Heading into the 2024-25 season, one of the biggest question marks – if not the biggest – was whether or not the goaltending would hold up with Samuel Ersson, Ivan Fedotov, and potentially Aleksei Kolosov waiting in the wings.
As the Philadelphia Flyers entered the holiday break on a very low note in regards to the goaltending, the organization is assuredly hoping for a bounce-back effort from Ersson in short order, otherwise it might be time to bring back Fedotov in his stead for a little bit.
Goaltending has always been a crutch and it will seemingly always be a crutch, at least for the foreseeable future. While we have seen good stretches from all 3 netminders, there is very little consistency from either option, and while the defense can be blamed for some of it, they haven’t been able to come up with that “key” save.
For his career, Ersson has appeared in 80 games and has started 75 of them, owns a 36-28-9 record with a .888 SV% and a 2.95 GAA. On the season he currently stands in at 7-6-2 with a .872 SV% and a 3.28 GAA, numbers that have him sitting 2nd-last in SV% ahead of just Connor Ingram and the 5th-worst GAA with goalies who have played a minimum of 12 games.
Kolosov hasn’t been that much better as he has a .878 SV% and a 3.34 GAA in 12 contests, while Fedotov carries a 3.48 GAA and a .877 SV% in 10 games. Unsurprisingly with numbers so bleak, the Flyers entered Monday’s contest dead last in the NHL in SV%, 4th-last in GAA, and bottom-3 in a lot of the analytical categories.
Ersson started of the season with a so-so effort as he sported a 4-2-1 record in his first 8 games with a pedestrian .897 SV% and a middle of the pack 2.50 GAA. He recorded 3 outings with a save percentage above 92% but also had 4 games with a save percentage below 90%.
He sustained a lower-body injury mid-game at the start of November and he ended up re-aggravating it upon his return. However in the 8 games since the initial injury, Ersson has put up a 3-4-1 record, a GAA close to 4 goals per game, and a save percentage hovering around 84%. Within that stretch he has only seen his save percentage hover above 90% twice and they both came in his first 2 games back from injury.
Ersson showed flashes of brilliance in his first two seasons with the club, including his very first stint in national hockey league as well as his time as Carter Hart’s backup in 2023-24. To start his career he went 5-0-0 in 7 games with a .918 SV% and a GAA just above 2 goals per game, which also included a 5-start run where he posted a scintillating .943 SV% and just 8 goals allowed.
He was demoted back to the minors before a brief recall to the NHL again where things didn’t necessarily go the same way, but he still ended on a decent note heading into the 2023-24 season.
As Hart’s backup, Ersson’s play was so defiant that it had many clamouring for him to take over the crease permanently as well as being Hart’s immediate successor. In 20 games before his departure, Ersson went 12-5-3 with a .911 SV% and a 2.25 GAA with 3 shutouts, which also included a 15-game run where he posted a .931 SV% and a 1.87 GAA to go along with an 11-2-2 record.
From the moment he was forced into the starting role, he finished on an 11-14-4 run with a .875 SV% and a 2.87 GAA. Mixed in was an abysmal 12-game run that essentially led to their demise in the playoff picture when he posted a .835 SV% and a GAA creeping up to 4 goals per game to go along with a 3-6-2 record.
While fatigue played a part at the end of the season, his numbers weren’t particularly sparkling when he took over for Hart right away either. In the first 4 games he allowed 15 goals on 83 shots and he ended up with a .875 SV% and a GAA of 3 leading in the month of March.
Overall, it was a tale of two seasons with a 20-game run that had many thinking he was ready to supplant Hart as the starter versus a 31-game stretch where it was hard to tell whether or not it was inexperience, fatigue, or overall game play that hindered his finish to the 2023-24 campaign.
The bounce-back effort we were hoping for has not been realized to date and over his last 6+ games, it’s very hard not to pin the tail on the donkey. A lot of the time defensive miscues and errors can come to the forefront, and while the Flyers’ defense hasn’t been great, they’re not completely at fault.
Ersson looked very rusty in his first game back from the re-aggravation when he allowed 4 goals against Utah in a losing effort, however the egregious turnover at the end of that game while on the power play was certainly not his fault. He then allowed 3 goals on 18 shots in a victory against Columbus with 2 of those goals coming later in the third period with the game wrapped up.
He then allowed 3 goals on 21 shots against Minnesota and while not particularly tested all that much, he failed to come up with a key stop. He followed that up with a 5-goal blunder against Detroit on 23 shots, where turnovers and miscues led to a couple goals.
Although he won his next matchup, it was sparked by a massive third period comeback, where the Flyers still had to overcome three deficits. Finally, Monday’s effort against Pittsburgh was tough because their top-line made easy work of the Flyers but Ersson was out of position on a lot of those goals and even when the Flyers cut it back to a 1-goal deficit, he allowed a backbreaker with 72 seconds left in the second period before being pulled.
John Tortorella clarified his goaltending hierarchy earlier this month with Ersson as the defacto starter, Kolosov his backup, and Fedotov as the healthy scratch. He even doubled-down on it when asked if he had any changes in mind in between the crease with Ersson struggling.
It’s one thing to let Ersson play out of his own slump, but we’re reaching a point of no return with January right around the corner. If you’re so quick to bench Fedotov for a bad game here and there, why is Ersson’s leash so loose in comparison? On top of the fact that Fedotov was finally turning a corner as well.
The hulking netminder went 4-1-1 in 6 games with a .909 SV% and a 2.66 GAA in a 6-game stretch in the month of November. Fedotov made one more start, which came a week after his previous one, where he allowed 2 goals on 7 shots against Florida before being pulled before the second period started. He has not seen the ice since.
The Flyers head out on a lengthy road trip coming out of the break with pit stops in Anaheim, Los Angeles, San Jose, Vegas, and then back east with a date against Toronto in the first matchup of a home-and-home. The post-holiday road trip has always been notoriously tough on the Flyers – or any team for that matter – but Ersson did come out of it with flying colours two years ago.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Ersson reclaim the net once they come out of the break and potentially the first game of their back to back set against Anaheim, which would be an easier matchup in contrast to Los Angeles. However, no matter which game he gets the call for, if things remain the same and he allows backbreaking goals and has a SV% well below 89%, then questions need to be asked.
Fedotov should not be waiting in the wings for this long without another chance to show us what he has to offer. With Ersson slipping by the game, Tortorella’s patience could be running thin but this upcoming break certainly came at the most opportune time for the Swedish netminder to clear his head and come back with a bang.
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