2020-21 and 2021-22, which is when the gloss started to fade a little for a large faction of the fan base.
Before Tuesday, it seemed that Ersson’s only obstacle ahead of the 2023-24 season for the backup position would’ve been Sandström, however after the tweets that came out shortly after the Provorov deal, it almost feels like a guarantee that Hart gets moved now. The Provorov rumours were out there for years but the only reason nothing materialized sooner was because Fletcher had very cold feet when it came to pulling the trigger. Otherwise, Provorov would’ve been moved years ago, at the very least for Patrik Laine.
Brière and company have a plan in motion, and they don’t seem like the kind of people to back track, partially because they saw what their predecessors did first-hand and are sure to want to avoid making the same mistakes that irritated the fan base to no end.
It sounds as if Petersen will have his chance, but he’s kind of a bag of mixed tricks. He excelled at Notre Dame from 2014-15 to 2016-17 where he posted save percentages of .919, .927, and. 926 with GAAs of 2.51, 2.20, and 2.22, respectively. He showed some promise in the AHL before making the leap to the NHL with the Kings. In his first 54 NHL games across 3 seasons, he posted a 19-25-6 record but a .916 SV% and a 2.79 GAA for some pretty bad Kings’ teams. He was given a 3-year contract with a $5 million AAV after his 2020-21 performance where he went 9-18-5 with a .911 SV% and a 2.89 GAA. It was believed that his 3 seasons in totality earned him that contract.
He sputtered in 2021-22 and 2022-23 where in a combined 47 games he posted a 3.07 GAA and an .890 SV% but had a winning record of 25-17-4. The Kings had turned things around as a team, but the goaltending was becoming a weak point and Petersen found himself back in the AHL. With the Ontario Reign this past season, he went 16-20-4 with a .904 SV% and a 2.88 GAA. He’s still only 28-years-old and he has shown flashes on some pretty bad teams, so perhaps a change of scenery is necessary for a turnaround, which is definitely not the first time that’s happened – Sergei Bobrovsky and Steve Mason come to mind.
Ivan Fedotov has reportedly completed his military service in Russia after being detained last summer for trying to evade military conscription. It was reported earlier in the offseason from the President of CSKA Moscow that he expects Fedotov to remain in Russia. With his service completed and his one-year ELC with the Flyers off the books, he is scheduled to become an RFA at the NHL-level, but mum’s the word on whether or not he will be flying over the pond. If he is able to report back to the Flyers, then that would only give Briere more ammunition in terms of his available goaltenders and leverage for a Hart trade. However, it’s a little tricky to try to even guess or assume what his next steps are due to the political climate but in the grand scheme of things, his 1-year of military service has been completed – so that’s something to keep an eye on this summer.
So as we stand right now, Hart is the number one, Ersson should be the number two, Sandström is number three, and Petersen is number four. It seems very unlikely that the Flyers dip their toes in free agent waters to try and lure a veteran backup goaltender. Both Ersson and Sandström boast NHL experience and unless they find a way to alleviate themselves of Petersen, it just wouldn’t make much sense.
The package involving Hart is going to be big and that can’t be understated enough. The idea is thinking about 2025-26, 2026-27, 2027-28, and beyond and it seems like they don’t think there’s much sense in keeping Hart around until then. John Gibson is a prime example of keeping a good goaltender on a bad team, and it looks like he’s finally had enough of the losing in Anaheim. The Flyers don’t need to take it to that point with Hart and capitalizing on the market right now when it’s white-hot is probably the best move for the present and future.
Whoever they roll with next season is going to have to deal with the brunt of being a starting goaltender in Philadelphia – with another makeshift defense – however the experience is what will do wonders for them and they’re extremely confident in both.
Alexei Kolosov is marinating in the KHL for the time being, so it seems to be Ersson’s net to lose if and when the Flyers make a trade involving Carter Hart.
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