With the Philadelphia Flyers having finished the regular season with the 4th-worst record, all eyes now shift to the NHL’s Draft Lottery which is scheduled to take place on the 5th of May.
The Flyers certainly didn’t make things easy for those hoping for the best draft lottery odds possible. After dropping 11 of 12 games preceding John Tortorella’s firing, the Flyers were within striking distance of Nashville for third to last.
However, a run of victories with Brad Shaw behind the bench pinned the Flyers in a situation where they could have gone as high as 7th-worst with a victory in their final game of the season against Buffalo.
The Sabres made easy work of the Flyers through 40 minutes but the Orange and Black almost completed a furious comeback to at least force overtime, which would have drastically shifted their odds to either 6th or 7th. In the end, the Sabres held on and Flyers fans were able to exhale.
The NHL implemented new draft lottery rules that were incorporated last year to mitigate the possibility of massive jumps to claim a top-2 pick – like we saw in years past when the Flyers jumped 11 spots and drafted Nolan Patrick in 2017.
The last draft lottery didn’t see any changes taken place, which could be good news if history repeats itself with the Flyers sitting in 4th. Slipping even a pick could be disastrous if they have their eyes set on someone specific within the top-4 picks.
Defenseman Matthew Schaefer seems like the odds-on favourite to go first despite injuries ending his season short. Michael Misa follows with James Hagens, Porter Martone, and Anton Frondell rounding out the expected top-5.
The San Jose Sharks have a 25.5% chance of landing the first overall pick with the bottom-rung teams not able to participate in the lottery since a team can leap a maximum of 10 spots.
Chicago is next at 13.5%, followed by Nashville at 11.5%, the Flyers at 9.5%, Boston at 8.5%, Seattle at 7.5%, Buffalo at 6.5%, Anaheim at 6.0%, Pittsburgh at 5.0%, the New York Islanders at 3.5%, and the New York Rangers pick 3.0%.
Beyond the Sharks, there’s a massive clump of teams within just a few percentages of one another for the chance at jumping to first overall. However as we witnessed last year, no one moved all through the lottery, leaving the Sharks in another position to claim the first overall pick.
Nevertheless, based on the new rules, if that were to happen this year, they won’t be able to claim another first overall pick in the next 3 years. No team can have more than 2 first overall selections within a 5-year span.
With that being said, those odds represent the possibility of claiming the first overall pick. The Flyers also carry a 9.5% of claiming the second overall pick, 0.3% chance for the third overall pick, 15.4% for the fourth overall pick, 44.5% of dropping to fifth, and 20.8% chance for sixth overall.
All draft lottery odds can be found at tankathon.com.
If we can assume the Flyers remain in 4th and Schaefer and Misa are off to San Jose and Chicago, that would leave Hagens, Martone, and Frondell as the next likely candidates for the Flyers to truly target.
Of course, they would have to wait on who goes third overall but you’re left in a great position regardless with any 2 of the 3 still on the board. Even if they slip to 5th, they should still be in a position to nab either one of them.
For the centre-needy Flyers, Frondell and Hagens would be best fit and probably best player available but we also can’t forget Martone, despite him being a winger.
James Hagens
Starting off with Hagens, the 5’11”, 180-pound centre had himself a terrific season with the U.S. National Development Team Program in 2023-24 as he registered 47 points in 26 games in the USHL for the USNDTP, while also finishing with 102 points in 58 games for the U18 team.
He then committed to Boston College where he tallied a point per game with 11 goals and 37 points in 37 games this past season. He was slotted in as the second best prospect on TSN’s Bob McKenzie’s recent draft ranking in January but has seen Misa usurp him in the final stretch run as advertised in the Central Scouting Rankings.
Hagens is a great skater and gifted playmaker and would be the perfect 1C for Matvei Michkov once he makes the leap to the NHL.
At one point in time, Hagens was looked upon as a number one pick but falling to third or fourth shouldn’t be seen as a slight considering team needs and true number one defensemen being extremely rare and hard to find.
Anton Frondell
On the flip side, Frondell is another pivot the Flyers could be looking to draft, especially if Hagens is already off the board. The Swedish centre enjoyed a fantastic draft year that saw him outpace and outscore William Nylander and David Pastrňák at the same level and age.
The 6’0”, nearly 200-pound centre has risen quite a bit since the start of the year and is seen as a complete two-way player with great offensive instincts. The Flyers have a tendency to lean towards the complete, two-way, 200-foot players but Frondell also carries a great shot, which is sometimes hard to find in a centre.
Porter Martone
Which then leaves us with Martone, who has consistently been in the top-4 since the beginning of the year, with some having him going as high as #3.
The 6’3”, nearly 210-pound winger plays for the Brampton Steelheads of the OHL and secured 37 goals and 98 points in just 57 games, which was an increase of 27 points in 3 less games compared to this previous season.
Martone fits the prototypical build of a power forward with his 6’3” frame. He gets to the dirty areas, drives hard to the net, is a disruptive figure for the opposition, and carries a lethal shot. While the Flyers have a lot of wingers at their disposal, they don’t have a Martone-type talent in the system.
As we’ve seen in recent years, especially from Anaheim, some teams at the very top can go a little off the board with their selections, which then has a trickle down effect for the rest of the teams. Any of these three prospects can find themselves drafted 2nd overall but as long as the Flyers remain in the top-5 and don’t fall to 6th, they should come out of it with an absolute stud.
Hagens seemed like a pipe dream earlier in the year but now he’s very possible in the off chance that the team selecting third overall has a fancy towards Martone or a different centre. Same can be said for Frondell, who truly seems like the safest pick while also delivering very high upside.
If both centres are gone the Flyers could still look towards Caleb Desnoyers, Jake O’Brien, or Roger McQueen, but Martone’s upside would be very hard to ignore and would assuredly be BPA at that point.
A lot of these questions can and will be answered once we figure out the draft board after the lottery has taken place. There’s a cumulative 65.3% chance the Flyers drop from 4th and select either 5th or 6th, which could be seen as a disaster.
Nevertheless, if last year was any guide, there shouldn’t be much of any movement up or down, which will bode well for the Orange and Black as they look to add a high quality prospect within the prospect pool as soon as possible.
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