Whenever it’s announced that the Philadelphia Flyers are going to make wholesale changes or move around player personnel, one of the first names that always come to the forefront is that of Ivan Provorov.
The former 7th overall selection from the vaunted 2015 NHL Entry Draft has enjoyed a cushy seat on the trade block for what will be his 3rd consecutive season. Former General Manager and President of Hockey Operations, Chuck Fletcher, insinuated big changes were coming at the end of the 2020-21 season, again at the end of 2021-22, and no one knew what was on his mind heading into the trade deadline this past season except for the fact that Provorov was available for the “right price”.
Based on how things went down, it seemed like the Flyers were going to give Fletcher until the end of the season, where he would’ve been let go in the offseason and essentially having Daniel Brière in a transitional period from some point midseason into the summer.
Many wondered why the Flyers gave Fletcher the trade deadline if he was going to be let go regardless. The simple answer was that all he had to do was get rid of the expiring contracts for future picks and then walk off into the sunset. However, he was unable to trade his biggest bargaining chip in James van Riemsdyk, announced to the world he had no trade value even though lesser players were being moved for a premium price, and also held onto Justin Braun – who was skating in his final season.
Kevin Hayes, Travis Konecny, and Ivan Provorov returned to the chopping block ahead of the trade deadline as well, but most pundits and insiders mentioned that trades of those caliber are much easier facilitated in the off-season where the salary cap restrictions are a bit looser. At one point during the season, it almost seemed like a foregone conclusion that Provorov’s Flyers tenure was going to end without a shadow of a doubt. However, as the season was winding down, he played a much better brand of hockey and most importantly enamoured himself with John Tortorella – who is going to have some sway in the roster moves.
He has mentioned the word subtraction quite a bit as the Flyers will look to shed contracts and get rid of the undesirables – in the eyes of both the head coach and general manager. As for who they are, some are more obvious than others. Based on their end-of-season comments, Kevin Hayes has probably played his final game in the Orange and Black, the jury is out on Tony DeAngelo, who has 1 year remaining on his contract but being a healthy scratch in the final 5 games of the season doesn’t bode well for his chances, and of course James van Riemsdyk will walk into unrestricted free agency.
Based on the verbiage that has been thrown around since the trade deadline, we are to believe that the Flyers will finally undertake a rebuild. Daniel Brière has intimated that he doesn’t want to go into this like a bull in a china shop and tear everything down, as he is looking for a more patient approach. However, the worst kept secret is that players like Provorov and Konecny have received trade interest over the years and it’s only going to get louder as both players have what most general managers lose their mind for – term. Both players have 2 years remaining until they hit unrestricted free agency and their cap hits are very reasonable.
Many who have been screaming for a rebuild over the last few years have mentioned that trading Provorov and Konecny makes sense right now. Based on their current trajectory, how long it will take to become contenders again, and based on their contracts, trading them right now would yield a premium haul – the best they’d ever get. If it is to be actually believed – and I have no reason to doubt it, based on how Tortorella ended his season in the press box – Konecny seems like a lock to remain with the team. Tortorella loved his season, his game, his tenacity, and his effort from start to finish and I can’t see them parting ways unless they want to decide to make a U-turn and tear things apart from the seams.
Trading Hayes isn’t as far-fetched as some believe it to be, there are many suitors, and as long as the Flyers are okay with retaining somewhere above $2 million for the next 3 years, they will be rid of his contract and that would – most importantly – open up a spot in the top-6 for the prospects they desperately want to use.
DeAngelo only has 1 year remaining on his contract and if he isn’t moved in the summer, he is a prime trade deadline candidate. However, there are several teams that would be interested in the offensive defenseman for just one season. Finally with van Riemsdyk out of the picture, that opens up 3 vital spots in the lineup.
The biggest reason for trading Provorov right now is that you can’t trade Travis Sanheim with his 8-year contract extension kicking in next season and I can’t imagine Rasmus Ristolainen will be dealt with 4 years still remaining on his deal. However, on the flip side of that coin, you’re left with a lot of mid-level defensemen if Provorov were to be dealt for future pieces.
Since Brière won’t tear things down fully this summer, the Flyers will also never tank purposely with Tortorella behind the bench, and with the impending returns of Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson – who are both currently healthy and pain-free – what’s the timeline of contention?
Similarly to Sanheim and Ristolainen, Couturier and Atkinson both seem un-tradable with their contracts, cap hit, and both players are coming back from serious injuries. We also can’t forget that these 2 players in particular are born and bred for Tortorella’s system with the latter having career seasons in Columbus with Tortorella behind the bench. If they were somehow traded or even tradable, then I can see the reasoning behind letting both Konecny and Provorov go as well.
However, I think the Flyers want to bring them back into the fold and put out their best in-house roster possible for another trial period. They have enough room for their prospects to not only develop next season but play a large role, while instilling a top-6 that could include Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny, Cam Atkinson, Joel Farabee, Morgan Frost, and Owen Tippett.
If they are going to be more patient in regard to this rebuild, there’s a good chance that both remain on the team for one more season. Of course, there are several downsides to, this such as: 1) 2 years remaining is far more valuable than a 1-year rental, 2) a down season could impact the trade value, and 3) injuries can come into the picture and derail the move and subsequent package.
One thing that we should have learned by now is that defensemen will always be a hot commodity, and the Provorov’s of the world will always net you a good t0 great package in return. If the Flyers decided to hold onto him for one more season and traded him as a 1-year rental in 2024, the framework of his deal can be compared to the likes of:
- Dmitry Orlov was a part of a three-team trade that also sent Garnet Hathaway to the Boston Bruins from the Washington Capitals for rental Craig Smith, 2023 1st round pick, 2024 3rd round pick, and 2025 2nd round pick
- Tony DeAngelo was acquired by the Philadelphia Flyers alongside a 2022 7th round pick from the Carolina Hurricanes for a 2023 3rd round pick, a 2024 2nd round pick, and a 2022 4th round pick
- The Boston Bruins acquired Hampus Lindholm and Kodie Curran from the Anaheim Ducks for John Moore, Urho Vaakanainen, a 2022 1st round pick, a 2023 2nd round pick, and a 2024 2nd round pick
- The Florida Panthers acquired Ben Chiarot from the Montreal Canadiens for prospect Ty Smilanic, a 2022 4th round pick, and a 2023 1st round pick
- The Columbus Blue Jackets traded Seth Jones, a 2022 6th round pick, and a 2021 first round pick to the Chicago Blackhawks for a conditional 2022 1st round pick, 2021 1st round pick, 2021 2nd round pick, and prospect Adam Boqvist
- The Philadelphia Flyers acquired Rasmus Ristolainen from the Buffalo Sabres for Robert Hagg, a 2022 2nd round pick, and a 2021 1st round pick
The trades involving Dmitry Orlov, Hampus Lindholm, and Ben Chiarot were done at the trade deadline, so the packages were a little less fruitful than what could be received if the deal took place in the offseason. 50% salary retention also took place with each individual to facilitate the trade mid-season and net a better return. As we can tell from the offseason trades – even with 1-year rentals or pending RFAs – the net return can be large, but we already know that as Flyers fans since we were on the wrong side of 2 deals.
If the Flyers traded him this summer, these are some examples of defensemen that were traded with term:
- Filip Hronek was traded by the Detroit Red Wings to the Vancouver Canucks alongside a 4th round pick in 2023 for a 2023 1st round pick and a 2023 2nd round pick.
- Jakob Chychrun went from the Arizona Coyotes to the Ottawa Senators for a conditional 2023 1st round pick, conditional 2024 2nd round pick, and a 2026 2nd round pick
- Mattias Ekholm was shipped to the Edmonton Oilers to the Nashville Predators alongside a 2024 6th round pick for Tyson Barrie, prospect Reid Schaefer, 2023 1st round pick, and a 2024 4th round pick
- Jake McCabe was traded by the Chicago Blackhawks alongside Sam Lafferty, a 2024 5th round pick, and a 2025 5th round pick to the Toronto Maple Leafs for Joey Anderson, Pavel Gogolev, a conditional 2025 1st round pick, and a 2026 2nd round pick
- Nils Lundkvist was traded by the New York Rangers to the Dallas Stars for a 2023 1st round pick and a 2025 4th round pick
There were some instances where salary was retained, including Jake McCabe having 50% retained and Mattias Ekholm having 4% retained.
Take Provorov out of the lineup and there’s a huge drop-off in talent without him. He is the minute-munching anchor that has averaged anywhere between 23-25 minutes a night since his sophomore season, and without him, the likes of Sanheim, York, and Ristolainen have to step up a notch and perhaps play outside their comfort zone.
We have already seen what happened to Ristolainen when he was a top-4 defenseman in 2021-22, Travis Sanheim is either playing unbelievably well or wavering through confidence and is playing like a shell of himself, and Cam York only has 80+ games under his belt but would be prime for huge responsibilities.
With Provorov staying in 2023-24, the Flyers could field a defense corps of (No DeAngelo and in-house options only):
- Ivan Provorov
- Travis Sanheim
- Cam York
- Rasmus Ristolainen
- Nick Seeler
- Ronnie Attard
- Egor Zamula
- Emil Andrae
Without Provorov but with DeAngelo (in-house options):
- Travis Sanheim
- Cam York
- Tony DeAngelo
- Rasmus Ristolainen
- Nick Seeler
- Ronnie Attard
- Egor Zamula
- Emil Andrae
Without Provorov and DeAngelo (in-house options):
- Travis Sanheim
- Cam York
- Rasmus Ristolainen
- Nick Seeler
- Ronnie Attard
- Egor Zamula
- Emil Andrae
If the Flyers committed to a full tear down rebuild, then by all means jettison both Provorov and Konecny if you feel that is the right move. If the Flyers are taking a more patient approach, then there is no rush in trading either of them right now.
In saying that, it also boils down to the player himself, and last year was a lot rockier for Provorov and it seemed like both sides were at their wit’s end. There was a report that Provorov had rubbed his teammates the wrong way, couldn’t take criticism well, wasn’t taken off the power play because of how he would’ve received it, and didn’t have a great end-of-season interview with the media. He looked angrier and more pissed off, he played like he felt he had to take all the burden on himself, and it wore him down emotionally, mentally, and physically.
This season he improved in many facets of his game, Tortorella used him to the best of his capabilities, was taken off the power play for the majority of the season, and returned to being the shot blocking, minute-munching, top-pair defenseman we need and have missed since 2019-20. His point totals continue to decline, but that’s something that will eventually right itself when the team around him improves – whether that’s in Philadelphia or elsewhere.
Another important factor in regard to keeping him is that he would do wonders for Cam York’s developmen,t because if he’s no longer there, and assuming the Flyers don’t necessarily find his replacement right away, York is going to be tasked to playing top-pair minutes with a mid-level partner. York has the potential to be great, he has already shown that in flashes, but I don’t think he’s ready quite yet to shoulder the burden of the Flyers defense, the same way Provorov has been doing it since his rookie season. There really isn’t a negative factor in keeping him for another season because York will eventually assume top-pair minutes and duties, but he’s a little inexperienced to undertake that on his own right now.
If DeAngelo remains, he should not assume top-pair duties and continue playing with Seeler, Ristolainen and Sanheim could very well team up again on the second pair, leaving a massive hole at the top. The Flyers could try and configure things around by giving $6.25 million AAV-Sanheim top pair duties with York, then give one of the prospects a run with Ristolainen on the second pair, but regardless of the situation, Provorov’s 23-25 minutes a game in nearly every situation will have to be matched by someone.
The Flyers are going to get several trade offers this summer and as they have always said, they need to be “blown away” to trade players like Provorov and Konecny. I can see Brière and Tortorella playing the waiting game with him as they look to subtract elsewhere first – also never forgetting that they are not trying to tear anything down. At some point though, these rumours will finally come to fruition, and if things continue to digress, expect Provorov to be dealt in 2024 by the latest. As a rental and with the possibility of having half his salary retained, the asking price will be relatively high and reasonable.
If the Sabres could get the Flyers to unload a first and a second-round pick for Ristolainen, or if the Canadiens could net a first, a fourth, and a prospect for Chiarot, the new front office of the Flyers should be licking their chops.
