I think we can all collectively agree that the Philadelphia Flyers aren’t going to be sniffing playoff success for the next few seasons.
We wanted change and they’ve delivered so far with a fiery head coach whose system has finally taken shape, a new general manager that has an eye for modernism, and a front office that is assuredly going to be restructured and remodeled this summer. The remaining task is the on-ice entertainment and what the roster turnover will look like because Daniel Briere is going to have to make corresponding changes.
The tank-for-Bedard-sweepstakes was a fun idea to gallivant about, but it was never really in grasp. The Columbus Blue Jackets, San Jose Sharks, Anaheim Ducks, and Chicago Blackhawks were always going to be very bad. The Arizona Coyotes and Montreal Canadiens were supposed to follow suit but both clubs have had respective streaks where they fell out of the bottom-4 as well. The Flyers have shown flashes of brilliance – albeit not as consistently as we would have liked to have seen – but even when they were losing, it wasn’t from a lack of effort. The scoring chances were there, the opportunities were ripe for the taking, but it was the lack of confidence and general talent that cost them game after game, loss after loss.
Even going back to their stretch of losses before they jumped ahead to finish off their 5-1-1 homestand run, some of those games could’ve easily been victories for the Flyers. Including the opening game of the homestand against Vegas, the Flyers went 1-7-1 in the previous 9 games, but their CF% was 49.2%, their FF% was 50.3%, they only created 14 less chances than they conceded, but they only scored 15 goals in those 9 games. They fired 256 shots, which was good for 28.4 per game but clicked at a 5.8% rate.
You compare that to their most recent stretch of points from March 17th to March 30th, and they actually played worse comparatively. They created 91 less chances than they conceded, their CF% was 43.1%, their FF% was 43.8%, but their PDO was 107.7 (compared to 95.0), their power play struck at a 33% clip, and they finally jumped on their offensive opportunities with good goaltending and defense behind them. It’s not ideal, but it just goes to show that with a little bit of puck luck things could be drastically different.
Now in saying that, it also shows the lack of talent that this team currently has. With Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson out of the lineup, and Travis Konecny also missing until Saturday, you’re essentially missing your top-line, around 90 goals, and collectively somewhere in the range of 200 points. They’re power play specialists, they all play important roles on the penalty kill, they would vastly improve the 3-on-3 overtime units and provide unreal depth.
It hasn’t always been sunshine and rainbows for the young kids, but they’ve proven their worth this season and have really embraced the hard-nosed, fiery, effort-filled play that John Tortorella wanted to instill from day one. You add forwards like Owen Tippett, Morgan Frost, Noah Cates, Joel Farabee, and Tyson Foerster to the mix with Konecny, Couturier, and Atkinson, and things look a lot better.
To get there, the Flyers have to cut the dead weight that currently exists, and unfortunately that’s pointed towards players like Kevin Hayes and James van Riemsdyk. The latter will most likely walk into free agency, but the former will be tricky to deal with this summer. There was quite the amount of interest ahead of the trade deadline for Hayes – contingent on the Flyers retaining salary – but the deal never materialized because of Chuck Fletcher’s hesitancy on retaining and a deal of this “magnitude” is better suited for the offseason when things are less strict surrounding the salary cap.
Hayes is a fantastic teammate and person, but his on-ice play has been rather abysmal after a torrid start to the season. The first-time All-Star had 15 goals and 45 points in his first 49 games and was well on his way to smashing his previous career-highs. He endured one stretch where he struggled to put up points – 0 goals and 2 assists in 9 games from the 9th of December to the 31st – but for the most part he was a consistent performer alongside Konecny.
Hayes’ 200-foot game was troubling and there were signs of laziness, apathy, and lackadaisical effort, but that was matched by his scoring, so they offset in theory. Since then, he has scored 2 goals and 8 points in 25 games, averaging 16:43 of ice time a night, is a minus-11, and has gone 23 games without a goal. Before recording assists in back-to-back games, he had gone 10 games with only 2 assists recorded. He is no longer a top-6 option for the club as Morgan Frost and Noah Cates have usurped him and being a $7.142 million 3C is rather expensive, even for a rebuilding team.
There were reports that intimated a trade between the Columbus Blue Jackets was in the works before Chuck Fletcher was let go. Elliotte Friedman made sure to mention that those trade talks are in still on the table but once more, salary retention is the biggest sticking point. Anywhere in the 25-30% – $1.78 million to $2.142 million – range of salary retention won’t necessarily hurt the Flyers, but it would give them more space for depth pieces and younger players to roam free.
Morgan Frost and Noah Cates should be re-signed this summer, as they have fortified themselves as young building blocks for the future, and when Sean Couturier returns, the Flyers have their designated 3 centres. Scott Laughton is always an interesting option, seen as the Flyers’ utility man since he can play either wing or centre if need be. Elliot Desnoyers or Tanner Laczynski could be seen as in-house 4C options.
On the wing, the Flyers would have Laughton, Travis Konecny, Joel Farabee, Cam Atkinson, Owen Tippett, and Tyson Foerster – which could complete their top-9. Leaving Nicolas Deslauriers and insert name to fill out the roster. That extra spot could be won by Bobby Brink – who currently has 23 points in 36 games for the Lehigh Valley Phantoms since returning from injury – or Olle Lycksell, who have excelled this season down in the minors.
The back-end is going to be a mystery, but the Flyers have players waiting in the wings down in Lehigh Valley in Ronnie Attard, Emil Andrae, and Egor Zamula. Adam Ginning has also quietly impressed the brass and Wyatte Wylie is another name that has caught the attention of the front office. Louie Belpedio is another name that has gone under the radar with 24 points through 65 games and is turning 27-years-old in May.
What they end up doing with Ivan Provorov is currently a mystery. He’s been on the chopping block for 3+ years, the Flyers old regime was extremely hesitant on moving him with his value at an all-time low – at times – and even balked at a few reasonable trade offers in the past, like with Patrik Laine and the Winnipeg Jets. They want Provorov to be the anchor, they want him to be the player they expected from draft-day onwards, and they have kept him partially because after him, there is a severe drop-off in talent.
He’s been quietly playing very well over the last few months and part of that has to do with the fact that they finally found him a defensive partner in Cam York. He is going to be the focal point of the backend for years to come and if they do keep Provorov around, that should be the top-pair moving forward.
Travis Sanheim is not going anywhere because no team is going to touch that 8-year contract that kicks in next season. Rasmus Ristolainen is the pill you have to swallow, and you have to take the good with the bad when it comes to the hulking Finn. He has also shown decent chemistry with Sanheim, where he hasn’t been abhorrent. Nick Seeler has been the surprise of the defensemen and is signed through next season and he’s been paired with Tony DeAngelo for the better part of the second half.
Seeler attracted enough interest at the deadline, where teams will still be interested in his services over the summer, DeAngelo can be looked at as a rental next year since he will be hitting free agency at the end of the 2023-24 season, and once again, Provorov’s situation seems to be 50/50 at the moment with the Flyers weighing out the pros and cons.
Either which way, they have 3 really good young options on the Phantoms waiting for their opportunity, and they have a few more who can turn into dependable options for the lower pairings. Their offensive options are rather good as well – good in terms of youth and potential – and with another pick in the top-7 range they should only add to that with Zach Benson, Will Smith, Oliver Moore, and Eduard Sale all names to consider in that 5-8 range.
The future is not as bleak when you dissect what they have at their disposal and what their timeline actually is. Players like Cutter Gauthier, Samuel Ersson, Brink, Foerster, York, Attard, Andrae, Desnoyers, and whoever they draft this year will be building blocks on top of the young players they currently have that have impressed this season in Tippett, Frost, Cates, and most recently Farabee.
Then you add in players like Couturier and Atkinson – and Konecny if he is also not traded – and the offense is not half-bad, if and when they are healthy.
